17/06/2022
Is A Recession Coming?
Does it actually matter to your personal situation?
There has been a lot of talk about the big R-word but will this actually happen and if so should you care?
Technically a recession is identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
GDP is obviously are very big "average" calculation and can contain multiple industries that are doing very badly which might be balanced out by other industries doing very well.
For example, the tourism industry would have been in a recession during covid, while the property market was booming.
Now tourism is picking back up, and property not so much.
This is why, even if there is a big recession, it might not affect you at all. Because certain industries will be fine, others not so much.
Think about this;
If you have a stable job, in an industry that is always in demand like a nurse, teacher, police officer, tech, etc then as long as you keep your job or can easily find a new one then how does a recession affect you?
Probably not much different than if we weren't in a recession.
However there are other pieces of the puzzle; the cost of living crisis and being overleveraged with loans, mortgages, etc.
Obviously, if you earn the same and everything else costs more then things can get tough - but this isn't really the effects of a recession this is more to do with inflation caused by supply issues, the printing of free money, and bad government decisions.
Overleveraging is different and we are seeing great examples of this in the property market. Developers are paying too much for land, and then have to pay more than expected for materials. And then after all of that, they can't sell the properties for as much as they originally planned so they can't pay back their loans and the finance companies that they got the money from and so on..
For most of you; that probably isn't going to make too much of a difference to your life. But if you already have a mortgage and lots of other debts & then interest rates go up then you might be in trouble.
Or if you are in an industry that is at risk. (property is a big one).
So how can you prepare?
This is literally what rainy day funds are for.
So hopefully you have one.
And if you don't; start pulling in your spending and putting some money aside.
Don't take out any debt
And pay down the debt you do have.
If a recession is coming and you have already overleveraged yourself then something like this could make or break you.