GLA

07/05/2024

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.22% to close at 3,148 on Tuesday, scaling its highest levels in eight months, with technology and consumer-related stocks leading the market higher. Mainland stocks also tracked gains on Wall Street as soft US jobs data revived hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon. Moreover, analysts are turning more optimistic about Chinese markets, saying the recent rally could further strengthen as macro fundamentals improve. Gains in the technology and consumer sectors were led by Foxconn Industrial (2.3%), 360 Security Technology (7.5%), Gigadevice Semiconductor (2.6%), Kweichow Moutai (0.6%) and Zhejiang Huace (4.9%). Meanwhile, auto stocks declined on weak quarter results, with losses from Seres Group (-4.9%) and ChongQing Changan (-2.1%).

07/05/2024

06/05/2024

汇市观潮2024年5月6日

货币：美元/日元

周五（5月3日），美元兑日元触及三周最低151.86，最终下跌0.48%，收盘于152.90。上周早些时候日本当局入市干预，使日元创下2022年11月以来的最大周线百分比涨幅。而周五当天美国的非农数据不理想，进一步助益日元的回升。周五来自美国的数据显示，美国4月新增就业岗位17.5万个，低于经济学家预期的24.3万个。4月薪资同比增长3.9%，低于预期的4.0%，3月涨幅为4.1%。失业率从3.8%上升至3.9%，但连续第27个月保持在4%以下。4月就业增长放缓幅度超过预期，且薪资同比涨幅降温，促使市场增加对美联储今年将降息两次的押注。这给到美元一定的压力。但是，来自美联储重要官员的声音则认为，数据仅仅说明劳动力市场有所松动，并不表明经济在大幅下滑。美联储理事鲍曼周五就表示，即使联储将指标利率维持在当前水平，通胀仍应该会继续下降，同时重申如果通胀进展趋缓或逆转，她愿意上调政策利率。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比表示，就业报告显示增长“稳健”，但增速放缓，这可能会让美联储官员对经济并未过热更有信心。因此，除非周五非农这种趋势继续下去，否则该报告本身不太可能影响美联储的政策改变。日线图上，美元/日元自160附近遭遇干预大幅回落之后，各项技术指标的超买状况正得以缓解，当前在152附近暂时受到支撑。若汇价进一步有效跌穿152，美元回落的幅度将进一步延展。相反若撑持在上述水平之上，恐怕美元/日元仍存在试高的可能性。

货币：澳元/美元

周五（5月3日），澳元兑美元上周五收高0.7%报0.6608，盘中最高曾触及三周以来的高点0.6647。周五美国就业数据逊于预期，美债收益率下降，提振澳元/美元上周形成的持续反弹走势。此外，有关澳洲央行可能在本周的政策会议上表现得更加鹰派的预期也提振了澳元。路透的一项调查显示，37位分析师中除一位外都预计澳洲央行5月利率会议上将维持利率不变。若针对利率澳联储提出鹰派的看法，预料将会刺激澳元/美元继续向上反弹。日线图上，澳元/美元汇价向布林带通道上轨线挺进，各类技术指标配合性地保持上扬态势，显示澳元逢低购入盘较为积极。若汇价能冲穿此前宽幅横盘震荡区间的上方阻力水平0.6660，澳元/美元有望向更高水平靠拢，量度空间目标有望向0.68进击。下方目前在布林带中轨线水平0.6520附近料能给与较强的支撑。

06/05/2024

The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.16% to close at 3,141 while the Shenzhen Component rallied 2% to 9,779 on Monday, with mainland stocks hitting fresh multi-month highs as investors returned from the long Labor Day holiday. Chinese stocks also tracked gains in global markets as softer-than-expected US jobs data revived hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon. Domestically, Caixin data showed that private sector growth in China hit an 11-month high in April as both manufacturing and services activities remained expansionary. Consumer and new energy stocks led the charge, with gains from Kweichow Moutai (3.2%), Wuliangye Yibin (3%), Contemporary Amperex (2.2%), BYD Company (3.6%) and Longi Green Energy (1.7%). Heavyweight financial, technology and healthcare stocks also advanced.

06/05/2024

资金继续抱团（5.6盘前）

周一复盘的时候提醒减仓了。详见：减仓了（4.29复盘）
周二的盘面情绪是有点差。中润被st了，加上一些龙头前排集合竞价不及预期，开盘市场活跃资金游资直接核了，指数也走得非常弱势。
然后几个核心权重的业绩也不太行，比如长安，跌停。这对机构方向的杀伤力也挺大的，减仓的时机还是比较好的。
之前人民币贬值，外资躲避汇率利差，流出。现在日本日元贬值，日本的热钱就流出了，去哪了呢，香港承接了一部分，这就是为什么港股比较强的原因，因为有增量资金。同时A股也受益了一下，但是子弹打掉了后续怎么走，还得看。
不过五一节假日港股是继续动了，人民币汇率也挺好，可以继续期待一下持续性，开盘应该会还不错。
方向的家电受以旧换新的影响，走得挺强的，这个之前提到过，详见：继续轮动（4.23复盘）

06/05/2024

Super Traders Forum. Johor Bahru

Johor Bahru

2024.5.11

The precious metals market has witnessed a significant surge in gold prices, with the commodity continually breaking new highs. Global markets are gripped with apprehension regarding the unfolding crisis in the Middle East. An industry expert has stated that the fallout from the Middle East crisis could precipitate oil prices exceeding $130 per barrel, which would catalyze a collapse in the global economy and international equity markets.
To mitigate the impending economic turbulence, central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, will be compelled to implement stringent measures to stabilize the situation. This intervention is expected to drive up the prices of both oil and gold. The expert has forecasted that by the end of 2024, gold prices could reach approximately $3,000 per ounce.
Amidst this complex global landscape and convoluted market dynamics, we are organizing a specialized seminar on risk management, technical analysis, and tool utilization on May 11th at the 8th floor training hall in Iskandar Medini. The event is expected to attract over 100 traders and industry professionals from Singapore, Johor Bahru, Penang, and Kuala Lumpur.
The seminar will feature a technical and risk management knowledge-sharing session by Mr. Kang Wei from XIXI Trading Sdn Bhd, as well as an insightful presentation on technical analysis and tool usage by JEEN HAO, the founder and chief trainer of OhMyGold, who possesses 13 years of financial investment experience. Additionally, a mystery guest speaker will be providing valuable practical knowledge.
We hope that the attendees will acquire a broader range of techniques, strategies, and tools to navigate the evolving market conditions. Furthermore, we aim to facilitate networking opportunities for the participants to connect with like-minded individuals and potential business partners, empowering them to become the pride of their own selves, companies, families, and clients.
You are cordially invited to attend the "Super Trader Forum - Johor Bahru " on May 11th, where the principles of people-centricity, transparency, responsibility, and mutual success will be upheld.

30/04/2024

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to above 3,120 on Tuesday, climbing to its highest levels in seven months as investors reacted to the latest purchasing managers index reports. Official data showed that Chinese manufacturing and services sector activities remained expansionary but slowed in April. Meanwhile, a private survey showed that factory growth hit a 14-month high this month. The latest figures provided little clues on whether Chinese authorities would ease policy further to bolster the economy. Externally, mainland stocks also tracked gains in global markets as driven by strong corporate earnings. Technology and consumer stocks led the advance, with gains from IEIT Systems (5.1%), Foxconn Industrial (1.2%), Zhongji Innolight (0.6%), Kweichow Moutai (1.4%) and Midea Group (4%).