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Continuum Economics is a leading global independent macroeconomic, policy and financial markets research firm.

Our global client base consists of banks, asset managers, corporations, central banks and government organisations.

21/08/2026

🌍| Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/587da1eb/big-em-currencies-no-us-yield-pressure

20/08/2026

🇨🇳 | China could reduce its excess current account surplus by a package of real Yuan appreciation.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/9461a830/china-widening-ca-surplus

19/08/2026

🇺🇸 | FOMC minutes from July 29 are due today and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/74196890/fomc-minutes-preview-hawks-doves-and-data-dependents

18/08/2026

🇺🇸 | Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/1a3ed075/slicing-and-dicing-us-inflation-why-different-measures-are-at-the-centre-of-fed-debate

17/08/2026

🌍 | Major EM currencies are not showing significant pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields or Fed tightening fears. Domestic fundamentals remain the key driver, while we expect choppy EM FX conditions against the USD to continue through H2 2026.

https://ow.ly/JITv50ZAtGn

14/08/2026

🇹🇼 | Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28.

https://ow.ly/tZ6c50Zy4tg

13/08/2026

🇧🇷 | BCB cut by 25bps to 14%, as widely expected. The statement suggests that COPOM is looking to pause the easing cycle, but we feel there is enough to deliver one further 25bps cut in September and then the BCB pauses into Q1 2027.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/f22069ae/brazil-25bps-cut-for-september

12/08/2026

🇺🇸 | Back in the day, for payrolls-watchers, 200k was considered a steady number, just borderline okay but nothing special. Anything sub 100k on a consistent basis might start to be looking towards stall speed.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/205129e1

11/08/2026

🇺🇸 | We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/d6ed2b3e/preview-due-august-12-us-july-cpi-another-subdued-month-if-less-so-than-june

10/08/2026

🇺🇸🤖| Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story. AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.

https://continuumeconomics.com/a/0a0d0277/ai-equities-correctionconsolidation

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