Halawi Investment Trust s.a.l

25/02/2012

APR GOLD Resist: 1786, 1790+, 1806-180850 Trend: Up
Support : 1767+/-, 175180, 173810
Comment: The market is triggering an upturn, using the recent bull flag as a staging level to run trade to 1790-1805. A close over 1808 is bullish. Be careful for a near term peak / pullback from 1790+ that could lead into a few corrective retracement days, but holding dips just over 1750+ will reinforce the upturn. A
close under 173810* is needed to signal a reversing turn back to lower levels.

25/02/2012

EUR/USD up in European trading hours ...
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EUR/USD was trading at 1.3394, up 0.16% at time of writing.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3182, Monday’s low, and resistance at 1.3396, today’s high.

Meanwhile, the Euro was down against the British Pound and up against the Japanese Yen, with EUR/GBP shedding 0.05% to hit 0.8490 and EUR/JPY rising 0.91% to hit 107.95.

20/02/2012

crude oil analysis

Crude oil jumped today above the $105.00 level, the highest since May last year, while Brent is trading at an 8-month high above the $120.00, after OPEC's second largest producer, Iran, cut its oil exports to Britain and France during the weekend, ahead of EU’s embargo that starts in July 1.

Investors' appetite for risk increased today, driving the US dollar lower against the euro, opening the way for commodities to widen their gains, as optimism was sustained by hopes over the Greek deal, as the euro zone finance ministers who will meet later in Brussels might approve the 2nd bailout package.

Meanwhile geopolitical issues in Syria, Sudan and Nigeria are also sustaining oil prices to the upside on worried from a supply disruption. J.P. Morgan raised today its 2012 price forecasts for Brent by $6 to $118 a barrel, and 2013 forecasts to $125 a barrel from $121, mainly due to supply risks and economic recovery.

Demand on oil also widened after China cut its reserve requirements trying to boost the lending capacity in an attempt to sustain economic growth since Europe’s crisis weighed on exports, supporting the demand outlook for commodities from China.

Amid thin trading, as the US markets are closed for Presidents Day holiday, crude oil rose today to the highest of $105.78 from the lowest at $104.69, and as of this writing is trading around the $105.40. Meanwhile Brent rose today to the highest of $121.15 and as of this writing is trading around the $120.30.

20/02/2012

GBP/USD Bull-run resuming - MIG BANK
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BP/USD has extended the rebound from 1.5645 following bullish resolution to the hourly trend channel. • The pullback from the 1.5929 swing high was always seen as a correction of the larger advance from the 1.5235 January swing low, with the rebound from 1.5645 suggesting that the correction is complete. • While 1.5645 holds the risk is seen to the upside for an attack on 1.5916/29 (200-day moving average/swing high) ahead of psychological 1.6000 then overhead resistance at 1.6096/1.6167 as the next leg higher unfolds. • Loss of 1.5645 in the meantime would again risk a test of 1.5500/1.5582 ..

20/02/2012

Gold Analysis for 20-2-2012 ...
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Gold starts this week within critical levels, where the metal provides several attempts to breach the descending main resistance level through the long candlestick followed by several short candlesticks. But, at the same time, the breach of this level wasn’t confirmed yet. The metal trades outside the ascending channel, but still, the level of 23.6% Fibonacci correction shown above was able to stop the metal's negative momentum. The metal is trading now around the critical resistance of 1735.00, while the positive formation of the candlesticks contradicts the bearish resistance. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, awaiting further confirmations.

11/02/2012

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11/02/2012

Crude drops on Greek aid rejection
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Crude oil futures fell Friday in wake of a European Union decision to reject a bailout package for Greece as well as on gloomy data coming from the International Energy Agency.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD98.55 a barrel, down 1.30%.

The commodity hit an earlier session high of USD99.86 and a low of USD97.44.

Greek officials recently agreed to accept austerity measures needed to tap a EUR130 billion bailout package needed to steer the country away from default.

However, members from multilateral institutions arranging the bailout fund, including the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, found that Greece still failed to meet spending targets and rejected the country's appeal for aid.

Reports emerged that Greece’s version of an austerity plan would leave its debt around 136% of gross domestic product by 2020, which lenders deemed unacceptable.

The move sparked a selloff in oil markets.

A messy Greek default could bruise economic growth as a whole for Europe, and furthermore, the news sparked demand for dollars in a risk-off trading day, which sent investors ditching oil positions.

Adding to the gloom, the International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand outlook for a sixth consecutive month, further dampening spirits.

On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for March delivery were down 1.10% and trading at USD117.28 a barrel, up USD18.73 from its U.S. counterpart.

The gap in price between the two contracts is pushing very close toward the higher end of a range between a nearly USD20.00 all-time high and a historical spread of USD1.00.

11/02/2012

Forex - EUR/JPY falls on Greek aid setback

11/02/2012

federal budget balance rises more-than-expected
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The U.S. federal budget balance rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Department of the Treasury said that U.S. federal budget balance rose to a seasonally adjusted -27.4B, from -86.0B in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected U.S. federal budget balance to rise to -65.2B last month.

09/02/2012

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08/02/2012

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08/02/2012

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Competition start date: 3:00 PM, January 18, 2012
Competition end date: 12:00 AM, April 20, 2012

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Open positions @ 12:00 AM on April 20, 2012 will be considered closed at market price.