Tamil nifty & bank nifty analysis

Tamil nifty & bank nifty analysis Hello! This is MANICKAM TRADERS.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 16th.Market Overview:The global market is...
16/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 16th.

Market Overview:

The global market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment, while our local market is following a similar trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-down opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start of -70 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, Nifty saw a minor correction, but Bank Nifty maintained a moderately bullish sentiment. Structurally, Nifty is in a range-bound pattern, while Bank Nifty shows a slightly bullish structure. However, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start today, if this happens, both indices may move in a range-bound structure. Let's explain this further in the charts.

Nifty Current View:

If the market starts with a gap-down, then the immediate support level (24983) will act as strong support. If the market finds support there, it could take a minimum pullback of 38% to 61% of the minor swing, likely continuing the same range-bound movement. This is the basic structure.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks this level solidly or consolidates at that level, the correction is likely to continue towards 24882.

Bank Nifty Current View:

Similar to Nifty, if Bank Nifty starts with a gap-down, it may consolidate between the previous high and the downside minor demand zone (51661). This is the basic structure.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks this level solidly or consolidates around the minor demand zone (51661), then the correction is likely to continue towards the 38% Fibonacci level.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 14th.Market Overview:There have been no s...
14/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 14th.

Market Overview:

There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is showing a bullish sentiment, while our local market has a moderately bearish trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-up opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive +10 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, Nifty closed with consolidation, while Bank Nifty experienced a minor correction. However, structurally, both are in a range-bound phase. Trading in a range market can be difficult as we may not see clear movement, direction, or option premium. However, if you’re looking to trade, we can consider a breakout entry, which I'll explain in the charts.

Nifty:

> If the market breaks either above 25,040 or below 24,897, we can enter a breakout trade. Target levels are 25,167 on the upside and 24,810 on the downside.

> It is important to note that after a breakout, if the market experiences gradual movements or rejects the immediate support or resistance level, it is likely to close at the same level as it opened today.

> On the other hand, if the market consolidates around the immediate support or resistance level after the breakout, the direction is likely to continue.

Bank Nifty:

Bank Nifty is also in a range-bound market. However, the current view suggests that if the market opens with a gap-up or breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect a move towards 51,520. after that, If it rejects at that level, the range-bound market will likely continue. On the other hand, if it consolidates or breaks through, we can expect a rally continuation.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market opens negatively, we may see a gradual move towards 50,806. If that happens, we can expect a solid bounce back if the market rejects that level. On the other hand, if the decline forms a solid structure and consolidates around the MDZ, the correction is likely to continue.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 11th.Market Overview:There have been no s...
11/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 11th.

Market Overview:

There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is displaying a bullish sentiment, while our local market is showing a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to slightly gap-down opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative -20 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, Nifty consolidated while Bank Nifty saw a solid upward move; however, it closed near the previous day’s high. Structurally, both indices differ, but sentiment suggests that major movements are slowing down. so If the market opens neutral, it may consolidate between nearby support and resistance levels. After that, if a breakout occurs, we can follow the direction—whether to the upside or downside. This is our primary direction for today. Let’s take a closer look at the charts.

Nifty Current View:

If the market starts neutral or negative, it may find support around 24,924 to 24,900. If support is found, Nifty could consolidate between 24,924 and 25,001 on the upside. After this, if the range breaks, we can follow the direction, whether it’s to the upside or downside. This is our first variation.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level (24,924), the correction may continue, reaching at least 78% to the downside.

Bank Nifty Current View:

The sentiment is similar to Nifty. If the market starts neutral or negative, it may consolidate between minor 38% and the upside level of 51,812. After this, if a breakout occurs, we can follow the direction, whether to the upside or downside. This is our first variation.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level (minor 38%), the correction may continue towards 51,065 to 50,806 on the downside.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th.Market Overview:The global market is...
10/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th.

Market Overview:

The global market is displaying bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A gap-up opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating an increase of approximately +110 points as of 8 AM.

