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Yesterday saw announce that he will inject 1.2 billion pounds into the , sparking thoughts of an early . Members of ...
06/08/2019

Yesterday saw announce that he will inject 1.2 billion pounds into the , sparking thoughts of an early . Members of his team have stated that this is not something that will happen before the 31st October deadline, however we did see 23-month lows on GBP/EUR yesterday following the increased probability of a general election.

Markets continue to look closely at Johnsons Brexit policy...A busier calendar this week with plenty of releases from th...
17/06/2019

Markets continue to look closely at Johnsons Brexit policy...

A busier calendar this week with plenty of releases from the Bank of England, ECB and Fed and of course, the ongoing leadership race.

The main UK focus will remain the Conservative party leadership contest where according to latest odds, Boris Johnson looks 80% certain to be the next Prime Minister. The markets continue to look closely at Johnsons Brexit policy. Encouragingly, his recent rhetoric has softened slightly and his priority is to renegotiate a new deal in the limited time available rather than leave with a no deal in the first instance. If a deal were to be reached we could expect significant support for Sterling.

Outside of the political situation, we have the following to look forward to; from the UK we have CPI inflation figures on Wednesday then Retail Sales and the BoE policy announcement on Thursday. BoE governor mark Carney will then speak on Thursday evening with analysts looking for any signals of a push for higher interest rates on the horizon.

From the US we have the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, at the moment we are expecting rates to remain unchanged although the markets have priced in at least one cut from the Fed before the end of the year. Another major release will be the PMI data which is released on Friday afternoon which give us a good insight into economic conditions with the US.

For the Eurozone we have an important week of survey data led by the composite Eurozone PMI in June, the forecast suggests a slight increase on previous figures. Speeches from ECB’s Draghi could meanwhile impact the Euro when he speaks publicly at 18.00 on Monday, 15.00 on Tuesday and 15.00 on Wednesday.

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Pound continues to dip with ongoing Brexit uncertainty..Sterling continues to be driven by the current political situati...
05/06/2019

Pound continues to dip with ongoing Brexit uncertainty..

Sterling continues to be driven by the current political situation today, with latest suggestions hinting that the Pound looks unlikely to recover its recent losses against the Euro or Dollar.

The current situation surrounding the Conservative leadership race adds to the number of factors which are causing uncertainty surrounding our outlook. There are now 12 candidates hoping to secure the position and we could potentially see more enter the race before the June 10th deadline. With just 3 months left before the 31st October deadline, we are now using up valuable negotiating time. The Conservative party have suggested they hope to have a final 2 chosen by the end of next week and a new PM in situ by the end of July.

The very real threat of a ‘no deal’ Brexit and subsequent vote of no confidence from parliament would likely point to general election being called. This again is a concern for investors as a Labour govt. with Corbyn at the helm would be a negative move for the Pound. Today see the release of PMI figures but again, we can expect that to be overshadowed by the wider political climate.

From the US we saw comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell which were the strongest indication so far that interest rates could be cut before the end of the year. Powell stated at an event in Chicago that the Fed would ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’. This is an important development as the value of currency are closely linked to interest rate movements, generally, higher interest rates increase the value of that country’s currency. All eyes are now on Fridays release of the non-farms payroll.

05/06/2019

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