18/03/2026
The risk of a sharp US equity selloff this year just rose. Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni now pegs a 35% chance as the Iran war pushes oil above $100/barrel, strengthens the dollar and pushes out Fed rateโcut expectations. He still favours a โRoaring 2020sโ growth path, but the near-term skew is more bearish: higher inflation risk, narrower policy room for the Fed, and greater market volatility.
๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐:
1. Oil price shock: Oil above $100/barrel is central to the outlook; sustained high energy prices are cited as the channel that can raise inflation and weigh on growth.
2. Fed policy uncertainty: Markets have delayed expected rate cuts (from July to September or later) as traders price in stronger inflation and a more cautious Fed response.
3. Dollar as refuge: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index has risen (~2%), highlighting a flight to currency safety and potential stress for non-USD assets.
4. Market reactions: Equity futures and longโduration assets showed weakness (S&P 500 futures down, 10-year Treasury yields up) as investors repriced risk and inflation expectations.
๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/yardeni-raises-odds-of-markets-meltdown-to-35-on-iran-war-risks
๐๐ช๐ด๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ: ๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ช๐ค ๐ด๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ค๐ฆ๐ด, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ค๐ช๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ช๐ต๐ด ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ'๐ด ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ช๐ด๐ฌ. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ต๐ถ๐ฏ๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ฑ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญโ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐๐ณ๐ฐ๐ง๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด ๐ข๐ด ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ด ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด ๐๐ณ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ฆ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ต๐ด ๐ด๐ถ๐ฃ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ช๐ข๐ณ๐บ ๐ญ๐ฆ๐จ๐ช๐ด๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐จ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐จ.
US stocks are facing a growing risk of a sharp selloff this year as the escalating war in Iran hurts global markets, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, updating his outlook for what he describes as โfast-moving times.โ