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Hawkmont Research

At Hawkmont Capital, we make professional trading strategies accessible to everyone.

Hawkmont Research is an independent equity research publication focused on market structure, capital flows, and risk publishing slow, analytical frameworks, not forecasts, signals, or investment advice. Follow trades from our experienced market strategists and invest with the precision, control, and confidence of a professional.

27/04/2026

New research just published. Hawkmont Research initiates coverage on PayPal (PYPL) with a Sell rating and a $35 price target.

The branded checkout button that built PayPal into a $300 billion company is losing to Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Shop Pay.

Elon Musk just launched X Money with 600 million users. The company fired its CEO two months ago. And the stock still trades at $48 because a $6 billion buyback is holding the floor.

We break down why the decline is structural, not cyclical, and what the May 5 earnings report needs to show to change our mind.

Full report is free.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/the-button-nobody-clicks-why-paypal-s-branded-checkout-crisis-is-a-structural-problem-not-a-cyclic

Hawkmont Research | Equity Research | Digital Payments & Fintech April 22, 2026 | INITIATING COVERAGEThis report is produced independently by Hawkmont Research. No compensation was received from any company mentioned herein. All prices and market data as of April 22, 2026 unless otherwise noted. Thi...

13/04/2026

The SpaceX IPO is coming and everyone is talking about the same obvious stocks. We did the work on the ones nobody is covering.

Hawkmont Research just published a full institutional-grade deep-dive on six confirmed SpaceX suppliers: contract values, financial data, valuation analysis, and price targets. A UK RF technology company, a South Korean superalloy specialist, Taiwanese hardware manufacturers, and more.

Free to read. No paywalls. No advertisers. Just research.

Full report at https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/the-rocket-behind-the-rocket-spacex-ipo-supply-chain-stocks-2026-hidden-gem-suppliers-primed-to-pr

Hawkmont Research | Equity Research | Space Economy April 13, 2026 | INITIATING COVERAGEThis report is produced independently by Hawkmont Research. No compensation was received from any company mentioned herein. All prices and market data as of April 13, 2026 unless otherwise noted. This is not inve...

03/04/2026

New research from Hawkmont: The dollar is not losing its reserve currency status overnight, but the architecture being built around it is changing fast.

BRICS nations now hold over 6,000 tonnes of gold. China settles more than half its trade in yuan. A gold-backed settlement instrument called the Unit just entered pilot phase. And CIPS, China's alternative to SWIFT, grew 43% in 2024 alone.

Our latest macro strategy report breaks down every mechanism, every member's strategy, and what it all means for gold, oil, US Treasuries, and emerging market currencies.

Institutional-grade research. Link below.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/how-brics-countries-plan-to-reduce-dollar-dependence

Macro Strategy | Geopolitical Finance Classification: Institutional Distribution Only | April 2026Research Coverage: Global Macro / Geopolitical Finance / Reserve Currency Strategy Distribution: Macro Portfolio Managers, EM Specialists, Fixed Income Strategy, Commodities DesksThis report reflects an...

01/04/2026

New research report just published on Hawkmont Research.
York Space Systems (NYSE: YSS) went public in January 2026 at $34 per share and now trades at roughly $22 - a 35% decline that has put one of the most strategically important satellite manufacturers in America on investor watchlists.

York builds the satellites that form the backbone of the U.S. military's next-generation missile warning and communications architecture. It has won more PWSA contracts than any other vendor. It also carries real risks: near-total dependence on a single government customer, fixed-price contracts with a history of margin compression, and a private equity sponsor still holding majority control.

We rate YSS Neutral with a $28 price target. The full analysis - investment thesis, financial profile, competitive landscape, valuation scenarios, and specific upgrade triggers - is live now at the link below.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/york-space-systems-yss-the-broken-ipo-that-owns-the-pentagon-s-most-critical-satellite-program

Initiating Coverage | Hawkmont Research | April 2026HAWKMONT RESEARCH | EQUITY RESEARCH | NATIONAL SECURITY SPACEThe most important satellite manufacturing program in U.S. defense history has one company that has won every tranche. That company just went public at $34 and trades at $22.Investment Th...

30/03/2026

The most significant global energy disruption since 1973 is unfolding.

Hormuz traffic has collapsed.
Suez closure risk is rising.
Russia has banned gasoline exports.

Our latest Hawkmont Research briefing models the macro impact and outlines positioning across energy, shipping, currencies, and equities.

Probability-weighted oil: $142
Severe case: $195–$220

The market is not pricing the second chokepoint.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/dual-chokepoint-crisis-hormuz-closure-suez-risk-russian-gasoline-export-ban

The Most Significant Supply Disruption Since 1973. Here Is What It Means for Your Portfolio.Hawkmont Research | Energy Geopolitics | Macro | Commodities EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has imposed a de facto naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz since March 3, 2026, reduci...

29/03/2026

We just published our initiating coverage on ZenaTech (NASDAQ: ZENA) at Hawkmont Research, and this one is worth reading whether you follow defense tech or small-cap investing.

Here is the short version: ZenaTech is building a counter-UAS drone interceptor priced at under $5,000 per unit, targeting the same threat environment where a single Patriot missile costs up to $6 million. The math speaks for itself.