In the last session, we saw a lot of movement due to the RBI policy. The market is still somewhat weak overall, but the Gift Nifty is showing a positive start with around +100 points gap-up. This is because of global factors, like the Dow Jones going up strongly after the FOMC minutes. Gift Nifty also reacted to this.

What should we do with this sentiment? We should wait for a breakout in a certain range. If the market breaks this range, we can follow that direction because of the mixed local and global factors. I'll explain this more clearly in the charts.

Nifty and Bank Nifty have similar chart patterns.

Nifty Current View:

The current view suggests that if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 25,173, then the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. However, one additional confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market may consolidate around the 25,173 level. After consolidation, if this level is broken, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 25,272 to 78%.

Bank Nifty Current View:

Similar to Nifty, if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 51,535, the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. Again, confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle. This is our first variation.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market could reach the 51,535 level. After that, if the market consolidates or breaks this level, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 51,812 to 51,895. This forms our alternate variation.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 4th.Market Overview:The global market is ...
04/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 4th.

Market Overview:
The global market is still maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local market indicates a bearish trend. A gap-down opening is expected today, with SGX Nifty showing a negative move of around -90 points at 8 AM.

In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty continued their corrections. So, what about today? GIFT Nifty is indicating a negative start, suggesting further continuation of the downtrend. However, if you look at the chart, there's an RSI divergence, which could signal a minor reversal. This means we can't hold positions without caution today. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Today, both Nifty and Bank Nifty share the same structural sentiment.

Current View:

The current view suggests that if the market finds support around the immediate support level, we can expect a bounce back of around 23% to 38% in the minor swing. This is our first scenario. For additional confirmation, you can refer to the 20 EMA

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests a breakout trade. If the market breaks or consolidates around the support level, we can take a breakout entry and set the target at the next support level. Since I'm uncertain about the trend continuation, I’ve set the target conservatively at the next support level.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 3rd.Market Overview:The global market exh...
03/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 3rd.

Market Overview:

The global market exhibits a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local market leans bearish. A long gap-down opening is expected today, with the SGX Nifty indicating a negative move of around -300 points at 8 AM

Sentiment Analysis:
My Opinion:

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have a solid bearish structure, so we can consider a few factors to assess if this correction will continue for the long term.

> Local Market Factors: Our market has been falling, partly due to SEBI’s new F&O rules. However, this alone may not be sufficient to sustain a long-term correction.

> Geopolitical Situation: There’s an ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, but the U.S. market hasn’t reacted to this yet. If the U.S. market starts to react, the correction could become more aggressive. On the other hand, if there’s no reaction, our market may struggle to sustain the correction.

Now, let’s take a look at the charts. both nifty and banknifty has the same chart sentiments.

Current View: If the market opens with a gap-down, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are expected to continue in a bearish structure, with some minor consolidation. Even if there’s a pullback, this type of correction typically won’t break the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing. This is our first scenario.

Alternate View: If the market initially rejects around the immediate support level and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing, it could shift into a range-bound market. In this case, targets are expected around the 78% Fibonacci level in the minor swing.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 1st.Market Overview:The global market is ...
01/10/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 1st.

Market Overview:

The global market is maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment, but our local market is leaning bearish. Today, the market may open neutral to slightly gap-down, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative 5-point move at 8 AM.

On the previous day, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced a sharp decline. Structurally, we can expect further correction. However, the global market saw a solid pullback in the previous session, indicating a minor bounce-back initially. however, If the market sustains a bearish sentiment with solid red candles, the correction is likely to continue. Let's look at the charts for more details.

Nifty Current View:

This current view suggests that if the market opens with a gap-up or finds support around the immediate support level, it could pull back up to 23% to 38%. Structurally, it might not sustain beyond that, so it may undergo some consolidation between the current low and the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing. . Afterward, we can follow the direction—whether it breaks the previous low or the 38% Fibonacci level. This is our first variation

Alternate View:

The alternate view indicates that if the initial market declines, then 25,695 will act as a strong support level. If it consolidates or breaks that level, the correction is likely to continue, meaning we can expect a correction only if it solidly breaks 25,695. On the other hand, if it rejects solidly, we can follow the direction of the current view. This is the alternate view.

