News-Stock-Signals

24/12/2022

I hope you understood the Idea.🤘

23/12/2022

Read these things if you find them interesting, but don't rely on them – or those who produce them – to guide your investments.

Accept that you have to invest without knowing what will happen to your money in the short term. So make sure, first, that you put enough money away in a safe place, like a bank account or money market fund, to pay the bills in the coming months.

But because the stock market tends to rise over long periods, and because bonds now generate reasonable income (as I explained last week), it's wise to invest for a decade or more in low-cost index funds that track the entire stock and bond markets.

Do not base your investments on specific predictions of where the stock market is headed in the short term, because no one knows. Betting on these predictions is gambling, not investing.
Consider how bad Wall Street's forecasts were.

In 2020, we find that the median Wall Street forecast since 2000 has missed its target by an average of 12.9 percentage points per year. That error over two decades was staggering: more than double the actual average annual performance of the stock market!

Imagine an equally bad weather forecast. A weatherman says the high temperature the next day will be 25 degrees Fahrenheit and it will snow, so you dress for a winter storm. In fact, the temperature turns out to be 60 degrees and the sky is clear. This is the level of accuracy for Wall Street strategies through 2020.

They continued their erratic ways the following year, issuing an average forecast of 3,800 for the S&P 500's closing level in 2021. But the index ended the year at 4,766.18, an error of about 25 percent. In a word, the forecast was dire.

Predictions for 2022 seem inaccurate, as usual, although we won't know for sure until later this month. A year ago, the consensus on Wall Street was that the S&P 500 would reach 4,825 at the end of 2022, a modest increase from 2021. But right now, the index is hovering around 4,000. In other words, a year ago, strategists were saying 2022 would be good for stocks. It was not.

The future
After forecasts that were too low for 2021 and too high for 2022, Wall Street strategists are holding steady for 2023. The consensus is that the S&P 500 will end the year at 4,009, roughly around where it has been trading for the past few days.

That could be right. Who knows? But if it turns out to be correct, it will be an accident, not the result of strange knowledge about 2023.

This inability to forecast the future goes far beyond Wall Street. Pandemics are part of human history and we know there will be more. But no one was able to anticipate the specific coronavirus pandemic that began in 2020, or the 6.6 million deaths, 646.2 million cases, and the complex economic and financial damage it continues to cause. So what do you think it is worth trusting in the forecasts of speculators on Wall Street? May the new year, which is approaching extremely quickly, bring you maximum joy and health.

25/12/2021

5 bold predictions for 2022
With those in mind, here are some new predictions for 2022 that I think have a solid chance of happening.

1. Value stocks will finally have their moment
Over the past decade, growth stocks as a group have nearly doubled the total return of value stocks. And growth has generally outperformed in any individual one-year period in that timeframe. But I feel that 2022 will see that trend reverse.

There are a few reasons I think so. As I'll discuss later, interest rates are likely to rise, and this can be a negative catalyst for growth stocks. Most so-called "reopening stocks" fall into the value category, and as the pandemic (hopefully) winds down, they could be big winners. And last but not least, growth valuations have just run a little too hot in recent years, and I feel they're due for a pullback, especially in an inflationary environment.

2. The Fed will raise rates quickly, but inflation will remain
The most recent projections by policy makers suggest that there will be either no or one interest rate hike in 2022, but I'll make the bold prediction that the Fed will hike rates at least twice. Inflation isn't looking as transitory as previously thought and could prove difficult to control as we head into 2022. The median inflation expectation in 2022 by FOMC members is 2.2%, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it run at 3% or higher.

3. The housing market will have another double-digit gain in 2022
In the third quarter of 2021, home prices in the U.S. posted their largest gain ever, rising by 18.5% year over year. And some areas of the country saw even steeper gains. While many experts think the rise in home prices will cool off, I'm not so sure. In fact, I think we'll see another year of double-digit gains in 2022.

There are simply too many catalysts that could keep pushing prices higher. For one thing, the conforming mortgage limit is set to increase by about $100,000 next year, which will make it easier for buyers to finance homes in a rising market. Supply and labor constraints continue to limit home builders' ability to keep up with demand. And mortgage rates remain near record lows and don't show many signs of reversing course.