What makes it different from most defense concept stocks is that ZenaTech already has a real, growing business underneath it. Their Drone-as-a-Service rollup generated $7.73M in the first nine months of 2025, roughly 6x the prior year. That revenue funds the defense R&D without constant dilution.

We are initiating with Speculative Buy and a $7.00 price target. Full report linked.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/zenatech-zena-the-2-defense-stock-building-the-drone-interceptor-the-pentagon-actually-needs

Initiating Coverage | Hawkmont Research | March 2026Investment ThesisZenaTech (ZENA) presents a rare structure in the small-cap defense universe: a self-funding DaaS rollup that generates real and growing revenue today, while simultaneously incubating a portfolio of autonomous drone and counter-UAS....

26/03/2026

We just published our deepest supply chain analysis yet. Ondas Inc. is one of the fastest-moving defense technology stories in the market right now. 629% revenue growth, a Palantir partnership, and $1.55 billion in cash.

But the real question is who supplies the platform doing all of this?

We found 3 publicly traded companies, one in Norway, one in Germany, one in the U.S., that sit directly inside the Ondas ecosystem and haven't been fully priced by the market yet.

Read the full supplier ecosystem report at

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/ondas-inc-onds-the-supplier-ecosystem-report

For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

March 26, 2026HAWKMONT RESEARCH | EQUITY RESEARCH | SUPPLIER ECOSYSTEM DEEP DIVEMapping the Publicly Investable Supply Chain Behind the Defense Autonomous Platform Hawkmont Research | Defense Technology | Autonomous Systems | Supply Chain IntelligenceEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ondas Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) has t...

26/03/2026

New research from Hawkmont Research. Gold is selling off despite an active war between Iran, Israel, and the United States, and the reason goes much deeper than the headlines.

Our latest macro desk note breaks down the exact forces driving XAUUSD lower, including dollar strength, forced liquidation, crowded positioning unwinds, and why the traditional safe haven narrative is failing in this specific environment.

Read the full note at the link below.

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/xauusd-why-gold-is-falling-into-a-live-war

Macro Strategy Desk Note | March 2026 Hawkmont Research | Confidential. For Professional Investors Only.1. Executive Summary • Gold had already priced in elevated geopolitical risk during the pre-escalation drift higher. The actual kinetic event triggered a "sell the news" unwind from historically...

25/03/2026

Six acquisitions. One Palantir partnership. One European joint venture. One national border protection prime contract. All in 90 days.

Today, Hawkmont Research initiates coverage on Ondas Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) with an Overweight rating and a 12-month price target of $19.00, representing 74% upside from the March 25 closing price of $10.90.

The company reported 629% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025 and raised 2026 guidance to at least $375 million on March 23, more than doubling an outlook issued just two months ago.

The market is discounting this transformation because the ex*****on track record at this scale does not yet exist. That discount is the opportunity.

What makes ONDS structurally different from other autonomous systems companies:

The Palantir partnership embeds AIP directly into Ondas' System-of-Systems architecture, making Ondas platforms natively interoperable with the software stack that U.S. defense customers are already running. This is a procurement friction eliminator.

BIRD Aerosystems adds missile protection to the portfolio with a $79 million standalone backlog. The acquisition paid for itself before integration began.

ONBERG, the Ondas-Heidelberg joint venture in Germany, positions Ondas as a sovereign-grade European defense supplier at precisely the moment NATO procurement budgets are accelerating.

The border protection prime contract validates the System-of-Systems architecture at national scale, a reference program that unlocks a new class of sovereign government opportunities globally.

The risks are real. Integration complexity across six acquisitions is not trivial. Continued losses through mid-2026 will test investor patience. The stock's 1,106% twelve-month return means expectations are not modest.

But the balance sheet is impenetrable at $1.55 billion cash. The catalyst calendar for the next 90 days is dense. And Palantir does not sign three-program strategic alliances with companies it does not assess as genuinely scalable.

Full institutional report live at https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/ondas-inc-onds-the-autonomous-defense-platform-nobody-is-pricing-correctly

Capital moves before narratives do.

HAWKMONT RESEARCH | EQUITY RESEARCH | DEEP DIVE March 26, 2026From Drone Startup to Multi-Domain Defense Prime. A Structural Repricing OpportunityHawkmont Research | Defense Technology | Autonomous Systems | Small-Mid CapEXECUTIVE SUMMARYOndas Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) is no longer a drone startup. In the...

20/03/2026

Oil just blew past $100 a barrel and the Middle East tension isn’t cooling off anytime soon.

If you want real upside from this move, these 5 hidden-gem stocks are the ones smart money is quietly buying: FANG, DVN, COP, OXY and HAL.

Full article with catalysts, risks and why they’re different is linked below. Who’s adding energy exposure right now?

https://www.hawkmontresearch.com/post/top-5-stocks-to-benefit-from-the-rising-prices-in-oil-and-energy

Oil prices have exploded higher in March 2026. Brent crude has traded above $100 per barrel, with WTI frequently topping $90 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict and the near-shutdown of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That chokepoint carries roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil. Forecas...

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