Bank Nifty Current View:

The current view is similar to the Nifty sentiment; if the market opens with a gap-up or takes support around the immediate support level, it could retrace a maximum of 23% to 38%. Structurally, it won't sustain there, so it may undergo some consolidation between the current low and the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing. . Afterward, we can follow the direction—whether it breaks the previous low or the 38% Fibonacci level. This is our first variation

Alternate View:

The alternate view states that if the initial market declines and sustains, we can expect a minimum correction to the levels of 52,722 to 52,629, which are major support levels. If it rejects at this level, we can expect a minor swing bounce-back of 23% to 38%. On the other hand, if it breaks or consolidates below these levels, the correction will likely continue.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 30th.Market Overview:The global market ...
30/09/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 30th.

Market Overview:

The global market has a moderately bullish sentiment, and our local market reflects the same moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a gap-down due to the SGX Nifty indicating a negative 80 points.

In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed negatively, and the SGX Nifty also suggests that this trend may continue. Even though the overall structure indicates a negative trend, there are no key points suggesting a substantial continuation of this trend, which is why I have categorized it as a range-bound market. However, if the gap-down solidly breaks the immediate support level, then a correction is likely to continue. Let's analyze this further through the charts.

Nifty Current View:

The current view suggests that if the market finds support around the immediate support level (26073), we can expect a range-bound market between the previous high and the upcoming low. This is our first variation. This sentiment represents a slightly bullish bias, meaning that after this consolidation, if it breaks the previous high, the rally is likely to continue.

Alternate View:

The alternate view indicates that if the gap-down sustains and breaks the immediate support level, then the correction is likely to continue down to the minimum Fibonacci level of 23%.

Bank Nifty Current View:

Bank Nifty reflects the same sentiment as Nifty. If the market finds support around the immediate support level (23%), we can expect a minimum bounce back of 38% to 61%. It looks like a range-bound market. If this occurs, the next movements will be determined by whether it breaks the previous high or the downside Fibonacci level of 23%. This is our first variation.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the gap-down sustains and breaks the immediate support level, then the correction is likely to continue down to the minimum level of Fibonacci 53389 to the 38% Fibonacci level.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 26th.Market Overview:There have been no...
26/09/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 26th.

Market Overview:

There have been no significant changes in the global and local markets; both maintain a bullish bias. Today, the market is expected to open neutral to slightly positive, with SGX Nifty indicating a rise of around +60 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty continued consolidating. However, it seems a breakout may occur this session, as GIFT Nifty is suggesting a gap-up opening. If this gap-up sustains, we can expect the rally to continue. We had previously discussed that this could be a sub-wave 5th. So, if the breakout has a solid structure, the trend is likely to continue. Conversely, if the movement is gradual, the rise may be limited. We'll explain this further in the charts.

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty reflect the same sentiment.

Nifty Current View:

The current view suggests that if the first move consolidates around the supply zone (MSZ), Nifty could reach a maximum of 26,146. Conversely, if the first move breaks the supply zone with solid momentum, the rally may continue, with some consolidation around 26,220. This is our first scenario.

Alternate View:

The alternate view suggests that if the market declines or faces rejection near the supply zone, the range may hold. However, the precise move is if the rejection breaks the 38% Fibonacci level of the minor swing, it could extend to a minimum of 78%, reaching 25,833.

Bank Nifty Current View:

Bank Nifty mirrors Nifty's sentiment. If the first move consolidates around the supply zone (MSZ), it could reach a maximum of 54,498. Conversely If it breaks the supply zone with strength, the rally may continue with some consolidation around 54,655. This is our first scenario.

Alternate View:

The alternate view for Bank Nifty suggests that if the market declines or faces rejection near the supply zone, the range may persist. However, the precise move is if the rejection breaks the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing, it could extend to a minimum of 78%, reaching 53,699.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 25th.Market Overview:There have been no...
25/09/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 25th.

Market Overview:

There have been no significant changes in the global and local markets; both have maintained a bullish bias. Today, the market is expected to open neutrally to slightly negatively, with SGX Nifty suggesting a negative move of around -20 points as of 8 AM.

