Shane Krupa, Wealth Advisor

07/09/2026

The Irony of Conservative Investments

If one were to Google, “What is the most conservative, or safest, investment?” the answer would invariably be T-bills, essentially loans to governments. As one moves further away from "conservative" on the spectrum of available investments and toward "risky," the asset classes progress from T-bills, to bonds, to equities.

To beat myself to the punch, and for those who don't have time to read this in full, lending our money to governments is, from a true capital preservation perspective, about as effective as using it as kindling to start a summer bonfire... As one might imagine..

Let’s first distill what the goal of most investors is, and what conservative really means, then contrast that with the historical reality of these investments.

The primary goal of any investor, boiled down, is to grow at varying degrees, or at the very least maintain their purchasing power over a given period of time. In other words, to preserve or even enhance their ability to exchange wealth for goods and services.

Merriam-Webster defines conserve, a synonym of preserve, as keeping something safe, intact, or in its original state, protecting it from harm, decay, or ruin. One would think an investment widely accepted and labelled as conservative would do just that.

With this definition in mind, consider that from 1990 to 2024, inflation in Canada averaged 2.2% per year according to Statistics Canada.

Over the same period, 30-day T-bills averaged a return of 3.2% per year. That's roughly 1% of purchasing power growth before taxes.
Apply an average 33% tax rate to the interest income, and purchasing power actually declined by approximately 0.06% per year over that 34-year period.

What if we look at the period from 2000 to 2024? Before tax, the annualized inflation-adjusted return of 30-day T-bills was -0.01%.

After taxes, that becomes roughly a 0.84% annual loss in purchasing power, compounded over two and a half decades. Sounds more like decay than preservation.

What about zooming further out, capturing the period in the late 70's and early 80s where interest rates were in the double digits?

From 1974-2024, inflation averaged 3.8%,
Annualized T-Bills averaged 5.5%.
(As some would recall- within this period, from 1979-1996 interest rates on 30-day T bills averaged 10%)

All that considered, after taxes are factored in once again, our real return averaged about -.11% per year.

Now compare that to the 'ever so risky' MSCI World Index, which captures the returns of global equity markets.

From 1970 to 2024, the index delivered an annualized return of approximately 10.4%. inflation was 3.9%.

After accounting for inflation and a reasonable estimate of taxes (equities are considerably more tax-efficient than interest-bearing investments, with capital gains effectively taxed at about half the rate of interest income), investors still achieved roughly a 4.75% real return—an annual increase in purchasing power compounded over 34 years.

The irony is that most "conservative" investments available to us have historically failed to meaningfully preserve purchasing power at all, while simultaneously increasing the probability of individuals eventually outliving their savings. Meanwhile, the asset class we're conditioned to believe is "risky" has historically outpaced inflation and successfully preserved and grown wealth over the long run.

It seems to me that "conservative investments" may be a misnomer.

06/11/2026

Over the past decade or so, a historical anomaly has emerged: growth companies have outperformed value companies in stock market returns by a wide margin. Historically, dating back to 1927, this has not been the case. Value companies have consistently and rather significantly outperformed growth companies over the long run, largely due to stable profitability and strong fundamentals rather than future promise or perhaps, speculation.

Today, if an investor allocates money to the S&P 500 (the 500 largest companies in the United States), approximately 50% of that investment is concentrated in technology and communication companies, while roughly 41% is concentrated in just 10 large growth companies. Think Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and others.

This trend creates a subtle but important risk: the potential to become heavily concentrated in specific companies and industries, perhaps without even realizing it.

With that in mind, building a robust multi-decade, multigenerational investment portfolio requires careful planning to ensure these risks are not inadvertently overlooked.

Image source: Dimensional Fund Advisors

04/28/2026

Canada is floating the idea of launching its own sovereign wealth fund—basically a government-backed investment pool aimed at owning pieces of major projects across energy, infrastructure, mining, and more.

