03/02/2026
I have been thinking all weekend about how the current conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran could affect Canadians and their mortgage.
First, there are obviously far more important human issues at stake than interest rates. I do not want to minimize that. At the same time, my job is to keep you informed on how events like this can impact your home financing so you can make calm, informed decisions.
Right now, we are at a sort of crossroads.
On one side, the economy has been doing worse than expected.
Growth is slowing
Unemployment is higher
Inflation had been trending back toward the 2% target
Normally, that combination puts downward pressure on interest rates over time.
On the other side, this new conflict directly affects the global oil supply. When oil prices rise, that often leads to higher inflation.
Higher or stickier inflation can put upward pressure on interest rates, or at least delay the cuts many people were hoping for.
How this plays out depends a lot on how long and how severe the conflict is.
If it is short-lived and contained, markets may refocus on the weaker economy, which usually points to lower rates.
If it is prolonged or escalates, sustained higher energy prices could keep inflation higher for longer, which can lead to higher or “higher for longer” rates.
I have been working to give you a clear answer on which way this will go.
The honest answer: nobody knows for sure. Anyone pretending to know the exact path of rates from here is guessing.
So what do you do with that?
Your risk tolerance and time horizon should drive your next move, not the headlines.
If you value certainty and sleeping well at night, you may lean toward locking in more security, even if it is not the absolute perfect rate.
If you are more comfortable with short term volatility and are focused on optimizing every last dollar, you may choose a different strategy.
There is no one-size-fits-all answer. There is only what fits you.
If you would like to walk through what this means for your specific mortgage and risk tolerance, hit “reply” with the word UNCERTAIN and I will set up a conversation
If you are not already on my mortgage monitoring system that alerts you when it actually makes sense to move to a lower rate, mention that in your reply and I will add you at no cost.
In uncertain times, having a clear plan that matches your personality matters more than trying to predict the future.
Talk soon,
Jeff