Debbie Duff - BRX Mortgages Inc.

05/19/2026

Bank of Canada sees no clear rate path amid tariffs and oil risks .....

Bank of Canada officials discussed a “range of views” on the most likely path for interest rates last month, weighing various possible outcomes of the Iran war and a review of the North American trade agreement.

04/29/2026

04/29/2026

BOC holds key interest rate at 2.25%.

04/10/2026

By: Dr. Sherry Cooper. Chief Economist

THE CANADIAN JOBS REPORT SHOWED A SMALL GAIN IN NEW NEW EMPLOYMENT WITH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 6.7%

Confusion over a fragile ceasefire continued yesterday as Israel ramped up attacks on Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz--a key oil shipping route whose closure has sent oil prices skyrocketing in recent weeks--reportedly remained closed. Normally, the Strait accommodates roughly 130 ships a day.

Tehran's control of the Strait choked off a globally important conduit for oil and gas, as well as the flow of vital materials such as aluminum, helium, fertilizer, and oil components used to make many plastics. Canada is rich in crude and critical minerals, a growing power in liquefied natural gas, and an important supplier of fertilizer and aluminum to the US, though Trump's tariffs on foreign metals have disrupted the latter industry.

A chunk of global oil production has been taken offline, which could have long-term implications, as the disruption to the free passage of ships through the Strait could linger. Many analysts believe it will take weeks to restore traffic in the Strait to normal levels. These supply disruptions are reminiscent of our COVID experience.

The US sees itself as the enforcer of the free passage of ships in international waters worldwide. If the US backs away from underpinning the free passage of goods, supply disruptions will accelerate.

It was with this backdrop that Statistics Canada released this morning's Labour Force report. Employment was little changed in March (+14,100; +0.1%) following a cumulative decline of 108,700 (-0.5%) over the first two months of 2026. The number of full-time and part-time workers both showed little variation in March.
On a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 87,000 (+0.4%) in March, largely reflecting gains over the final four months of 2025.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—was unchanged at 60.6% in March, following a cumulative decline of 0.3 percentage points in January and February. The employment rate in March was just above the recent low of 60.5% recorded in August 2025 and was down 0.3 percentage points year over year.

In March, there was little variation in the numbers of public- and private-sector employees and self-employed workers. On a year-over-year basis, the number of employees grew at a faster pace in the public sector (+1.2%) than in the private sector (+0.6%).

The unemployment rate was unchanged in March at 6.7%, following a 0.2-percentage-point increase in February. The unemployment rate was below the peak of 7.1% recorded in August and September 2025 and was little changed year over year. In comparison, the unemployment rate averaged 6.0% from 2017 to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among people who were unemployed in February, 15.2% found work in March. This was similar to the rate recorded in the same months in 2025 (14.7%) but was below the pre-pandemic average of 19.1% for the same months from 2017 to 2019 (not seasonally adjusted). This indicates that higher unemployment rates relative to the pre-pandemic period are mostly driven by slower hiring, rather than by increased layoffs.

The participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—was unchanged at 64.9%. On a year-over-year basis, the labour force participation rate was down 0.4 percentage points.

Average hourly wages surged unexpectedly to a 4.7% y/y pace, the fastest in more than a year and well up from 3.9% the prior month. Wages can be a volatile series, but that's a big bounce, and a move that the Bank of Canada will be watching closely. Meantime, total hours worked edged up 0.2% m/m after a deep dive in February. That still left hours worked down by 0.4% annually for all of Q1. The current consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 1.5% now hinges on an improvement in productivity growth.
Employment rose in 'other services' (+15,000; +1.9%) in March, offsetting a similar-sized decline in February. Employment in this industry, which includes repair and maintenance services, was little changed compared with 12 months earlier.

Chart 3 Chart 3: Employment change by industry, March 2026
Employment change by industry, March 2026

Chart 3: Employment change by industry, March 2026
Employment in natural resources also increased (+10,000; +3.0%), with nearly half of those gains coming from Alberta (+4,500; +3.2%). On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry was little changed at the national and Alberta levels.

On the other hand, employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing fell by 11,000 (-0.8%) in March, the first significant monthly decline since November 2023.

Although employment in health care and social assistance was little changed in March, it was up 94,000 (+3.3%) compared with 12 months earlier, the largest employment growth among industries. Over that same period, the largest employment decline among industries was in manufacturing (-44,000; -2.4%).

Bottom Line

In other news, the US CPI for March, released this morning, surged the most in nearly four years as the war with Iran sent gasoline prices skyrocketing. The CPI spiked 0.9% from February. Year-over-year inflation increased to 3.3%, the strongest pace since 2024. A record rise in gasoline prices was responsible for nearly three-quarters of the monthly advance. Core inflation rose at a slower 0.2% pace monthly pace.

