13/09/2024
VEGA UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 2024
New Zealand’s Economic Landscape:
• Interest Rate Cut and Its Impact. Last month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) made a significant move by lowering the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This marks the first cut in four years, signaling a shift in monetary policy. In response, banks across the country have followed suit, reducing interest rates on various financial products. This change is expected to bring some relief to mortgage holders, potentially easing household costs in the coming months.
• Commercial Property Market. The New Zealand commercial property market continues to face challenges, with several factors contributing to its soft performance: high interest rates (despite the recent cut), increased adoption of remote working, continued rise in online shopping. These trends are putting pressure on demand for commercial spaces, particularly in retail and office sectors.
Mortgage demand and financial hardship trends (August Centrix Report):
• Mortgage demand remains subdued, with home loan application enquiries down 1.5% year-on-year. Overall consumer credit demand is down 3% year-on-year. Auto loan demand saw a significant 22% drop, while credit card applications increased by 5% but remain 40% below pre-pandemic levels.
• Mortgage delinquencies. There was a slight improvement in mortgage delinquencies, with 21,000 home loans past due, a decrease of 500 from last month, though still up 12% year-on-year.
• Financial hardship cases increased by 27% to 13,850 in July, reflecting the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, though many consumers are responsibly managing their financial difficulties.
Market Shifts:
• Market Conditions Shift: New market conditions are creating a brighter outlook for small investors and relocating owner-occupiers.
• New-Builds vs. Existing Properties: Recent tax rule changes have lessened the distinction between new-builds and existing properties for some buyers, but LVR and DTI rules still favour new-builds, maintaining strong interest in this segment.
• Increased Share for New-Builds: The share of new-build purchases by mortgaged MPOs increased from around 25% in 2020 to over 30% in 2022 and has remained high through 2023 and 2024.
• First Home Buyers: Expected to maintain a strong presence due to access to KiwiSaver for deposits and strong hold on low deposit lending allowances.
• Investors: Potential for increased activity as the gap between mortgage rates and rental yields narrows. Possible shift towards existing stock. DTI rules may keep many focused on newbuilds.
• Movers: Potential increase in activity due to pent-up demand from recent years of inactivity and Improving conditions for selling current properties.
Harry Ghadiali
Mortgage Adviser
M: 020 450 4050
Email: [email protected]
*None of the above is intended to be financial advice so please discuss your situation with a financial adviser at Vega for your personal options.