Chartist’s Purge

18/03/2025

https://youtu.be/ucv8QCoqCLg?feature=shared

28/08/2024

The curve bear flattened as the US front end is pricing out expectations of an initial 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve. The implied probability for such a bigger move is now down to below 20%. The base case is now 25bp easing in September with a bit over 90bp of easing discounted until year-end.

That rate cuts are coming looks more certain and the Fed will likely use the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium to cement those views. That will likely continue to put a broader downward trend on rates, especially the front end. More near term though the question now centres on the size of the first cut. While the recent data has the market leaning towards 25bp, our economist would not rule out a larger 50bp cut just yet. Key will be the next jobs data early in September ahead of the Fed meeting.

Firm US data has offset some of the recent declines in US Treasury and Bund yields and makes a 50bp cut in September less likely.

28/08/2024

The USD/JPY continues to trade “relatively sideways,” with sellers stepping in ahead of Friday's release of crucial US inflation data. Nevertheless, from a technical point of view, the pair will re-test August’s 5 daily low of 141.69 if traders clear some hurdles on the way south.

As of writing, momentum favors sellers, as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains bearish. With this said, USD/JPY's first support level would be the August 26 swing low of 143.44. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the psychological 143.00 figure, followed by the 142.00 figure, before challenging the August, as mentioned above, 5-cycle low.

Conversely, if USD/JPY clears the 144.00 figure, the pair could aim upward and challenge higher prices. The next resistance would be the Tenkan-Sen at 146.42, followed by the 147.00 mark.

https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/usdjpy

28/08/2024

The financial and capital markets remain unstable.

The BoJ needs to monitor these developments with utmost vigilance.

BoJ also intends to carefully examine the impact these market.

Developments at home and abroad have on the outlet for economic activity and prices, the risks surrounding the outlook, and the degree of confidence in the outlook.

BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary accommodation if it has growing confidence that its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized.

Will conduct monetary policy as appropriate to achieve the 2% inflation target in sustainable and stable manner while closely communicating with market participants and other stakeholders.

Needs to closely monitor developments in recent market volatilities including weaker stocks and stronger Yen.

BoJ should continue its efforts to refine its approaches to estimate the neutral rate for Japan, and use the results as a useful point of reference.

But BoJ has no other choice but to chart a way forward examining how the economy and prices respond as it conducts monetary policy.

Estimation of the neutral interest rate would not automatically show the right policy path for Japan, at least at the moment.

Our baseline scenario for fiscal year 2025, 2026 envisions a reasonably balanced state where the inflation rate is consistent with the price stability target, and the economic growth is slightly above cruising speed.

The Yen recent appreciation may alleviate the import cost hike and profit squeeze many small and medium-size firms currently face.

But stronger Yen may lower the yen denominated profits of export industries and Japanese multinationals.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Wednesday that the financial and capital markets remain unstable and the Japanese central bank needs to monitor these developments with utmost vigilance.

28/08/2024

The crypto market experienced over $313 million in liquidations on Tuesday after Bitcoin plunged below $60K, per Coinglass data. Long traders have sustained 90% of the total liquidations worth $282 million, a magnitude above $31.36 million in short liquidations.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-asian-wrap-28-august-202408280152

28/08/2024

The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction above $2,500 per troy ounce on Wednesday, bolstered by the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, signalling “time has come” to begin lowering interest rates, supports the precious metal as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets.

Investors will take more cues from the Fed's Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speeches on Wednesday for some hints about the US interest rate path. The attention will shift to the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index data, which will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The better-than-estimated outcomes could lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the USD-denominated Gold price.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-gains-ground-near-the-all-time-high-amid-geopolitical-risks-fed-rate-cut-bets-202408280119

02/10/2023

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