23/02/2026
Trading Week Ahead: Tariffs Back in Focus
Date: 23. 2. 2026
Inflation, tariffs and geopolitics collide in the final stretch of February. President Trump’s decision to lift new global tariffs to 15% after the Supreme Court setback has added fresh uncertainty to trade and growth expectations. At the same time, Consumer Confidence and US PPI will test the strength of demand and inflation pressures, while AI earnings from NVIDIA and key infrastructure players could determine whether the tech rally still has fuel.
👉 CB Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment is forecast to rise to 87.6 from 84.5. A stronger print may lift yields and support the dollar in the short term. A downside surprise could revive the rate cut narrative, boosting equities and gold.
👉 President Trump Speaks
Markets will focus on comments regarding China, Iran, tariffs and interest rates. His recent move to impose a 15% global tariff has already injected fresh trade uncertainty. Expect headline-driven volatility rather than a clean directional move.
👉 US PPI
Producer prices are forecast to ease to 0.3% from 0.5%. As an upstream inflation gauge, PPI often sets expectations for CPI and PCE. A hotter reading could lift yields and pressure equities, while softer data would reinforce the disinflation narrative and support rate cut bets.
*All times in the table are in GMT+1
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: Last week, EURUSD gained bearish momentum, closing below the first support and reacting only at the second, where buyers stepped back in. Today’s bullish open suggests potential for a move higher into resistance, with a possible sweep of last week’s high.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation of the bullish momentum toward resistance and a potential sweep of last week’s high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection leading to renewed downside, with price breaking below support and targeting swing lows. A close below support would confirm a bearish structure shift on the daily chart.
FVG Setup: No valid FVG was formed this week.
GBPJPY
Market Context: GBPJPY has seen little movement since last week, continuing to hold support while being capped by the lower edge of a gap (marked by the yellow line), which remains a respected resistance.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A breakout above the yellow resistance would confirm a long scenario. Until then, bullish continuation remains possible but cautious.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A failure to break resistance, followed by a move below support and a sweep of the marked swing low.
FVG Setup: No FVG formed this or last week, as the market remains in accumulation near support.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold held above the 20 EMA and surged back into resistance, sweeping a swing high. Today’s open gapped above last week’s close, signalling strong buyer aggression in line with elevated geopolitical tensions.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation higher toward all-time high, supported by momentum and macro factors.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection from resistance with a pullback to at least last week’s close.
FVG Setup: No FVG has formed yet, but a valid setup in line with the bullish scenario could offer an entry if the structure confirms.
