01/08/2026
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaGpkie6LwHhs5c91701/173
Crude & Natural Gas —
Crude Oil
This is the first time I'm genuinely unsure about crude's trajectory. At the current price, it feels neither a buy nor a sell — the price is balanced. I'm looking to short deep ITM puts to capture handsome premium decay, given IV is high. The idea is simple: sell PE below 7000, and it can be structured as a spread too, depending on your size and risk appetite. On the higher side, I'm still not convinced, but one can sell calls above 9000 — again, as a spread with a stop-loss or with a rollover strategy if needed.
Natural Gas
On natural gas, 240 is a strong multi-month support. As the US transitions from summer to winter months, chances are high this support will hold through August and September. The option chain confirms the same — IV skewness data shows call premiums are higher compared to puts. The structure is clear: 240-250 is the support zone, 320-350 is the initial resistance. One can create spreads or directional bets near these support and resistance areas. My position: short on PE and CE in a 2:1 ratio for the current month.
Disclaimer: Views are personal and for educational purposes only, not investment or trading advice. As Mr. Junjunwala rightly said — we have every right to be wrong, and every right to change our view when data and market conditions change. Markets are dynamic; so am I.
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