06/10/2026
Day 295. Everyone saw the $500 headline. Almost nobody read the probability I put next to it: 8%.
I’m telling you my own headline number probably doesn’t happen - and that’s exactly why the math works. At $4, you’re paying almost nothing for the tail.
Last Thursday I sat with Opendoor’s CEO and President in Toronto. Three layers to the plan. One proof point already live: a 4.99% mortgage rolling to 40 states by September.
Full piece on the Substack, link in bio. Every call stamped,
dated, graded — misses stay on the board.
Long OPEN, personally and at the fund. Not investment advice — do your own work.