The pitch is simple: instead of just funding growth, Canadians could participate in it and benefit from the returns. It would start with about $25B and invest alongside private capital, with the goal of generating long-term wealth for the country.

Sounds good on paper—but unlike traditional sovereign funds built on surplus cash (think Norway), this one raises fair questions about where the money comes from and whether we’re truly creating new wealth… or just reshuffling it.

Does this sound like more monkey business to you, or a good opportunity to participate in some domestic investment? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Fund has a mandate to invest in domestic projects

04/06/2026

There’s an account available to Canadian investors that’s often misunderstood and sometimes gets more flak than it deserves.

RRSPs.

Common things we hear:

• “You don’t really save tax—you just pay it later.”
• “RRSPs can create a big tax bill at death.”

Both statements have some truth—but they miss the bigger picture.

To really understand RRSPs, we need to look a little deeper.

1. The Tax Deduction
RRSP contributions are often made with after-tax dollars.
But when you contribute, you receive a tax deduction, which effectively means:

That income is not taxed today

Example:
• Invest $5,000 per year
• Tax rate: 35%
• Tax refund: $1,750
That $1,750 is money that would have otherwise gone to the CRA.

Here’s where it gets interesting…

2. The “Gross-Up” Effect (Where Most People Underrate RRSPs)
If you reinvest the refund:
• $5,000 contribution → $1,750 refund
• Reinvest $1,750 → generates another ~$612 refund
• Reinvest that → ~$214 refund…and so on

This creates a compounding loop of deductions.

The result?
A $5,000 after-tax contribution becomes:
~$7,692 invested annually
That’s $2,692 of additional capital working for you—money that otherwise would have been sitting in CRA’s coffers.

3. The Tax Shelter Inside an RRSP:
• No tax on dividends
• No tax on capital gains
• No tax on interest
Your money is free to compound at the full rate of return.

Compare that to a non-registered account:
No tax deductions
Taxes are incurred every year on investment growth
This creates a tax drag that quietly erodes compounding over time
Even a small drag (1–2%) over decades makes a massive difference.

4. What About Taxes at Death?
This is the most common concern—and it’s valid.

At death:

• RRSPs are typically taxed as income- if there is substantial capital in the account at the death of the last spouse, this can push the estate into a higher tax bracket.

But here’s the key.

You’re comparing:
Deferred, uninterrupted compounding on a larger base
vs
Ongoing taxation on a smaller base

In many cases, even with a higher final tax rate, the RRSP still comes out ahead, sometimes very substantially.

The Big Picture
RRSPs aren’t just a “tax deferral tool.”

They are:
• A way to reclaim capital that would have been taxed
• A way to increase your invested base
• A way to eliminate annual tax drag
• A way to maximize long-term compounding

Final Thought:
If the refund is spent, the RRSP is good.
If the refund is reinvested, the RRSP is powerful.
And when fully optimized, it becomes one of the most effective long-term wealth-building
tools available to Canadians.
The key isn’t just using an RRSP—
it’s understanding how to use take advantage of them.

03/25/2026

In Monday's post, we spent some time dissecting the laws and principles that govern modern financial markets.

Today, I want to distill that into a few key takeaways.

What really is the stock market?

At its core, the stock market is a direct reflection of human ingenuity and progress. Every good produced, every service delivered, every breakthrough in technology, energy, medicine, agriculture, and transportation—it's all captured within global financial markets. And in our capitalistic society, any individual has the opportunity to become a part owner of this global progress.

What does the market show us, despite the constant bombardment of fearful headlines?

That humankind—on balance—has been on a remarkably resilient upward trajectory for as long as written history has existed.

If you believe otherwise, it may be worth questioning whether your worldview aligns with the data. Because without that alignment, it becomes difficult to meaningfully participate in—and benefit from—the continued progression.

Consider a few datapoints:

• In 1900, roughly 70–80% of the global population lived in extreme poverty.

