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Colmex Pro Global Ltd, London (2026)

02/01/2026

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03/06/2024

Sweden's SBB sets up another joint venture with Castlelake to tackle debt
SBB said on Saturday it is forming a joint venture with U.S.-based private credit firm Castlelake, its second in about three months, which will help ease the Swedish real estate group's debt woes.
Under the deal, SBB and funds managed by Castlelake have signed a loan agreement of 5.7 billion Swedish crowns ($534.36 million). The joint venture will use the funds to acquire properties from SBB, refinance debt to the Swedish firm and also certain external debt, according to an SBB statement.
Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) SP Partners will be part of the lenders, it said. The portfolio will be operated through a management agreement with SBB from which the properties are being acquired for 9.5 billion Swedish Crowns, the market value as of March 31, 2024, it added.
SBB and Castlelake signed a similar deal in February for another joint venture to receive a loan of 5.2 billion Swedish crowns.
SBB announced in March it is buying back its debt at a discount of 60% compared to their original value, in an attempt to calm investors' nerves as it scrambles to tackle a multi-billion debt pile.
The Swedish landlord predicted earlier this month that financing conditions would improve as it was making further write downs on the value of its properties.
($1 = 10.6669 Swedish crowns)

03/06/2024

A strong first 100 days suggests a strong rest of the year for the S&P 500
Analysts at Bank of America Securities said in a note Friday that the S&P 500's strong first 100 days paves the way for a bullish rest of the year.
According to the bank's research, when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ in the first 100 days, the rest of the year is strong: up 76% of the time on an average return of 7.1% (9.3% median).
"Success breeds success. May 23 was the 100 trading day of 2024, and the S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied 10.4% YTD," declared the bank.
"This equates to SPX 5640 to 5750 into yearend 2024," adds the firm. "The average and median rest of year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to SPX 5530 to 5650 into yearend."
BofA notes that the S&P 500 being up first 100 days is also bullish for the rest of an election year.
"When the SPX trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year tends to be strong with the index up 93% on an average return of 10.1% (SPX 5800) and a median return of 8.9% (SPX 5730)," they explain. "Rest year returns for all election years show the SPX up 88% of the time on average and median returns of 8.8% (SPX 5730) and 8.5% (SPX 5700), respectively."
The index tends to have a summer rally and Presidential election years can see big summer rallies.
"June-August is the second strongest 3-month period of the year for all years going back to 1928 with the SPX up 65% of the time on an average return of 3.2% (SPX 5430 from the 5/23 close)," BofA states.
"In Presidential election years, the SPX is up 75% of the time from June-August on an average return of 7.3% (SPX 5650 from the 5/23 close)."

03/06/2024

Thoma Bravo exploring a sale of its stake in edtech firm Instructure
Private equity firm Thoma Bravo initiated steps to potentially sell Instructure, an education software provider valued at $3 billion.
The firm, owning an 83% stake in Instructure, has engaged JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) to seek interest from prospective buyers, which may include other private equity entities, Reuters reported.
The potential sale announcement led to Instracture shares rising 4.5% in afterhours trading Friday.
Instructure is a prominent player in the educational technology sector, offering software services to educational institutions across various levels. The company boasts a global customer base, with over 8,000 clients in more than 100 countries.
Thoma Bravo took Instructure private in a $2 billion deal in 2020 and subsequently relisted it through an initial public offering a year later.
However, the company's stock has been trading close to its $20 IPO price for the past three years. T
he initial surge in demand for remote learning tools during the pandemic has waned as competition in the sector increased.
Earlier in the year, Instructure expanded its offerings by acquiring Parchment, a company specializing in academic credential management, for $835 million.

