04/07/2026
Our Chief Global Market Strategist isn’t a military strategist, yet he’s often asked to opine on military conflicts. The current conflict in the Middle East is no exception. He tries to stay focused on interpreting what markets themselves are telling us. Right now, here’s what he’s seeing in his preferred indicators:
▪️ Shifting toward a slowdown. Our short-lived global expansion signal has shifted toward a slowdown. We’re not seeing recessionary readings, but momentum is fading. Tactically, he believes a slowdown environment argues for maintaining stock exposure, but with greater emphasis on quality and more defensive areas of the market.
▪️ Business cycle. Our preferred cyclical indicators are trending in the wrong direction, but they aren’t pointing to disaster. Taken together, a gradual but not meaningful deterioration in cycle indicators suggests that markets still appear to believe in an exit ramp and an eventual resumption of the expansion once near-term uncertainty fades.
▪️ Market bottom. Has the market already found its bottom? Major stock indexes have already corrected. However, based on our preferred market bottom indicators, the answer for now is that the bottom is likely still ahead.
Read our latest weekly market commentary: https://inves.co/4csn0D8