The data underscore how the war in the Middle East is beginning to ripple through the global economy, worsening households' affordability woes. Gas prices have already surged at the pump, and, according to Bloomberg News, service providers, including Delta Air Lines and the US Postal Service, have warned of price hikes ahead.

The Canadian CPI data for March will be released on Monday, April 20, before the April 29 Bank of Canada announcement. The data will undoubtedly show a spike in price pressures, but given the geopolitical uncertainty regarding how long the disruption to oil tanker traffic will last, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep its powder dry at the next meeting. There is a real risk of stagflation, so inaction is the likely outcome, for fear of worsening tepid economic growth in response to what everyone hopes is a temporary surge in oil prices.

03/25/2026

Ontario eliminates the full 13% HST on newly built homes up to $1 million!

Big news for anyone working with newly constructed home buyers (especially in Ontario).

As of today, the province announced it's eliminating the full 13% HST on newly built homes up to $1 million and for the first time, this isn't limited to first-time buyers.

Every purchaser, including rental property investors, can access up to $130,000 in combined federal-provincial rebates on agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027.

This stacks on top of the federal First-Time Buyer GST Rebate (Bill C-4), which already saves eligible buyers up to $50,000.

To help your clients navigate which programs they qualify for, we've built a free HST Rebate Eligibility Calculator. Share it with your buyers so they can estimate their savings in under a minute and generate new leads.

This is the biggest tax incentive for new construction in years, and the one-year window means timing matters.

03/18/2026

THE BANK OF CANADA MAINTAINS ITS INTEREST RATE POLICY HEADING INTO SPRING

Be the expert
Mar 18, 2026
PROVIDED BY: First National Financial LP

The Bank of Canada is ushering in the spring by keeping its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. This determination was widely expected by economists despite some very recent changes in the economic indicators that the Bank uses as part of its deliberations. A summary of the Bank’s observations and rationale follows.

CANADIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
GDP in Canada contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025
This was weaker than expected at the time of the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), mainly because of a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories
Domestic demand grew by more than 2% due to strength in consumer and government spending, even as housing markets remained weak
Canada’s labour market remains soft as employment gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February

CANADIAN INFLATION AND OUTLOOK
Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), “eased further” to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January
CPI inflation excluding changes in indirect taxes as well as core inflation measures have also come down and are all “close” to 2%
Food inflation slowed in February but remains elevated
The sharp increase in global energy prices has led to increases in gasoline prices, and this will push up total inflation in the coming months

BOND MARKETS, CREDIT SPREADS AND F/X
Global bond yields have risen, equity market prices have declined, and credit spreads have widened
The Canada-US dollar exchange rate has remained relatively stable

GLOBAL ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Prior to war in the Middle East, the global economy was on pace to grow at around 3%, as expected in the January MPR
Economic growth in the United States has moderated but remains “solid,” driven by consumption and strong AI-related investment
US inflation remains above target and has evolved largely as expected
In the euro area, domestic demand is supporting growth while exports have contracted
China’s economy continues to be boosted by strength in exports, but domestic demand remains weak
War in the Middle East Increases Volatility; Too Early to Assess Impact on Canada
The Bank made special mention of increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets caused by war in the Middle East, noting that this development has “heightened the risks to the global economy.” The conflict’s breadth and duration, and “hence its economic impacts” are “highly uncertain.” As a result, the Bank said it is too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada.

RATIONAL FOR TODAY'S DECISION AND OUTLOOK
In commenting on its decision to hold its policy rate steady, the BoC made several comments:

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, global oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, and this will boost global inflation in the near-term
In addition to energy supply disruptions, transportation bottlenecks stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact the supply of other commodities, such as fertilizer
Financial conditions have tightened from accommodative levels.
Against this overall backdrop, the BoC’s Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty elevated, risks to growth look “tilted to the downside.” At the same time, inflation risks have gone up due to higher energy prices. The Bank said it will continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, and how the Canadian economy is adjusting. It will also monitor the unfolding conflict in the Middle East closely and assess its impact on growth and inflation.

The Bank added that it continues to expect the Canadian economy to “grow modestly” as it adjusts to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but it also acknowledged that “recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January.” Looking through the volatility, the Bank also said that recent data suggest ongoing weakness in exports.

FINAL COMMENTS
The Bank offered that as the outlook evolves, “we stand ready to respond as needed” with a commitment to ensuring that Canadians “continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.”

NEXT UP
The Bank is scheduled to make its next policy interest rate announcement on April 29th. First National’s executive summary will follow. In the meantime, please visit the Resources page of this website for other important insights.

03/18/2026

BOC MAINS RATE!

03/18/2026

CANADIAN INFLATION FALLS MORE THAN EXPECTED TO 1.8% IN FEBRUARY!
By: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist

Canadian headline inflation fell to 1.8% y/y in February, owing to high year-over-year comparables from the end of the GST holiday one year ago.

