Wright, Mumbai (2026)

12/05/2026

Reliance’s FY26 story is summed up by a weak energy quarter. It is also a way to check the pulse of economy, given how interconnected it is to different businesses and industries in India.

It is a reminder that even India’s largest integrated business is not immune to one external shock. The Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed crude, freight and insurance costs sharply higher, and O2C felt the pressure despite revenue growth.

What stood out was the portfolio cushion. Jio continued to compound through subscriber growth, 5G adoption, ARPU expansion and broadband scale.

Retail kept growing despite margin pressure from quick commerce. Media added another layer of consumer reach, with 550 million monthly active users and strong digital momentum.

Reliance is becoming more consumer-led, but not less energy-sensitive. Consumer businesses now contribute over 55% of EBITDA, yet O2C remains the largest revenue engine and the biggest swing factor.

FY26 showed both sides of the Reliance model diversification helps, but macro shocks still matter.

11/05/2026

How a Weak Monsoon & War Will Impact India In FY27?

India's 2026 southwest monsoon season is set to be the weakest in three years. Both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet have projected below-normal rainfall, driven by the return of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

At the same time, the ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted global fertilizer supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up input costs for Indian farmers at the worst possible time. Together, these two forces are creating a difficult environment for agricultural output, rural incomes, food inflation, monetary policy, and government finances.

The stakes are high. Agriculture accounts for roughly 15% of India's GDP and employs about 45% of the workforce. Around 60% of Indian farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for kharif (summer) season crops. A poor monsoon does not stay confined to farm fields.

It ripples outward into food prices, rural wages, consumer demand, tractor and two-wheeler sales, banking asset quality, and fiscal balances. The 2023 monsoon deficit demonstrated this clearly, and 2026 is now tracking toward a similar, potentially worse, outcome because of the added pressure of geopolitical supply disruptions.

07/05/2026

Why are India’s biggest grocery chains suddenly rethinking the way they operate?

Because two 19-year-old Stanford dropouts, Aadit Palicha and Kaivalya Vohra, built Zepto and proved that quick commerce is not just a marketing game. It is an operations game.

Zepto’s rise was not built only on discounts or flashy campaigns. The real moat was inside its dark stores: sharper SKU planning, faster picking, tighter supply chains, and better store-level economics. By FY24, Zepto’s revenue had more than doubled to ₹4,454 crore, while reports suggested that a large share of its dark stores had already turned EBITDA-positive.

Then came Zepto Pass. A simple subscription layer lowered delivery friction, increased order frequency, and improved retention. In quick commerce, that matters because the winner is not just the platform that delivers fastest, it is the one that can make speed repeatable, affordable, and operationally sustainable.

By 2025, Zepto was reportedly valued at around $7 billion. But the bigger story is not the valuation. It is the lesson: in consumer businesses, the front-end gets the attention, but the back-end often creates the advantage.

Zepto’s story is a reminder that great ex*****on can be just as disruptive as great innovation.

Do you think quick commerce is the future of Indian retail, or is this still a capital-heavy race waiting for consolidation?

05/05/2026

NSE vs BSE - India's Exchange Duopoly

NSE remains the scale leader in India’s exchange ecosystem. It is larger, more profitable, and still dominant in the cash market, with FY25 revenue of ₹19,177 crore, PAT of ₹12,188 crore, PAT margin of 62.9%, EBITDA margin of 76.5%, and net cash of ₹17,323 crore.

A 93% cash market share and 74% F&O premium share show how deeply entrenched NSE remains in India’s capital markets infrastructure.

BSE, however, is no longer just the older exchange with a smaller base. It is now the faster-moving challenger in derivatives. FY25 revenue stood at ₹3,236 crore and PAT at ₹1,322 crore, but 9M FY26 PAT had already reached ₹1,653 crore.

Its F&O notional share is now 44%, and premium turnover has grown 1,539% over two years. That is the key change: BSE is still much smaller than NSE, but its derivatives franchise has gained real traction.

The bigger story is India itself.

With 216 million demat accounts, equity pe*******on of just 15%, household equity share around 5%, and SIP flows of ₹29,500 crore per month, the market structure still has a long runway.

NSE brings scale and profitability; BSE brings listing access and faster recent growth. Together, they sit at the center of one of the most underpenetrated yet most active capital markets in the world.

04/05/2026

What does India's Energy Security look like?

India consumes 603 million tonnes of oil equivalent of primary energy annually, making it the world’s third-largest energy consumer.

- Industry accounts for 50% of this consumption, transport for 22%, and residential use for 12%.

- Coal dominates the energy mix at 55–60%, followed by oil at 30%, natural gas at 6–7%, and a rapidly growing renewables segment.

- The country’s total energy import dependence stands at 40%, with crude oil imports at 88–89%, natural gas at around 50%, and coal at 23%.

This structural reliance on imported fuels leaves the economy exposed to price shocks, currency volatility, and supply disruptions, particularly from the Middle East. Recent geopolitical developments, particularly the 2026 tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, have reinforced the urgency of this challenge.

Let's look at this in depth.

30/04/2026

Indian Money Flows: Where Capital Is Moving in April 2026?

