How To Be A Successful Investor - William Cai

03/08/2026

ACWI reversed and had good close last week. Is it a sustainable recovery or a dead cat bounce?

26/07/2026

Tactical Plays — Indonesia & Vietnam Offer Potential Double-Digit Gains

The Indonesian index has been forming a base since early June, getting ready to bounce towards its 200-day moving average.
The Vietnam ETF has fallen to its lower boundary, but if it can hold and recover from around this level, it could present an attractive mean-reversion trade. However, last Friday's price action was negative, and it would be prudent to give it more time, as there remains a potential downside risk of around 18% from current levels.
These are considered volatile markets, and one should exercise caution by managing risk through proper position sizing and stop-loss rules suited to their individual risk tolerance.

26/07/2026

Following my post on 20 July, global tech (IXN) has failed to move above its 50 day moving average line last week. It ended its Friday session negative on a higher than average volume. Nasdaq was in a similar situation and the probability for a 7 to 12% fall from here for the two indexes have increased. If you are heavily into technology stocks with little gains as buffer, you may want to manage your risk accordingly.

24/07/2026

Following up on my 14 July post, “How Important Is It to Avoid the Next Bear Market?”

The table below shows the performance of the Infinity Global Stock Index Fund as at June 2026, in SGD terms. The fund’s inception date was 31 May 2000, shortly before one of the worst bear markets in recent history.

Its annualised return over the past 10 years was 11.9%. However, if you had invested in the fund at inception 26 years ago, your annualised return would have fallen to just 4.9%—and the fund declined by more than 50% twice during that period.

With valuations currently at elevated levels, investors expecting the same 11.9% annualised return over the next decade may be disappointed. Some may argue that “this time is different” because artificial intelligence will drive future productivity growth, allowing the stock market to continue delivering exceptionally strong returns.

As for me, I would not count on that. My priority is to avoid losing a large portion of my capital in the next bear market so that i can do better and let my HNW clients and myself sleep in peace.

20/07/2026

NEW MONEY

ACWI and IXN (Global Tech) failed to break higher last week and they are hanging on a cliff with a double digit downside risk. If one wishes to buy and hold, you can do it as long as you have profits as a buffer.

However, if you have entered the indexes with new money like i have, i am starting with zero profits and I want to get my risk reward ratio right. I want to make the account profitable as soon as possible but its very important to keep losses small to begin with. Therefore, if price fall below last Friday's low, I would be out.

How much to sell will depend one's exposure but for me, i try to keep losses on my portfolio to max 2 to 3% so that i can have an easy recovery. What's you plan?

14/07/2026

How Important Is It to Avoid the Next Bear Market?

The Shiller P/E ratio (also known as the CAPE ratio) shown in the chart measures the current price of the S&P 500 relative to the average of the last 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings.

It is now at 41.85, close to its previous peak of 44.19 reached in December 1999. This indicator does not tell us when the next bear market will occur. Nor does it need to reach or exceed its previous high before the market crashes.

What it does tell us is that expected returns over the next 10 years are likely to be lower than what investors have enjoyed in recent years. While the buy-and-hold strategy has worked exceptionally well over the past 17 years, there is no guarantee it will deliver the same results over the next 17.

The next decade may require a different investment approach from the last. Are you prepared?

Source https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

10/07/2026

S&P 500, MAGS and ACWI – Ready to Break Higher. Good time for new money.

The S&P 500 has broken out of a symmetrical triangle, increasing the probability of a continued rally. Although the index declined in June, its Advance-Decline Line formed a higher low and subsequently reached new highs. This suggests that market leadership has broadened, with capital rotating from the Magnificent Seven (MAG7) into other segments of the market.

As of 9 July, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has climbed back above its 200-day moving average and formed a bullish engulfing candlestick. This bullish price action is likely to provide further support for the S&P 500 and the MSCI ACWI, increasing the likelihood that both indices will advance to new highs.

However, if the S&P 500 breaks below its June swing low, it would increase the probability that a deeper correction is underway. Until then, the primary trend remains constructive, and the technical evidence continues to favour higher prices.

05/07/2026

Getting on with the times...my 1st Video post

Https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaZY01GsTKg/?igsh=ajBhcDkxamsxbHMz

29/06/2026

Mark Mobius, the face of Franklin Templeton for the longest time, and the champion of Emerging Market investing for the longest time, passed away in April 2026. RIP

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Jkz7nBrbu/

Mark Mobius died at 89; a pioneer in emerging markets investing with Franklin Templeton. Known as "Bald Eagle," he traveled extensively, visiting factories and distributors to identify investments.

10/06/2026

Global Tech appears increasingly overextended. Market breadth has been deteriorating since May, with the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages trending lower, even as the index pushes higher. This divergence suggests the risk of a near-term pullback.

Although the longer-term uptrend remains intact, taking partial profits here is a reasonable strategy. Waiting for prices to break below the 12-month moving average before acting could result in surrendering a substantial portion of accumulated gains.

Of course, any correction may prove temporary, and Global Tech could quickly resume its upward trajectory. The important thing is to have a disciplined framework for identifying when to get back in.