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07/11/2024

GBP/USD has fallen nearly -5% since the September high. The three-day rally into the US election was followed by an aggressive outside day, yet it managed to hold above the 200-week and 200-day SMA. Support was also found around the weekly VPOC (volume point of control). If the BOE refrain from cutting and the Fed leave the door open to further cuts, GBP/USD could head for 1.30.

The 1-hour chart shows a false break of the November 1 low and is now within its third leg higher. I suspect GBP/USD is now trying to fill some of the liquidity gaps left during yesterday’s decline.
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Given the strong levels of support around the 1.2850 area (SMA, VPOC) and the rebound higher, the bias is for a move to 1.30. Bulls could seek dips towards 1.2880/90 or refer to lower timeframes and seek bullish continuation patterns.

06/11/2024

US Dollar rips higher after Trump secures presidential title with Red Sweep looming

● The US Dollar on a tear, with more than one-percentage gain against most major peers.
● Former US President Donald Trump secured over 270 electoral votes needed to become the next US president.
● The US Dollar index trades above 105.00, the highest level since early July.

05/11/2024

A Trump Presidency and the Fed:
At a fundamental level, Trump's policies are considered to be more inflationary. This implies that another Trump presidency could maintain the elevated levels of the US dollar and the yield curve, or even increase them, on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for an extended period. This argument becomes even stronger if US data continues to outperform.

● It could also be risk off for sectors and markets tied to trade, given Trump plans to slap a hefty 60% tariff on China’s imports, alongside less chunky tariffs for other trade partners
● Technology, manufacturing, energy, healthcare and consumer goods stocks could fade selling pressure from Wall Street
● USD/CNH could outperform as the USD rallies and China allow their currency to weaken in an effort to maintain competitive for trade
● This could spell trouble for AUD/USD (and therefore NZD/USD) which currently share a strong correlation with the yuan

04/11/2024

EUR/USD reverses the reversal

Despite a key reversal candle on Friday, the shift in betting markets has largely undone that move on Monday, giving traders a taste of what we might see when election results start to roll in late Tuesday in the US.

03/11/2024

Scenario analysis: potential election results
With betting markets favouring Republican candidate Donald Trump, the election carries asymmetric directional risks. It's tough to say what's priced in, but a Kamala Harris victory may arguably deliver the largest market reaction as traders unwind Trump-based positions.

Here's the anticipated USD/JPY reaction depending on potential election outcomes.

● Republican Red Wave (Trump victory, Senate/House Republican-controlled): USD/JPY likely rallies as the Treasury curve steepens, given the higher chance of expansionary fiscal policy.
● Democrat Blue Wave (Harris victory, Senate/House Democrat-controlled): USD/JPY upside, but not as strong as a Republican sweep given pre-election policy signals.
● Trump Victory, Split Congress: Policy gridlock could slow growth, weaken inflation, and increase chances of more Fed easing. Treasury yields are likely to fall, pulling USD/JPY lower.
● Harris Victory, Split Congress: Most bearish outcome for USD/JPY given likelihood of sizeable falls in US Treasury yields.

01/11/2024

US-European yield spreads narrow, underpinning EUR/USD rebound

As euro area data flow has become less negative, it’s helped to deliver a reversal of the prior widening in interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, proxied in the chart below by German bund yields. That’s been a factor behind the bounce in EUR/USD, as demonstrated by the strong inverse correlation between two, five and 10-year yield spreads over the past month. As the gap has narrowed, EUR/USD has bounced.

31/10/2024

With rate cut expectations being unwound aggressively, it’s resulted in large declines in Treasury futures further out the US interest rate curve. Two-year US Treasury note futures have been sliding ever since the Fed delivered its 50-point rate cut in September, only briefly pausing to test the 200-day moving average before slicing straight through it on increasing volumes. With momentum indicators continuing to provide bearish signals, it looks far easier to sell pops than buy dips given trend. That means higher US Treasury yields

30/10/2024

EUR/USD technical analysis:
The daily chart shows bullish range expansion broke out of the multi-day consolidation, which repeatedly failed to break the August low and held above the October trendline. Yet the RSI (2) is just within the overbought zone, and we have risk events looming including US PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls which could send the US dollar – and therefore EUR/USD – either way. Not to mention month-end flows which can provide fickle price action at the best of times.

Still, bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart looks constructive. Prices are respecting the 200-day MA and the 1.0874 high as resistance for now, so perhaps a pullback towards 1.0838 is on the cards. A softer set of PCE figures could help EUR/USD break above the 200-day MA upon the relative shift of central bank expectations between the Fed and ECB and allow EUR/USD to close the gap with rising EU-US 2-year yield differentials.

29/10/2024

● EUR/JPY eyes above 166.00 amid weakness in the Japanese Yen.
● The BoJ seems incapable of hiking interest rates further.
● Investors await Eurozone macroeconomic data and the BoJ policy announcement.

The EUR/JPY pair aims to extend its rally above the immediate resistance of 166.00 in Tuesday’s North American. The cross remains firm as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the forex domain amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is incapable of hiking interest rates further in the remaining year.

Market speculation for the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels by the year-end has strengthened after the outcome of Japan elections in which the ruling party failed to gain a majority. This has raised uncertainty over economic growth stability

28/10/2024

Twice now, the GBP/USD has bounced right where it needed to: at just over the 1.2900 handle, where the long term bullish trend line going back to September 2022 comes into play. But the cable continues to find resistance around the 1.2980-1.3000 area, which must be reclaimed to boost the appeal of the cable for the bulls. If reclaimed, we could see price squeeze higher towards 1.3050 initially and then potentially climb to the next area of resistance around 1.3150. However, if resistance holds here, then the bears will likely have another crack at the bullish trend line later on this week. A breakdown looks to be on the cards. Potential supports below the trend will come in around 1.2870, followed by 1.2800 area where the 200-day MA converges.

All told, the technical GBP/USD forecast still remains bearish despite today’s recovery. We are yet to see a clear bullish reversal pattern on the chart of the cable. Until that happens, there is no reason to call the bottom

27/10/2024

🚨Key Events

Middle East: ceasefire deal or further retaliations?
US Advance GDP (Wednesday)
Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (Thursday)
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
Technical Analysis: USOIL
Middle East: Ceasefire Deal or Further Retaliations?
With US elections just two weeks away, hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East remain uncertain, challenging the ongoing downtrend in oil prices. Investors are hedging against the potential for further market volatility, with haven assets and crude oil in focus.

While gold ended the week near record highs and oil held steady above the $70 mark, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran—despite no direct attacks on oil supplies—keeps the risk of further retaliations on the horizon, threatening to disrupt oil markets further.

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http://fxshw.com/

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