Triton World Investments

03/06/2026

𝗧𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗮𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗬𝗲𝘁 — 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗦𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀

Two months into 2026, the Toronto housing market still looks less like a recovery and more like a market working through the late stages of a correction.

February data from TRREB shows 3,868 home sales, down 6.3% from February 2025—which is notable because last year was already one of the weakest sales environments in decades. When activity falls below an already depressed baseline, it tells us something important about where we are in the cycle.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 “𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗿” 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀

Heading into this year, many assumed the market had already found its bottom in 2025. The early data suggests otherwise.

Instead of stabilizing, 2026 has started even slower, effectively breaking through last year’s floor for early-year activity. In practical terms, the typical spring momentum—when buyers return and listings surge—has yet to materialize.

That’s usually a sign of buyer hesitation, not just affordability pressure.

Right now, many buyers appear stuck in a prolonged wait-and-see phase.

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴

Another signal of soft demand: homes are taking longer to sell.

Average days on market: 36 days (+33% YoY)

Property days on market: 54 days (+28.6% YoY)

When listings sit longer, it typically means leverage has shifted toward buyers. Negotiation is replacing urgency—something the market hasn’t seen much of since the pre-pandemic years.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲

Perhaps the most striking development is in the condo sector.

Median condo prices have now returned to roughly February 2020 levels (around $590K). In other words, the segment has effectively erased six years of appreciation in just a few years.

That kind of reset is rare in Toronto’s housing history and reflects how sharply investor demand and entry-level affordability have been affected by higher borrowing costs.

Freehold housing still retains some pandemic-era gains—but the entry-level segment has undergone a far more complete recalibration.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 “𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗼𝘅”

One of the more unusual trends in the current data is what could be described as an inventory stalemate.

Normally February brings a surge of listings ahead of spring. This year:

New listings fell 17.7% YoY

Active inventory slipped 2.4% YoY

That doesn’t reflect strong demand. Instead, it appears many sellers are choosing not to list into a weak market.

When buyers wait for prices to stabilize and sellers wait for conditions to improve, the result is exactly what we’re seeing today: low transaction volumes and a frozen market.

𝗔 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁

The shift in negotiating power is becoming more obvious:

Condo months of inventory now exceed 7 months, a clear buyer’s market threshold.

The sale-to-list price ratio has dipped below 100%, meaning homes are selling under asking on average.

For anyone who remembers the bidding wars of 2020–2022, that’s a major psychological shift.

𝗔𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗜𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

Not every market within the GTA is cooling equally.

More affordable areas—particularly parts of Durham Region like Whitby and Oshawa—are still seeing tighter conditions and stronger buyer competition.

That reinforces a key reality of the current cycle:

Affordability is now the dominant driver of demand.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Markets rarely move in straight lines after a major boom. They overshoot on the way up—and they often spend time rebalancing on the way down.

Right now the Toronto market appears to be in that rebalancing phase:

Sales remain historically weak

Listings are constrained by cautious sellers

Buyers are waiting for clearer signals on rates and pricing

Until confidence returns on both sides of the transaction, expectations of a rapid rebound may be premature.

For now, the data suggests the Toronto housing market is doing what markets often do after a major expansion:

𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗶𝘂𝗺.

01/30/2026

𝐆𝐓𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐞-𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐨 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠.

December 2025 recorded only 87 pre-construction condo sales across the GTA, the lowest monthly result in 45 years of tracking.

Total new home sales of all types were 240 units, which is more than 80% below the 10-year average.

From an investor standpoint, what matters isn’t the headline — it’s the second-order effects:

1) Construction supply is being shut off
Urbanation reports condo apartment sales fell 60% in 2025 vs 2024, and remain 90%+ below long-run averages.

That kind of decline doesn’t “cool” supply — it halts it.

2) Capital formation breaks

Only 10 condo projects launched in 2025, and 28 active projects (~7,200 units) were cancelled.

