14/07/2024
๐ Positive Signs Ahead: Interest Rates Expected to Drop with New CPI Data This Week ๐
๐ฆ Optimism on RBNZ tone: There's a growing optimism about inflation control and the potential for interest rate cuts after the Reserve Bank's recent shift in tone
๐ Upcoming CPI data: We eagerly await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the three months to June 30, which could bring more good news.
๐ Current inflation rate: The annual rate has improved significantly to 4% in the year to March 31, down from a peak of 7.3% in June 2022, showing progress towards the RBNZ's target range of 1-3%.
๐ Economist forecasts: Positive predictions from ANZ and ASB suggest a 0.4% quarterly rise in CPI, bringing the annual figure to a manageable 3.3%-3.4%. Even the cautious Westpac forecasts a manageable 0.6% rise and 3.5% annually.
๐๏ธ ASB's outlook: ASB senior economist Mark Smith anticipates sub-3% inflation in the second half of 2024 and sees the potential for a 25-basis-point OCR cut in November.
๐ซ Non-tradeable inflation progress: We're seeing progress in reducing sticky, non-tradeable inflation, which measures goods and services not facing foreign competition.
๐ Tradeable vs. non-tradeable inflation: As per Stats NZ, Tradeable inflation has significantly decreased to 1.6% in the year to March 2024, while non-tradeable inflation is also trending positively at 5.8%.
๐ ANZ's expectation: A potential fall in non-tradeable inflation to 5.3% in Q2 would be a positive signal, potentially leading to earlier OCR cuts.
๐ Westpac's positive view: The strength in non-tradeable inflation in areas like insurance and utilities is being managed well, ensuring inflation expectations remain stable.
๐ญ Positive impact on discretionary spending: Despite previous pressures, there are signs of stabilization in domestic services, highlighting effective management by the RBNZ.
๐ Contact me today for personalized mortgage advice!
Bhavin
Refix Mortgage Adviser
021 233 0244