30/05/2026
5 predictions I made before the budget and how many came true?
Nepal’s economic policy narrative may finally be shifting from short-term survival mode toward investment, productivity and structural reform.
A few days before the Budget, I wrote about 5 major expectations:
• Better tax administration instead of aggressive tax hikes
• Relief for middle-class taxpayers
• Measures to revive private sector confidence
• Bigger focus on strategic infrastructure instead of “thopa thopa” allocation
• EV customs rationalization
Interestingly, most of these themes appeared quite strongly in the final Budget.
Some major highlights:
1. Significant middle-class tax relief
The government doubled the personal income tax exemption threshold to NPR 10 lakhs and reduced the maximum personal income tax rate by 10 percentage points.
2. Strong push toward digital tax administration instead of rate hikes
The Budget introduced:
• Digital payment-based VAT incentives
• Automated VAT refund mechanism
• Invoice culture enforcement
• Tax dispute settlement measures
3. Infrastructure prioritization and ex*****on reform
The Budget repeatedly emphasized:
• Mission-mode project ex*****on
• Strategic corridors
• Transmission lines
• Integrated infrastructure development
• Sunset provisions for delayed projects
4. Private sector and investment confidence became a core theme
The budget announced:
• Startup and venture ecosystem support
• Easier FDI procedures
• Simplified repatriation provisions
• Business rehabilitation loans
• PPP expansion
• Investment process reforms
5. EV import rationalization actually happened
This was one prediction I strongly believed in.
The government has now restructured EV customs primarily around vehicle value segmentation rather than battery capacity alone.
For the first time in a while, this Budget feels like an attempt to structurally reposition the economy.
Of course, Nepal has never really lacked plans or policies.
Ex*****on has always been the real challenge.
No income tax up to NPR 12 lakhs in Nepal?" Don’t be surprised if this Budget moves somewhere in that direction.
Budget season is upon us, and this year’s Budget feels a bit different.
The economy needs confidence, private sector needs support, and government still needs revenue.
Here are my top 5 expectations from the FY 2083/84 Budget:
1. Better tax administration, not necessarily higher taxes
I don't think the government has much room for major tax rate hikes. Revenue pressure is definitely there, but I expect stronger tax administration rather than new taxes.
We may see:
Digital compliance and system integration
Stronger monitoring and data matching
Efforts to widen the tax base and improve enforcement
In short, collection may get tighter even if rates dont go up significantly.
2. Measures to revive private sector confidence
Business sentiment is still soft. Credit demand has not picked up the way many expected and investment appetite remains weak.
I expect some targeted measures for the private sector, possibly:
Sector specific tax relief
Incentives for investment and expansion
Support to struggling industries and SMEs
3. Bigger focus on mega projects, less thopa thopa budget allocation
This is something I strongly expect.
For years, budget has been spread too thin across too many projects with poor ex*****on.
I think this Budget may finally shift towards fewer but more meaningful allocations.
Likely focus areas:
Transmission lines
Hydropower ecosystem
Strategic highways
Urban infrastructure
Irrigation and logistics
If ex*****on improves, this alone could have a meaningful economic impact.
4. EV import duty rationalization
Nepal’s EV transition is no longer a future story, its already happening.
Considering our fuel import bill and hydropower potential, I expect some rationalization in EV taxes, especially for practical and mass market vehicles.
5. Tax relief for middle class taxpayers
This one may sound optimistic, but I feel meaningful restructuring of personal taxation feels overdue.
Whether through slab changes, rebate mechanisms, or deductions, I wont be surprised if the government tries to ease the burden on middle income earners.
Consumption is weak, cost of living has gone up, and skilled youth migration continues to be a serious concern.
Maybe not fully tax free up to NPR 12 lakhs, but some meaningful relief? Very possible.
If even 3 out of these 5 happen, I think this Budget could genuinely improve economic sentiment.
What is one bold prediction you have for this year’s Budget in Nepal?