29/05/2026
What happens to the NZ housing market over the next 10 years?
No one knows exactly.
Anyone who says they do is guessing.
But I do think the next decade in property will look very different from the last one.
For a long time, the simple view was:
“Buy property, wait, and it goes up.”
That has worked pretty well for a lot of people.
But I’m not sure the next 10 years will be that easy.
My view is this:
Good property will still do well.
Average property will probably track along.
Risky property will get found out.
And poor-quality property in average locations may not be the easy win people expect.
There are a few reasons for that.
Interest rates still matter. Even if rates move around, borrowing power is tighter than it was during the cheap-money years. Buyers are more cautious, and banks are looking harder at affordability.
Insurance is becoming a bigger deal. Flood risk, coastal exposure, slips, stormwater, rebuild costs... these things are not side issues anymore. A property that is hard or expensive to insure will not be valued the same way as one that is low-risk and easy to lend against.
AI will also change things. Not overnight, but over time. Some people will earn more, work differently, or move to lifestyle areas. Others may find their jobs or incomes under pressure. That will change where people want to live, what they can borrow, and what sort of homes hold demand.
Then there is the global stuff: wars, oil prices, inflation shocks, supply chains, migration, elections, and general uncertainty. NZ is a long way from a lot of it, but we are definitely not immune.
So where do I think prices are in 10 years?
Probably higher than today.
But not evenly.
I would be more confident in:
well-located family homes
good school zones
quality coastal or lifestyle property with low hazard risk
homes close to improving infrastructure
properties that suit downsizers, families, or flexible workers
land with scarcity or future options
I would be more cautious around:
poor-quality townhouses in overbuilt areas
apartments with body corp or remediation issues
flood-prone or hard-to-insure homes
properties that only work if prices keep rising
new builds priced too far above similar existing homes
The key question for buyers is not just:
“Can I afford this?”
It is:
“Is this the right property to own for the next 10 years?”
That means looking beyond the rate, the cashback, and the weekly repayment.
It means thinking about the property, the location, the risk, the exit plan, and how life might change.
I still believe property will be a strong long-term asset in New Zealand.
But I think the next decade will reward better decisions, not just any decision.
The people who do well will not be the ones who simply buy and hope.
They will be the ones who buy the right property, with the right structure, for the right reasons.
For an in-depth review of your options, book in a Clarity and Strategy Session with me at this link:
https://bookme.name/zanetorkington/lite/assessingyoursituation