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty consolidated yesterday, and structurally, this could continue today as well. However, if the market sustains the gap-down and solidly breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, the correction is likely to continue. On the other hand, if it does not break that level, the range will likely persist. I believe there is no need to explain it further, as we have seen the same sentiment over the past two days. However, if you need more clarification, please take a glance at the information below.

Nifty Current View:

If the market declines, it could experience a correction of 23% to 38% on the downside. After that, if it finds support in that range, it will likely return to where it closed yesterday. Conversely, if it solidly breaks the 38% level, the correction may continue with a minimum decline of 50% to 78% in the minor swing. This is our first variation.

Alternate Variation:

An alternate view suggests a range-bound market. If the market initially takes a solid pullback, the diagonal trend is likely to continue.

Bank Nifty:

The sentiment for Bank Nifty appears similar to that of Nifty. If the market declines, it could see a correction of 23% to 38% on the downside. After finding support in that range, it could consolidate between the previous high and the 38% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, if it solidly breaks the 38% level, the correction may continue with a minimum decline of 50% to 78% in the minor swing.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 24th.Market Overview:There have been no...
24/09/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 24th.

Market Overview:

There have been no significant changes in the global and local markets; both have maintained a bullish bias. Today, the market is expected to open with a neutral to slightly positive gap, with SGX Nifty suggesting a positive move of around +40 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed positively, but there was no significant movement. Today, we expect to continue this trend, as there are no major trigger points for the next movement. However, we can check the charts for further insights.

Sentiments are similar for Nifty and Bank Nifty charts, and we will follow the sentiment shared in the previous session.

Current View:

Structurally, a diagonal pattern is progressing. If the market rejects around the immediate resistance, or if the market initially declines, we can expect a minimum correction of 23% to 38%. If it breaks below 38%, the trend could shift into a correction phase. Conversely, if it does not break 38%, the diagonal pattern could extend further. This is our first variation.

Alternate Variation:

The alternate variation suggests that if the market consolidates around the immediate resistance, it will be a sign of bullish continuation. We can expect to see the next resistance level if it breaks through the current resistance.

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 20th.Market Overview:Global markets are...
20/09/2024

Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 20th.

Market Overview:
Global markets are showing a bullish trend, as indicated by the Dow Jones, while our local market has a moderately bullish outlook. Today, the market is expected to open neutral to slightly gap-up, with SGX Nifty suggesting a positive move of around +30 points as of 8 AM.

In the previous session, both Nifty and Banknifty experienced a solid breakout, but it didn’t sustain. Structurally, this indicates a diagonal pattern, meaning the trend is bullish, but momentum may be limited. This is one variation. On the other hand, if the market declines, it could turn into a correction. Let's look at the charts for more insight.

Structurally, both Nifty and Banknifty share the same sentiment.

Nifty:
Current view:

The current view suggests that if the market declines after some initial pullback, we can expect a correctional target at the 38% Fibonacci level on the downside. Structurally, it may not sustain there. However, if a solid pullback occurs, the market could form a range-bound structure between the previous high and the current low. This is our first variation.

Alternate view:

Alternatively, if the gap-up sustains, we could expect the market to reach the level of 25,561. If it consolidates or breaks this level, we might see a further move up to 25,643. On the other hand, if there is a sharp rejection at this level, it may retest the previous bottom.

Banknifty:
Current view:

The current view is similar to Nifty. If the market declines after an initial pullback, we can expect a correctional target at the 50% Fibonacci level on the downside. Structurally, it might not sustain there. However, a proper trend reversal (for a correction) will occur only if it breaks the 50% level. This is our first variation.

Alternate view:

The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, Banknifty could reach the supply zone on the upside (53,419 to 53,491). This is a crucial level in the current structure. Once the market reaches this zone, there is a high probability of rejection, which means we could expect a 61% to 78% correction in the minor swing. Structurally, this indicates a diagonal pattern. I’ll explain this with an example chart in this post. However, a rally could be expected only if the supply zone is broken effectively.

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