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OOPS! Bunds extend their slide led by the long-end of the curve, driving the German 30y yield to the highest since Jan20...
07/08/2023

OOPS! Bunds extend their slide led by the long-end of the curve, driving the German 30y yield to the highest since Jan2014. German 30y yield rises 8bps to 2.71%, eclipsing the prior year-to-date high set in March.

From , which has now fallen behind other big nations in Europe w/the exception of Italy. This refutes the thesis that G...
06/08/2023

From , which has now fallen behind other big nations in Europe w/the exception of Italy. This refutes the thesis that Germany is the biggest economic beneficiary of the introduction of the .

OOPS! Container rates – measured by Drewy's World Container Index – are now below pre-pandemic levels. Shipping group Ma...
06/08/2023

OOPS! Container rates – measured by Drewy's World Container Index – are now below pre-pandemic levels. Shipping group Maersk warned of a steeper drop this year in global demand for shipping containers. Global container trade will probably contract as much as 4% this year, down from Maersk’s previous prediction of as much as 2.5%

Ruble tumbles to the weakest level since March 2022 while a Russian court sentenced opposition leader Alexey Navalny t...
06/08/2023

Ruble tumbles to the weakest level since March 2022 while a Russian court sentenced opposition leader Alexey Navalny to another 19yrs in prison after convicting him of “extremism”. The Ruble is entirely managed by the Central Bank and the reason they have reduced the rate is to help the Finance Ministry manage budget deficit. The problem here is because Russia is having to sell oil at a 25% discount to Brent and that means the budget receipts are well short of forecast, Christopher Weafer of Chief Executive Officer of Macro-Advisory says.

Only one can be right. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says he is shorting US Treasuries. if long-term inflation is 3% ...
06/08/2023

Only one can be right. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says he is shorting US Treasuries. if long-term inflation is 3% not 2%, the 30y Treasury yield could rise to 5.5%. In contrast, Warren Buffett has announced buying positions in 10y US Treasuries. Shorting US 10y bonds seems to be one of the most crowded trades at the moment.

is the Sick Man of Europe, again, for 3rd time since reunification. German econ is the only one among the big ones tha...
29/07/2023

is the Sick Man of Europe, again, for 3rd time since reunification. German econ is the only one among the big ones that is below pre-Corona level. Q2 data showed no growth after a recession. Enduring industrial weakness is overshadowing outlook.

OOPS! M2 money growth turned NEGATIVE for the first time in Eurozone history, in a promising sign for . M2 growth rev...
27/07/2023

OOPS! M2 money growth turned NEGATIVE for the first time in Eurozone history, in a promising sign for . M2 growth revised to -0.1% in May from initially +0.3%, and falls deeper into negative territory in June to -0.5%.

raised interest rates to the highest level in 22yrs as expected and left the door open to additional increases as offi...
27/07/2023

raised interest rates to the highest level in 22yrs as expected and left the door open to additional increases as officials fine-tune their effort to further quell . The quarter percentage-point hike, a unanimous decision, lifted the target range for the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level since 2001. It marked the 11th increase since March 2022, when the rate was near zero.

Russia ships the bulk of its oil (43%) from Black Sea ports, where Greek oil tankers dominate capacity (top left, blue)....
23/07/2023

Russia ships the bulk of its oil (43%) from Black Sea ports, where Greek oil tankers dominate capacity (top left, blue). The idea that Putin has leverage to threaten Ukraine's grain exports is absurd. Russia's war machine depends entirely on western-owned ships to keep going...

Russia's Ruble has stabilized. The summer months are always a soft spot for the Ruble - the June current account was in ...
23/07/2023

Russia's Ruble has stabilized. The summer months are always a soft spot for the Ruble - the June current account was in deficit - but now rising oil prices are giving the Ruble a lift, which helps Russia's war machine. Cutting the G7 oil price cap from $60 to $50 is way overdue...

Bulls now outnumber Bears by 30% in the AAII Sentiment poll, the largest positive spread since April 2021.Last fall, Bea...
21/07/2023

Bulls now outnumber Bears by 30% in the AAII Sentiment poll, the largest positive spread since April 2021.

Last fall, Bears outnumbered Bulls by 43%.

What changed?

A 30% rally in the S&P 500.

prices keep rising after Ukraine warns on Russia ships in a tit-for-tat response to a similar warning from Moscow. Bot...
20/07/2023

prices keep rising after Ukraine warns on Russia ships in a tit-for-tat response to a similar warning from Moscow. Both Ukraine & Russia are major grain exporters & Ukraine’s exports have been severely restricted by war. Black Sea ports are a major exit point to global markets.

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