09/08/2026
Nice Analysis
$SPCX IS ENTERING ITS MOST IMPORTANT PRICE DISCOVERY PHASE!!
$SPCX has fallen sharply from its post-IPO peak, putting the stock into a completely different market environment.
The historical comparisons are interesting.
Meta 2012: $38 IPO → roughly $17 low, about -55%.
Palantir 2020: roughly $45 → near $6, an approximately -87% drawdown.
Both eventually recovered — but their paths were completely different.
That’s the important lesson.
A large decline does not automatically mean a bottom.
For $SPCX, I’m watching three zones:
$138 → major resistance
$111 → current decision area
$84 → deeper support zone
A move from $138 → $84 would represent roughly 39% downside.
A recovery from $84 → $138 would require roughly 64% upside.
That creates a very different risk/reward equation depending on where the stock actually finds demand.
The next phase could be defined by volume, liquidity, earnings and institutional participation.
Not by a predetermined script.
The biggest signal would be simple:
Lower volatility + stronger volume + higher lows.
That would suggest the market is beginning to stabilize.
Until then, the chart remains a high-volatility setup.
The bottom doesn’t have to look obvious.
Sometimes the most important signal is simply that the selling stops getting worse.