4. S**Cs will make a comeback
I've saved the two boldest predictions for last. First, I think we'll see a resurgence in special purpose acquisition company (S**C) activity in 2022. To be clear, I don't think we'll see dozens of new blank-check companies hitting the market weekly, like we did in early 2021, but I don't believe for a second that this IPO alternative is dead. There are still 549 active S**Cs with about $150 billion in capital looking for deals, and plenty of innovative growth companies looking to go public.

5. Cryptocurrencies will have a rough year
Some would call this my boldest prediction. After a surge in cryptocurrency interest in 2020 and 2021, many digital assets are at or near all-time highs. Since the beginning of 2020, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) are up by 690% and 3,450%, respectively. I predict that investor and institutional interest in cryptocurrencies will take a step backwards in 2022, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum will decline by 20% or more.

These are meant to be bold predictions
As a final thought, it's worth emphasizing that these are meant to be bold predictions, so I completely acknowledge that the probability that I'll be right with all five of them is quite low. Even so, all are completely plausible, and only time will tell.

04/08/2021

Do you want to make money on the stock market? Do not trade outside of trading hours, because if you are trading outside of trading hours you will be "Fu**ed" and this proves that you are not a real trader, and you are just a big idiot. So are you a real trader? or simply an Idiot who loses money on the stock market.🤘

29/06/2021

It is mourning in the world of billionaires! Mircea Popescu, a Romanian entrepreneur and veteran of cryptocurrency investments, died in Costa Rica after drowning.

According to the local site crhoy.com, Mircea Popescu, 41 years old, wrongly identified as a "Pole", drowned on June 23 in the province of Puntarenas. Tuur Demeester, another old cryptocurrency investor and author of the "Bitcoin Reformation" study, also announced that Mircea Popescu seems to have drowned in Costa Rica.

John Carvalho, a producer of a well-known podcast on Bitcoin, called Mircea Popescu "the father of Bitcoin maximalism" and says that if the information is really real, then a huge amount of Bitcoin will disappear forever or flood the market, write u .today.
Emotional messages after the announcement of Mircea Popescu's death have already appeared on various blogs, people who knew him writing how he influenced their lives (see here or here).
Entrepreneur Mircea Popescu claimed that he is the only man on the planet who has ever owned a million Bitcoin.
Involved in numerous international businesses
Mircea Popescu grew up in Cluj-Napoca and graduated from "Avram Iancu" University. He has lived in several countries, such as the United States, Mexico, Costa Rica and Egypt, writes Trusted Nodes.
In 2007, he founded Polimedia, a Romanian business resource planning firm.

Towards the end of 2008 he created the Trilema blog, where he also started writing about Bitcoin in early 2021, then switched to English posts later that year.

In July 2013, he sold the company SatoshiDice for more than 125,000 Bitcoin.

In 2014, he sponsored the OpenBSD operating system, a project that was close to closing due to lack of funding, and Wired wrote about Mircea Popescu as "the Bitcoin baron of Romania."

26/04/2021

Shares on Wall Street were mostly lower in early premarket trading on Monday as investors geared up for a big week of corporate earnings.

Tesla was set to report its results after the closing bell, while tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet and Microsoft were all scheduled to release their quarterly earnings later this week. Additionally, traders were awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones was flat at 4:50 am ET. Meanwhile, the S&P500 declined 0.14%, while the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.36%. The euro traded 0.02% lower compared to the dollar to go for 1.20965.

18/04/2021

15/08/2020

If the information below is of interest to receive every other week , email us back indicating so and we'll add you . He is someone I love to listen to so thought you might as well.

ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL FAIL TO FULLY RECOVER TILL 2022

Investors are awakening to the fact that the V-shaped recovery was a fantasy!

The markets have priced in the "V" shaped recovery as evidenced by a "V" shaped market bounce since the March lows to within points of prior market highs. Markets fully anticipate better days ahead and although the timing is uncertain, the stock market is expressing confidence the pandemic will end with a vaccine and better interim treatments. Frankly, it all rings of a major "Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News" set-up!