Canada's inflation rate slowed by more than expected last month, before the oil shock of the Iran war. The yearly inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Monday.

Justin Trudeau introduced a temporary GST/HST break on a range of goods in January 2025, which expired in mid-Feb 2025. This raised the price level in February 2025, reducing inflation in today's CPI reading. While the tax holiday initially drove annual headline inflation higher due to base effects, it's now reversing and causing a deceleration that will likely be reflected in the March inflation data as well. This is very good news for the markets, particularly if the war with Iran comes to a relatively short conclusion.

Core inflation measures also eased by more than expected in February. The consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 2%, while the central bank's trimmed and median measures of inflation both fell to 2.3%.

Shelter prices continued to decelerate last month, and were up just 1.5% from a year ago, the slowest pace in five years amid weak housing resales and smaller rent price increases.

Prices for food — a major sore spot for Canadian consumers — also rose at a slower rate. Yearly inflation for food purchased from stores was 4.1% in February, down from 4.8% the previous month. The deceleration was led by weaker price growth for frozen or fresh beef.

Still, grocery prices are up a cumulative 30.1% over the past five years.

Meanwhile, a more modest year-over-year deceleration in gasoline prices last month helped moderate the slowdown in headline inflation, with prices at the pump down 14.2% from 16.7% in January.

Gasoline prices were up 3.6% on a monthly basis, largely driven by higher oil prices ahead of the Middle East conflict and supply disruptions in some producer countries, Statcan said. Higher oil prices from the conflict in Iran are likely to show up in next month's CPI data.

BOTTON LINE

It is very good news that the inflation backdrop softened last month, before the onslaught of the Iran war and the oil price shock. Some of the weaker base effects will be evident in the March CPI data as well, mitigating the impact of soaring energy and commodity prices on next month's headline inflation number.

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve will remain on the sidelines on Wednesday as a relatively quick end to the Iran war would keep a lid on inflation. President Trump has asked NATO countries to send warships to the Middle East to help open the Strait of Hormuz. The sooner the war ends, the sooner the oil price shock will dissipate. Given the uncertainty, the central banks will do best to keep their powder dry this time around, particularly given that labour markets in both countries have weekend substantially.

01/28/2026

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS OVERNIGHT RATE STEADY AT 2.25%

01/12/2026

RATE CUTS MAY BE DONE. NOW, IT'S ABOUT THE RIGHT MORTGAGE GAME PLAN......BORROWERS EYEING FIXED OR VARIABLE RATES NOW FACE A DIFFERENT QUESTIONS; WHAT CAN THEY LIVE WITH LONG TERM??

CALL/EMAIL ME TODAY TO DISCUSS YOUR OPTIONS
[email protected]/705-229-6180 cell

By: Leah Golob
Mon, January 12, 2026 at 8:42 a.m. EST

"If we're levelling out at the bottom, there's a strong chance that rates are going to rise again in the next three to five years," said Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker at Mortgage Outlet and a LowestRates.ca expert.

More
As mortgage rates stabilize, prospective homebuyers who have been waiting on the sidelines may find now is a good time to jump in.

“We’ve moved into a much more normalized rate environment,” said Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker at Mortgage Outlet and a LowestRates.ca expert.

“There’s no clear signal that rates are heading materially lower, and in some cases, we’re already seeing lenders adjust pricing upwards. That makes it important for borrowers to focus on what’s available now rather than wait for a perfect moment that may not come.”

The housing market is also favouring buyers right now, Zlatkin says, so there may be opportunities to find good deals. According to Zoocasa, only a third of Canada’s major markets have seen prices rise since January 2025.

For those considering a mortgage, here are a few things to keep in mind:

Look beyond the rate
A common misconception among Canadians is that the only thing that matters in a mortgage is the rate, Zlatkin says.

It is like walking into a car dealership and weighing between vehicles that cost $30,000, $40,000 and $50,000 without considering that the first might have two-wheel drive, the second might have four-wheel drive, and the third might be able to handle all terrain, she says.

“Different cars have different functionality, just like different mortgages have different functionality.”

One key consideration is portability, which allows borrowers to take their mortgage with them if they move to another home. If they plan to upsize within the next five years, or potentially relocate later in life to be closer to family, that flexibility can be important.

There are also differences in prepayment options, Zlatkin says. When variable rates were rising, many borrowers saw their amortizations lengthen and chose to make extra payments to reduce interest costs.

“Some banks will offer you 10 per cent prepayment privileges,” she said, while others might allow up to 20 per cent. Exceeding those limits can trigger penalties.

Some lenders also offer a home equity line of credit tied to the mortgage, which can be useful for homeowners planning renovations.

Predictability or flexibility: Which matters more?
Some investors buy stocks and do not look at them for years, while others watch the markets every day — and every dip or increase affects their mood, Zlatkin says.