03/06/2024

The market is still underestimating the number of cuts this year: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley economists offered insights into recent economic data and its implications for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
While market pricing has shifted in favor of two rate cuts this year, and the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is now seen as a "plausible live meeting," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients on Friday.
Accordingly, "the market is still underestimating the number of moves this year." However, the brokerage firm added that more evidence would be required for the Fed to begin cutting rates.
The shift in expectations follows a series of economic reports, including April's jobs numbers and retail sales data, which signaled a transition from previous upside surprises to downside surprises.
Notably, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April did not significantly underperform expectations, but rather aligned with them, providing relief to financial markets.
Morgan Stanley had anticipated this change in trend, expecting disinflation to resume, yet projecting the Federal Reserve to maintain rates until September due to data volatility.
Inflation figures appear to be on a downward trajectory based on April's inflation figures. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, which had spiked to an annualized rate of 4.4% in March from 1.6% in December 2023, is projected to decelerate, with April's core PCE tracking at 0.26% month-over-month compared to 0.32% in March.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the three-month annualized pace will fall back to 2.7% by June.
While a rate cut in July may be premature, three cuts throughout the year could be appropriate, the economists concluded

03/06/2024

SoftBank seen returning to loss in Q4 despite tech stock strength
Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group is expected to slip back into the red when it reports earnings on Monday despite technology stocks including Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM), its core asset, performing well over the quarter.
Analysts and investors are also eagerly awaiting clues about new growth investments as SoftBank has ample liquidity and can monetise its huge holding in Arm.
The share price of Britain-based Arm, in which SoftBank has a 90% stake, roughly doubled in February after strong earnings results stoked investor excitement over Arm's anticipated gains from the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI), but Arm's share price does not feed into SoftBank's profit as it is a subsidiary.
The performance of SoftBank's other listed assets were mixed over the quarter - shares in Coupang and DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH) rose but DiDi Global and Grab Holdings fell. The initial public offering (IPO) market remained subdued, leaving analysts uncertain of the monetisation prospects for SoftBank's portfolio of unlisted tech startups.
SoftBank is slated to record a net loss of 72 billion yen ($462.70 million) over January-March, according to the average of two analysts polled by LSEG, compared to a 985 billion yen net profit in the previous three months.
SoftBank's management has said it is ready to make new growth investments but has stressed it will adopt a cautious approach.
New investments were minimal in the October-December quarter but analysts say a large, controlling acquisition - along the lines of its $32 billion purchase of Arm in 2016 - could be in the offing.
SoftBank could fund up to $30 billion by combining its liquidity at hand as of the end of 2023, the proceeds of bonds issued in March and by negotiating a margin loan on its Arm stake, according to calculations by Nomura Securities credit analyst Shogo Tono.
But while the Arm stake may make possible an investment on this scale, its dominance within SoftBank's portfolio poses a risk should market sentiment turn, hitting SoftBank's value and fundraising capacity.
Currently Arm trades at premium valuations far in excess of competitors such as Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) that have pushed it to constitute almost half of SoftBank's equity value.
Some analysts warn this is unsustainable. Moningstar analyst Javier Correonero estimates a fair value for Arm of $57 per share, compared to its recent trading range around $100 per share.
Investors were disappointed by Arm's annual revenue forecast at its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, sending its shares tumbling up to 8.5% the following day and underlining the risk of a major rerating.
($1 = 155.6100 yen)

03/06/2024

When will Fed's balance sheet reduction end?
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction to avoid unnecessary market disruptions.
Starting June 1, the cap on Treasury securities allowed to mature without replacement will be reduced to $25 billion from the current $60 billion monthly limit. However, the $35 billion cap on monthly mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoffs will remain unchanged, with any excess principal payments being reinvested into Treasury securities.
The adjustment in the runoff pace was largely anticipated, though there was uncertainty about whether it would be announced at this Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting or the one in June.
Also, many analysts had expected a drop in the Treasury runoff cap to $30 billion, making the decrease to $25 billion slightly surprising.
“The treasury caps will be reduced to $25 bln/mth, somewhat lower than the $30 bln/mth we had expected,” said Citi economists.
“Fed will end balance sheet reduction if they are easing policy in response to a recession. We continue to expect a recession in our base case for this year and thus we expect the Fed would end balance sheet reduction in September,” they added.
However, if economic activity remains more robust than anticipated, Citi projects that the balance sheet reduction could continue until the end of the second quarter of 2025.
Citi economists attribute this partly to the balance sheet reduction slowing more than initially expected. However, even under different Treasury General Account (TGA) scenarios and with reverse repo operations potentially draining to zero, they believe bank reserves should remain elevated throughout the year without significant increases in secured and unsecured overnight rates relative to administered rates.
Economists said they will monitor the volatility and levels of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and the effective federal funds rate as early indicators that reserves might be approaching ample levels.
During the week ending May 1, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by roughly $40 billion. Treasury holdings dropped by $21.9 billion, while MBS holdings decreased by $12.7 billion. Lending via the discount window saw a slight decline, and loans issued through the Bank Term Funding Program fell by $1.4 billion.
Meanwhile, a notable change on the liability side was the $17.8 billion decrease in foreign official deposits, reversing the previous week's increase. This suggests that a foreign central bank or institution needed to complete a USD transaction between April 24 and May 1. Foreign official reverse repo dropped modestly by $8 billion.
The Treasury is also reducing its cash account following significant tax-week inflows, with TGA balances down by $38.9 billion to $890 billion. A slight reduction in reverse repo led to a $45 billion increase in bank reserves, reaching $3.3 trillion.