Irrelevant of this prognostication, the reality is we are in fact in the early stages of a deepening global economic recession. Soon this reality will set in and market sentiment will slide from confidence to angst in a 'New York' minute!.

1- THE FACTS: THE "V" SHAPED ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS NOT OCCURRING!

It's tempting to take the recent rebound in business confidence and activity measures as a sign that the global economy is well on track to make up for its coronavirus-induced losses -- except it's misleading evidence. The speed of channeling policy stimuli into the economy, as well as pandemic relapse risk once lock-downs end will significantly hamper the economic recovery. We have shown many charts regarding why we don't expect a "V"

2- PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE EARLY 1930'S ECONOMIC PATTERN AHEAD

The Trump administration and Congress will need to pass trillions of dollars more in direct payments to tens of millions of broke Americans, or face a crash in consumption. The virus-induced recession has financially ruined the bottom 90% of households while additional economic shutdowns due to rising virus cases and deaths will exacerbate the second round of layoffs.

Presently Wall Street is ignoring the deep economic scarring from the virus. Permanent job loss now stands at nearly 3 million, up from 1.6 million people in February.

"Wall Street has misread the shape of the economic recovery, (Gary Shilling) warns a 1930s-style decline in the stock market could be ahead."

3- THE FRAGILE & FRACTURED GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BEGUN UNRAVELING!

"Fragile systems break. This is why the unraveling is accelerating". Additionally, he feels "Financial catalysts tend to result in sudden, cataclysmic collapses in liquidity, solvency and sentiment....This is particularly problematic when the top 20% of the workforce that accounts for 50% of all consumer spending and 80% of the citizenry's political voice is in distress".

HIGHER DEBT = LOWER GROWTH (This Time IS Different - Rogoff & )

Large parts of global stock markets are massively under-performing... because they are under-performing. Its going to get worse as they deal with the costs of delayed deliveries, foregone cap-ex, supply chain breakdown, unpaid rents and crashing returns. Many companies are struggling with increased debt - it's kept them afloat, but leaves them with a massive leverage burden, which will seriously impact their ability to grow, innovate and introduce new products. Even before the crisis began we were looking at 20% of US companies as effectively "zombies".


Right across commercial enterprise companies have been forced to take on debt to weather the pandemic. This is happening at a time when a demand-shock - from massively increased unemployment - looks nailed on. The result will hamper growth for these companies and across economies, potentially for the next decade. It's a recipe for stagnation. News- Stock Signals We wish you a weekend full of joy with your loved ones.

15/08/2020

Gambling is not a financial problem, but an emotional problem that has financial consequences. In other words, gambling is traced backed to an emotional imbalance – your hormones, to be exact.

Let’s take a closer look. Gambling activates the brain’s reward system, just like co***ne does. The brain’s reward system is linked to the pleasure sections of the brain. The pleasure section of the brain releases a pleasure hormone into the body, called dopamine, which causes the trader to feel enjoyment and pleasure while he is making trades and taking risks. This causes the trader to trade more and more because he wants to feel more and more pleasure.

For example, when a trader makes a good profit, his emotions rocket sky high, causing him to feel pleasure; but extreme trading pleasure can lead to overtrading, thus mistakes. Allow me to explain. Gambling stimulates the brain’s reward system, much like co***ne, leading to addiction, thereby motivating the trader to seek more and more gambling behaviors, like overtrading. This causes the trader to illogically try to reach that same buzz, again and again, leading to bigger and riskier bets.

Now pay attention because this is where it gets interesting. When a trader often gambles, this continuous release of extreme dopamine can cause a trader to develop a ‘dopamine tolerance.’ This is when a trader’s brain has become so familiar to dopamine that it no longer produces the same buzz or that same happy feeling as it did initially.
But because by this point the trader’s brain is so conditioned with a buzz, it now craves more and more dopamine, and this causes the trader to gamble more and more.

In these cases, a trader will take more risks in the hope of stimulating the buzz that he felt initially. But he will ‘not’ get that same buzz because he has developed dopamine tolerance. And so, the trader will continue to crave gambling because when dopamine is reduced, it can lead the trader down the path to depression. Depression may then trigger fear, which may lead to anxiety. And this explains why gambling becomes an addiction in trading.

