18/06/2024
Why we are Long on Gold.
Fundamentals
During Monday's (June 17th) Asian session, spot gold oscillated downward, and it is now trading at $2322.
Last Friday, the U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to a 7-month low, which was another support for an early rate cut. In addition, gold rose slightly due to gold bears taking profits. The data last week were bullish for gold prices, but the confidence of gold bulls was weak, which limited the upside of gold prices. We need to keep an eye on the U.S. retail sales data and the situation in the Middle East this week. Talks failed to yield results several times, and this situation may continue.
Technical Analysis
Last week, gold rebounded after oscillating at low levels, which was a relatively strong trend. But the bullish momentum was not enough for the price to break above the oscillating pattern currently, and we will take time to judge if gold will form a new trend this week. If gold ascends further, it may touch $2342, $2365, and even $2388. In contrast, it may fall to $2295 or the previous support level of $2287. Technically, gold is more likely to rise. Just like last Friday, gold surged after oscillating at lows as the support level of $2287 was valid. It finally closed with a bull candle, confirming the bullish trend. At the same time, the Bollinger middle bands narrowed. As long as the gold price stabilizes above $2342, it can spike this week. We can target the high of $2388. In conclusion, gold is more likely to rise in the daily timeframe.