03/06/2024

Goldman Sachs criminal case over 1MDB formally ends
A U.S. judge on Monday formally ended the U.S. government's criminal case against Goldman Sachs related to the Wall Street bank's work for the Malaysian fund 1MDB after it met its obligations and paid $2.9 billion in penalties.
Chief Judge Margo Brodie of the federal court in Brooklyn dismissed a bribery conspiracy charge against Goldman, after the bank successfully completed a three-year deferred prosecution agreement that expired in October.
Goldman did not oppose the dropping of the criminal charge.
The bank helped sell $6.5 billion of bonds for 1MDB, which former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak set up with the help of Malaysian financier Jho Low to promote economic development.
U.S. and Malaysian authorities have said $4.5 billion was siphoned away, with some diverted to offshore bank accounts and shell companies linked to Low, who is now a fugitive.
Goldman has said 1MDB officials and former Malaysian government officials lied to it about how bond sale proceeds would be used.
The bank collected about $600 million in fees, and its Malaysia unit pleaded guilty to a corruption charge.
Two former Goldman bankers were criminally charged in the matter.
Tim Leissner, who led Goldman's Southeast Asia business, pleaded guilty and has yet to be sentenced.
Roger Ng, a former head of investment banking in Malaysia, was convicted in Brooklyn and sentenced to 10 years in prison, but transported to Malaysia last October to assist probes there.

03/06/2024

Goodyear Shares Tumble on Revenue Miss
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:GT) experienced a 3.8% decline in share price following a first-quarter revenue miss.
Despite surpassing analyst estimates for adjusted earnings per share (EPS), the company reported revenue of $4.54 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $4.78 billion. The tire giant's adjusted EPS came in at $0.10, notably higher than the analyst projection of -$0.01.
Goodyear's first-quarter results revealed a net loss of $57 million, an improvement from the $101 million loss in the same quarter last year. The company's segment operating income rose to $247 million, a significant $122 million increase YoY.
This was attributed to a strong performance in the Americas, where segment operating income more than doubled from the previous year to $179 million, and a segment operating margin of approximately 7.0%. Additionally, the Asia Pacific segment saw a substantial margin increase of 350 basis points to 10.0%.
The company's CEO, Mark Stewart, commented on the results, "Our first-quarter performance demonstrates the strength of our Goodyear Forward initiatives, which delivered $72 million in benefits. Despite industry challenges, we've made significant progress in our transformation efforts."
The positive impact of these initiatives, however, was overshadowed by a revenue shortfall. The Americas' sales dropped by 9.7% due to lower replacement volumes and unfavorable price/mix, influenced by industry weakness in commercial truck segments and contractual price adjustments. Tire unit volumes decreased by 7.4%, with replacement tire unit volume down by 9.2%. In contrast, original equipment unit volumes remained flat.
The EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) segment also faced a 9.7% decline in sales, driven by similar factors as the Americas, with a flat segment operating income of $8 million. The Asia Pacific region, however, bucked the trend with a 3.4% increase in sales, largely due to higher original equipment volume, particularly EV fitments in China.
Investors reacted negatively to the revenue miss, as evidenced by the stock's downward movement. Goodyear's efforts to mitigate inflationary costs and lower volume impacts through its Goodyear Forward plan were not enough to assuage market concerns over the revenue shortfall in the first quarter.
The company's financial health is further underscored by its segment operating income improvements, which reflect the benefits of price/mix versus raw materials and the cost savings from its transformation plan. Despite these gains, the market's response indicates a focus on the immediate revenue challenges faced by Goodyear.