So, what’s the solution? The solution is to gain emotional stability so that you may balance your hormones. It’s all about controlling your emotions. For example, the brain cannot feel two emotions at the same time – the brain cannot feel happy and sad at the same time, or calm and stressed simultaneously, or high and low at the same time. This is because different emotions turn different parts of the brain on and off.

For example, when a trader is happy, he activates the part of the brain responsible for happiness, slowing down the part of the brain responsible for sadness. When a trader is calm, he activates the part of the brain responsible for calmness, slowing down the part of the brain responsible for fear. When relaxation is turned on, stress is turned off. When depression is turned on, joy is turned off, and on and on it goes.

Now let’s translate that to trading. When a trader gambles and feels pleasure, he activates the part of the brain responsible for pleasure, slowing down the part of the brain responsible for logical decision-making. In other words, when the mind is in pleasure mode, it is challenging for a trader to make sensible decisions about his trades. These two different brain parts cancel out one another, not 100 percent, but roughly 2/3.

In other words, it is extremely difficult to feel pleasure and make logical decisions at the same time. In most cases, it’s either one or the other. Therefore, when it comes to trading, you must maintain emotional stability so that your emotions do not unwillingly turn various parts of your brain on and off; dragging you through the market in different directions like a lost puppy. Strictly speaking, you must be the one who is in control. You must decide when you will operate via the pleasure part of the brain and when via the logical thinking part of the brain. And so, your first step to overcome gambling in trading is to master your emotions. If assistance is required to do so, stay tuned because my trading psychology course and one-on-one sessions are on the horizon.

Another important aspect of gambling that I would like to share with you is learning to tilt the odds in your favour. What do I mean by tilt the odds in your favour? Well, when a trader gambles, he has a negative expected return, but when he trades statistically and skillfully, he can have a positive expected return, over the long run. Therefore, to avoid gambling, a trader must make trades that have a positive expected value.

Allow me to explain using a Blackjack example. The object of the casino game, Blackjack is to get a hand with a value as close to 21 as possible without going over 21. A hand that goes over 21 is a bust, whether you are a player or a dealer. And so, to win the hand you are dealt, your total must be higher than that of the dealer, but not greater than 21. Now, in Blackjack, the number cards have a value equal to their number, and all the picture cards (Jacks, Queens, and Kings) are worth 10. Aces, however, can be worth either 11 or 1, whichever is more beneficial to the person holding the hand. So, for example, a hand with an Ace and an Eight is worth 19 (in this case, the Ace is valued at 11). A hand with an Ace, an Eight, and a Four is worth 13 (in this case, the Ace is valued at 1 because if it were valued at 11, the hand would bust, and the dealer would win.
However, in Blackjack, the odds favor the house. That means that a casino that deals thousands of hands per day won’t win all the time, but they will over the long run. For this reason, Blackjack is a gamble because the expected value of playing the game is negative. However, there are ways to play Blackjack without gambling. For example, if the dealer has a six and a 4 (=10) and you the player has a six and a five (=11), then it is not a gamble to doubling your bet and only take one more card. This is because, the odds of you winning are in your favor because the six and 4 that the dealer holds are a terrible card, and the 6+5 that you hold has a good chance of turning in to 21 if you draw a card that has a value of 10, considering there are many cards of that value left in the deck.

In other words, your hand has a positive expected value. So, within a gambling game like Blackjack there are times where the odds of the player winning the dealer go up enough to favor the player, making the game one where the expected value is positive. At this point, the game is no longer a gamble because the player should make money.
Now let’s translate that to trading: If the expected value is negative, you are gambling. If the expected value is positive, it’s not a gamble. Therefore, always ask yourself the following question: ‘Do you know the expected value of the trade you are about to make?’ Because without knowledge and trading strategies that you have tested repeatedly over the long run, you cannot possibly measure the expected value of a trade, which means any approach you take is a gamble. And so, when trading is done statistically and skillfully, you can have a positive expected return over the long run. And this is how to tilt the odds in your favor.

09/08/2020

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13/06/2020

I think the Nasdaq100 will undergo some major corrections over the next 10 days.

21/03/2020

How smart can you be?😏