Today? Around 10% 🌍

• In 1900, global life expectancy was about 32 years.

Today? Approximately 73 years ❤️

• In 1945, the first computer filled an 1,800 square foot room and weighed 30 tons.

Today? A smartwatch holds more computing power than 10,000,000 of those early machines combined. ⌚

Humankind is on an optimistic path.

Yes, we often take two steps forward and one step back—but the long-term trend is what matters most.

For the lifelong investor, that trend is something you don’t fight, try to time, or out-smart… it’s something we hold onto and participate in.

03/23/2026

What if financial markets aren’t random at all?

Today, I want to pose a few questions about the underlying principles that have governed financial markets since antiquity.

Are there lasting patterns that can guide us as investors?
Or are markets truly random?

To begin, it’s important to consider the order that exists in our world—and, by extension, in our financial markets.

One guiding principle is this: there is either underlying order in the universe, or there is not. Both cannot be true. E cannot equal MC²—except for the odd occasion where it equals MC³. If it did, the universe would fly apart.

Despite the chaos constantly flooding the headlines and the tensions in geo-politics, there is underlying order that has persisted far longer than any of us have been alive. If we think we see order alternating with chaos, it’s more likely that a larger underlying order exists—one we don’t yet fully understand, and therefore fear.

As two-time Nobel prize winner, Marie Curie said:
“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.”

This principle applies directly to financial markets.

Day to day, markets can feel random—and we are often force-fed the belief that they are. It can seem as though markets are little more than a globally connected casino. We are taught that markets are random and chaotic, which makes it impossibly difficult to create a robust lifetime investment plan that we can stick with.

But over longer periods, markets are anything but. They are logical.

At their core, financial markets reflect something deeper.
They directly reflect the progress and ingenuity of humankind.

With everything considered, anyone who believes humanity has not been on an upward trajectory must hold a worldview that doesn’t align with the evidence. With over 2,000 years of recorded history to guide us, it becomes difficult to argue otherwise.

Consider this:
In 1900, an estimated 70–80% of the global population lived in extreme poverty. Today, that number is about 10%.
From 500AD to 1900, global life expectancy was roughly 32 years. Today, it’s about 73.
In 1945, the first computer weighed 30 tons and took up an 1800 square foot building. Today a smart watch holds more computing power than over 10,000,000 of these computers combined. To match the compute that a modern smart watch has today, in 1945- they would have needed a computer larger than the city of London, England. I would not want to guess how much energy that monstrosity would have needed to be powered.

In just the past century, we’ve witnessed extraordinary advances in technology, food production, medicine, and longevity to name a few.

Financial markets have reflected this.

There is something else that markets shed insight on, mass psychology and human behaviour.

As individuals, we are prone to countless cognitive biases; which cause us to make all kinds of irrational decisions in our day-to-day lives. And when billions of people act this way simultaneously, that behavior shows up in markets—especially in the short term.

Every day, we wake up, absorb headlines, and react.

But over time—after the noise fades and the dust settles—one thing persists:

The steady upward march of human progress. Not random, but inevitable.

So how do investors benefit from that progress?
Simple: Be disciplined, be diversified, and follow the money.
Over time, wealth flows into the hands of hardworking individuals participating in that global progress. And what do people do with money?

They spend it.

They buy food, smartphones, medicine, energy, transportation—everything that fuels modern life.

So the opportunity for investors is clear:
Own the businesses that provide these essential goods and services.

Because as the world continues to advance, so too will company earnings.
And as earnings grow, so too—over time—will stock prices.
And ultimately, so too will the value of a well-disciplined, long-term investment portfolio participating in this global progress.

03/18/2026

The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 2.25% again in its latest announcement.

Here’s the short takeaway:
Rates remain unchanged as inflation sits close to the 2% target—but the outlook is anything but
certain.