03/06/2024

Apple renews talks with OpenAI for iPhone generative AI features, Bloomberg News reports
Apple Inc has renewed discussions with OpenAI about using the startup's generative AI technology to power some new features being introduced in the iPhone later this year, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
The companies have begun discussing terms of a potential agreement and how OpenAI features would be integrated into Apple’s next iPhone operating system, iOS 18, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and OpenAI did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Bloomberg reported last month that Apple was in talks to license Google's Gemini chatbot for new iPhone features.
Apple has not made a final decision on which partners it will use, and could reach an agreement with both OpenAI and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc's Google or pick another provider entirely, the Bloomberg report said.
Apple has been slower in rolling out generative AI, which can generate human-like responses to written prompts, than rivals such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google, which are weaving them into products.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said in February that the company was investing "significantly" in generative AI and would reveal more about its plans to put the technology to use later this year.

03/06/2024

Planemaker Embraer CEO says supply chain has been improving
The chief executive of Brazil's Embraer said on Friday that supply chain issues impacting planemakers have been improving but some challenges remain.
Francisco Gomes Neto told reporters at an event in Sao Jose dos Campos, where the company is based at, that Embraer is in a "very good place" right now after overcoming some difficult years.
Last month, Neto said the company's estimate for 2024 aircraft deliveries would be higher if not for supply chain bottlenecks frustrating planemakers.
Embraer intends to invest some 2 billion reais ($390.9 million) in the country this year and hire over 900 people, Neto said at Friday's event alongside Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Embraer said in a statement after the event that the investment plan includes the development of technologies to be used in the "flying car" which has been in production by its subsidiary Eve.
Embraer added it intends to invest further in its service and defense segments, as well as in projects aimed to increase efficiency and industrial activity.
The world's third-largest planemaker behind Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Airbus, Embraer currently estimates deliveries of executive jets between 125 and 135 this year, compared with 115 in 2023.
Deliveries from its commercial aviation segment are expected to be between 72 and 80 planes, up from 64 aircraft it delivered last year.
($1 = 5.1161 reais)

03/06/2024

CNH picks Iveco Group's Marx as new chief executive
The holding company of Italy's Agnelli family has overseen a shakeup at the top of two of its major industrial groups, with Scott Wine quitting his post as CEO of farm and construction machinery group CNH to be replaced by Iveco boss Gerrit Marx.
The two companies said on Sunday Marx will replace Wine from July 1. Turin-based Iveco said it had appointed board member Olof Persson as its new CEO.
Iveco and CNH are both controlled by the Agnellis' Exor (AS:EXOR). Iveco Group's current market capitalisation amounts to around 3.4 billion euros ($3.6 billion), less than one fourth that of CNH.
A German national, Marx guided Iveco, the Italian bus and truck maker, through its spin-off from then parent CNH, which was finalised at the beginning of 2022, and through its first years as a stand-alone company.
Iveco shares doubled their value between November and the beginning of this month, before slightly correcting later in April.
By contrast, CNH shares lost more than 30% of their value since highs touched last year, when it cut its revenue forecast and announced a plan to reduce its workforce, citing softening demand for its farm machinery.
CNH said Wine was leaving the company to pursue other interests, and that the board had accepted his request to leave at the end of the current three-year business plan cycle.
Amid the Iveco spin-off, CNH has increasingly focused its business on precision agriculture, including with the acquisition of U.S. group Raven (NASDAQ:RAVN) Industries in 2021.
CNH recently completed a plan to drop its New York and Milan double listing and focus on a U.S.-only listing set-up.
Marx had last month presented Iveco's new business plan targeting a 20% bump in revenue by 2028.
Persson, a 59 year old Swede, has covered in his career executive positions in several manufacturing companies, including CEO at Iveco's competitor Volvo (OTC:VLVLY) Group.
He has been closely involved in the development of the group's recently presented business plan, Iveco said in its statement.
CNH also said its board had decided that its Investor Day scheduled for May 21 would be postponed to allow Marx to lead the company's planning and objectives for the next phase of its development
($1 = 0.9386 euros)

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