29/09/2026
Daily Desk | Gold (XAU/USD)
Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Bias: Downtrend. Correction = liquidity hunt.
After the distribution, gold is repairing in order to test resting liquidity.
Bears still own the tape. The trend is lower.
The dollar is consolidating, not weakening. A hawkish Fed and higher rates keep gold unattractive. Any bounce is likely to be sold unless Friday’s NFP is weak enough to cut the pricing of two rate hikes this year.
Near-term markers: JOLTS and Fed speakers. Into NFP, price can hold the 4,100–4,230 range.
Path
Focus on 4,195–4,230 resistance. A squeeze into that zone can fail and send price back toward 4,110–4,050 support. 4,110 was the new low of the distribution. 4,000 support is the extension if 4,065–4,110 give way.
Board
Resistance: 4,195 / 4,230 / 4,275
Support: 4,110 / 4,065 / 4,000
What hurts gold: rising yields, a strong dollar, hawkish Fed, Middle East escalation, further long liquidation.
What helps gold: weak Friday NFP, lower yields and a weaker dollar, de-escalation, short covering.
Desk view
Distribution first. Correction second. 4,195–4,230 resistance is the retest. 4,110–4,050 support is the follow-through.
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Educational commentary. Not investment advice.