When pre-construction becomes unfinanceable:

• lenders tighten
• equity pauses
• developers stop launching
• labour demand collapses
• and the future housing pipeline dries up

3) The real affordability impact comes later

The most important point is timing. Today’s cancellations don’t show up as immediate shortages. They show up 2–4 years from now when completions fall and rental supply tightens again.

This is why policymakers can’t treat this as a “market correction.”
It’s a structural breakdown of the primary housing delivery mechanism.

Smart capital will adjust. But if policy doesn’t, we risk:

• job losses in trades and supply chains
• delayed infrastructure and community growth
• worsening rental pressure
• and ultimately, higher long-term housing costs

This is the moment to engineer a functioning pipeline — not celebrate a slowdown.

01/21/2026

Private-sector builders are responsible for roughly 90 per cent of housing supply. It is therefore critical that governments focus on fixing the barriers affecting that market.

Canada’s housing crisis won’t fix itself. RESCON's president argues that reducing taxes, reining in development charges and speeding approvals are essential to getting homes built in 2026

01/15/2026

Affordability has improved, prices declined, and borrowing costs eased. Despite this, sales volumes continued to fall, Ontario’s housing market is now operating under different rules.

Affordability has improved. Prices are down. Rates are off their highs. So why aren’t buyers coming back?

12/26/2025

Connected by the snowbird market, ITSO and the Miami Association of Realtors have launched an agreement that gives members access to each other’s listing data.

11/25/2025

Despite the budget’s claim that “unprecedented investment in building homes for Canadians…
https://realestatemagazine.ca/opinion-budget-2025-builds-mansions-not-affordability/”

The federal budget promises a housing transformation. What it delivers is selective prosperity and a deeper divide in the Greater Toronto Area.

11/11/2025

Definitely, a full market correction. Homes are taking longer to sell. Relist cycles are increasing. Public sentiment surveys show heightened anxiety about employment security and renewal risk. The conditions that normally signal the bottom of a cycle, such as rapid absorption, visible investor re-entry and the return of bidding in pockets of the market, are absent.

October’s TRREB data paints a picture of a housing market still in retreat — where even falling prices can’t lure buyers back

10/07/2025

𝐑𝐁𝐂: 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐝

Falling interest rates, flattening prices and increased household income made housing more affordable for Canadians from the end of 2023 to the middle of this year.

However, Ontario markets appear especially vulnerable.Poor affordability and weakening job prospects weigh heavily on the Toronto market, challenging both buyers and sellers.

Affordability improvement has slowed as earlier gains from falling rates and rising incomes fade, with weaker wage growth and job losses now threatening purchasing power

10/07/2025

𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐬 𝟑𝟔% 𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲

Slower population growth and ongoing uncertainty are reducing urgency among buyers.

Read more:

With more homes hitting the market and slower demand, Calgary’s housing sector is tilting toward buyers, adding pressure on prices in September

08/20/2025

The number of properties sold to foreigners ticked up for the first time in eight years.

Sales of pre-owned homes to non-US citizens climbed 33% in the year through March — the first increase since before the pandemic.

08/15/2025

RBC has lowered its forecast for home resale activity for 2025, but is holding out hope for the remainder of the year and 2026 as economic uncertainty eases

05/10/2023

𝐈𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐚𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐟𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐥𝐞𝐲 𝐂𝐮𝐩 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑, 𝐰𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞!

A team of Kitchener-Waterloo realtors has announced an exclusive promotion for anyone looking to sell a home in the Waterloo Region.

The Saunders Tremblay Realty Team put the offer together quickly recently, just before the Leafs fell behind three games to none to the Florida Panthers in the National Hockey League playoffs. Game four is Wednesday night.

Realtor Michael Saunders explains the plan was in motion well before the Leafs found themselves facing elimination, “My son and I watched a hockey game (recently), and it was just so exciting. He said, ‘Dad, this is a great idea; Leafs Nation is going crazy. Let’s roll the dice.’ The Leafs were the favourites. They were due to win,” said Saunders.

https://www.kitchenerwaterloo-realestate.com/leafs-promo/