Indian money flows show a market driven by three forces: foreign investor selling, domestic mutual fund resilience, and sector rotation toward cyclicals in equity recoveries.

April 2026 shows that Nifty’s current correction of about 14.8% is slightly deeper than the historical average correction of 13.7% during continuous three-month declines since 2008. And the Nifty has historically delivered average returns of 8.0% over three months and 17.4% over six months after such corrections.

This makes the flow picture mixed. Foreign portfolio investors are reducing Indian equity and debt exposure, while domestic investors continue to allocate through mutual funds and SIPs.

The equity market has recovered unevenly, with metal, realty, financials, and construction-linked sectors showing stronger leadership than defensives.

Let's take a closer look at what this means for the economy, the market and investors.

22/04/2026

India’s steel sector looks set for a strong 4QFY26, with domestic steel prices rising sharply on the back of lower imports, improving demand, and restocking activity.

Average rebar prices for the quarter stood at around ₹57,208/tonne, while HRC prices averaged ₹55,488/tonne, reflecting solid sequential and annual increases. At the same time, finished steel production and consumption both improved, pointing to healthier on-ground demand conditions.

What makes this especially interesting is the likely earnings impact. Higher realizations across both long and flat steel are expected to drive a meaningful sequential improvement in profitability for steel producers, with EBITDA/tonne improvement estimated in the ₹2,000–₹3,000 range.

Long steel players may be relatively better placed, given the sharper rise in rebar prices versus HRC. The bigger takeaway: pricing power has returned, and that could make this quarter a strong one for the ferrous space.

If current demand support and supply discipline continue, steel earnings may surprise positively.

07/04/2026

The Iran war has triggered a massive shock to global markets by disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz, wiping out nearly 20% of global energy supply almost overnight. Unlike past crises, this is not a gradual, sanction-led squeeze but a sudden supply shock, sending oil and LNG prices soaring while fueling inflation and slowing global growth. For India, the impact is especially severe due to its heavy reliance on oil imports, leading to a sharp FII sell-off, widening current account deficit, currency pressure, and deep cracks across sectors. Traditional portfolio strategies are also failing, with equities and bonds declining together as inflation takes center stage.

Yet, within this volatility lies a complex mix of risk and opportunity. While sectors like energy-intensive industries and exports face immediate headwinds, sharp sectoral divergence is creating tactical entry points for investors. The key variable remains the duration of the conflict, as short-term pain could give way to medium-term recovery. History offers a reassuring lens, across major geopolitical shocks, markets tend to rebound strongly within months. Both global indices and Indian markets have consistently demonstrated resilience, suggesting that while the current disruption feels intense, disciplined, long-term investing may once again prove to be the smartest strategy.

01/04/2026

Market corrections rarely happen in isolation. The current drawdown, driven by a mix of FII outflows, slowing earnings, elevated crude prices, and global uncertainty, resembles a liquidity-led correction with some structural elements. At ~14%, we are nearing the “mild correction” zone, which historically tends to bottom relatively quickly and recover within months. At the same time, market breadth is deeply oversold across timeframes, a condition that has often preceded mean-reversion rallies, though confirmation from price and volume still matters.

What stands out from 35 years of data is consistency: every major correction has been followed by positive 12-month returns, with an average of +62.3% from the bottom. The early phase of recovery tends to offer the most predictable returns, while longer holding periods deliver higher but more dispersed outcomes. In this context, the focus shifts from timing the exact bottom to understanding the type of correction, tracking key variables like liquidity and earnings, and positioning gradually as signals improve.

20/03/2026

What looks like a regional disruption rarely stays regional for long.

The Hormuz crisis is a reminder of how tightly interwoven global systems really are. Fertilizers, energy, shipping, policy, everything is connected. When supply chains are disrupted at the source rather than along the route, the shock does not just travel, it compounds. Prices spike, buffers thin out, and what begins as a localized issue quickly turns into a multi-layered global strain.

What makes this moment particularly fragile is the hidden exposure. Countries and industries that may not seem directly dependent are still pulled in through second-order effects. Europe’s reliance on intermediaries, China’s export controls, and rising gas prices all feed into a system that is far more sensitive than it appears on the surface.

The real takeaway is not just about this crisis. It is about how we think about risk. It is no longer enough to track direct dependencies or headline events. The real signals lie in second-order linkages, input costs, and the strength, or absence, of buffers within the system.

Because in today’s world, shocks do not move linearly. They cascade.

15/03/2026

Copper might look like it’s in steady supply if you only glance at production numbers. But dig a little deeper and the picture changes. Global mining output is growing, yet not nearly fast enough to keep up with the demand being built downstream. Most mines today are already operating at around 80–81% capacity utilisation, which means there isn’t a huge amount of spare room to suddenly ramp up production.

At the same time, the world, especially Asia, has been adding smelting capacity much faster than mining capacity. And that creates a bottleneck in the middle of the supply chain. Copper doesn’t come out of the ground as refined metal; it first exists as concentrate that needs to be processed and refined. When concentrate supply lags but smelting capacity keeps expanding, the squeeze shows up right in the middle of the chain. The result is a classic supply-chain pinch where everyone downstream is ready to process more copper, but the raw material simply isn’t arriving fast enough.

Wright

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