The Bank highlighted:
• Slowing economic growth and a softer labour market
• Ongoing uncertainty around global trade and geopolitics
• Rising risks that higher oil prices could push inflation back up

What does this mean?
There are pressures on both sides:
A weaker economy would typically support rate cuts…But inflation risks could still justify holding or
even raising rates if needed.

The key message:
They’re in “wait and see” mode.
For investors, this is a good reminder—
rate decisions are reactive, not predictive.

That said, trying to guess the next move is far less important than sticking to a plan that works in any environment over the long run.

The central bank held its policy interest rate at 2.25% on Wednesday

03/10/2026

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it" - Albert Einstein

In my practice, one of my greatest passions is helping families think beyond a single lifetime and plan for multigenerational wealth. It starts with one generation choosing to plant a seed—so future generations can continue watering and tending the soil, until one day the family enjoys the shade under a tree of freedom and opportunity.

What could happen if one generation got the ball rolling?

In this simplified example, the Miller family established an Inter Vivos trust and begins setting aside $75/month at the birth of their first child. At some point once the child reaches adulthood, they are passed the torch to continue contributions of $75/month. The parents retain control as trustees, and have access to the funds if needed- and have autonomy of how and when the next generation accesses the family wealth.

Assumed return of 8.5% compounded annually.

By year 50, the family set aside $45,000.
The Miller family wealth would have grown to $642,996.00.

By year 60, the family set aside $54,000.
The Miller family wealth would have grown to $1,467,761.00.

By year 70, the family set aside $63,000.
The Miller family wealth would have grown to $3,332,543.00.

By year 80, the family set aside $72,000.
The Miller family wealth would have grown to $7,548,783.00.

By year 90, the family set aside $81,000.
The Miller family wealth would have grown to $17,081,632.00.

Notice in the last 10 years, the growth becomes almost vertical. During this period, more wealth is created than the previous 80 years combined. Following the rule of 72, at an average 8.5% annualized return, wealth doubles approximately every 8.47 years. You could imagine what happens when subsequent generations take the reins and carry on the family discipline decade after decade.

Time is the most powerful asset any of us own, and we can all be the Millers.

03/06/2026

Record crop production in Saskatchewan in 2025.

According to post-harvest data from Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan farmers produced 41.9 million metric tonnes of crops last year.

That’s:
• +13.7% vs. 2024
• +24.1% above the 5-year average

Major crops by production:
• Spring wheat: 12.7 MMT
• Canola: 12.2 MMT (record)
• Durum: 5.4 MMT
• Barley: 3.5 MMT
• Lentils: 2.9 MMT (record)
• Dry peas: 1.8 MMT
• Oats: 1.8 MMT

Largest production increases in 2025:
• Lentils +37%
• Canola +16.7%
• Barley +16%
• Durum +8.5%
• Spring wheat +5.3%

The numbers are based on a post-harvest survey of 7,198 farmers conducted between October and November.

A strong year for Saskatchewan agriculture — and a reminder of the province’s importance to global food production. 🌾

Government of Saskatchewan ministries, Crown corporations and organizations are working to minimize the impacts of the postal service disruption.

03/05/2026

Predictably, with all the news being pushed out about the ongoing conflict in Iran- investors worldwide are getting nervous.

History paints us a remarkably clear and grounding picture.

Since the Korean War in the 1950’s, the average 1-year forward return for the S&P 500 after major geopolitical shocks has been +14.2%.

This includes events after:
• Korean War: +11.2%
• Cuban Missile Crisis: +27.8%
• Gulf War: +10.2%
• 9/11: -16.8%
• Iraq Invasion: +26.7%
• Brexit Vote: +19.7%
• COVID-19: +43.7%
• Ukraine Invasion: -7.4%

Markets price fear quickly.
They recover on underlying company fundamentals.
Uncertainty creates volatility.
Volatility creates opportunity.

Disciplined investors don’t flee to cash when the world feels unstable — they lean on process, diversification, and time.

The headlines change. Human behavior and investor psychology never does.

Image source: Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor’s