FSW Group of Companies (Amelie Arndt)

FSW Group of Companies (Amelie Arndt) Helping to provide the most professional investment assistance

With over 5 years of asset and portfolio management experience and experience as a professional trader, I have a deep understanding of all aspects of the industry.

Gold bases on Thursday after experiencing a 3.0% fall on Wednesday following the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the p...
11/07/2024

Gold bases on Thursday after experiencing a 3.0% fall on Wednesday following the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential race.
A stronger US Dollar, capital pivoting into riskier assets, and potential unwinding of geopolitical risks were all bearish drivers.
Technically, XAU/USD extends its short-term downtrend although the RSI momentum indicator is oversold.

the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has entered deep into oversold territory, indicating short-holders should not add to their positions. If the RSI exits oversold, sellers are advised to close their trades and open tentative longs, as it will be a signal that the price will probably correct higher.

Due to the bearish short-term trend, a break below the $2,643 daily low would confirm a continuation, probably to the next downside target at $2,605, the trendline for the long-term trend.

EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0770 ahead of Fed policy while Trump's victory keeps downside bias intactGerman three-party c...
11/07/2024

EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0770 ahead of Fed policy while Trump's victory keeps downside bias intact
German three-party coalition collapsed, paving the way for snap elections in early 2025.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50%-4.75%.

EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.0770 after discovering buying interest below the key support of 1.0700. However, the major currency pair’s recovery appears to be lacking strength as declining 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.0860 and 1.0920, respectively, suggest a strong bearish trend.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats below 40.00, suggesting a resumption of the bearish momentum.

The upward-sloping trendline around 1.0800, which is plotted from the April 16 low at around 1.0600, will act as a key resistance zone for Euro (EUR) bulls. Looking down, the shared currency pair could decline to the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.0600.

Investors expect the Bank of England to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points.Deflationary pressures in the UK increase...
11/07/2024

Investors expect the Bank of England to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points.
Deflationary pressures in the UK increased further in September.
The 200-day SMA around 1.2810 supports GBP/USD's decline.

As inflation slowed in September, market participants seem to favor a rate cut by the Bank of England at its monetary policy meeting on November 7 at 12:00 GMT.

FXStreet senior analyst Pablo Piovano noted that a rate cut could put further pressure on the pound, which could fall further if GBP/USD falls below the November low of 1.2833 (November 6). In this case, the next point of contention should appear at the key 200-day SMA of 1.2811, ahead of the July low of 1.2615.

"On the upside, bulls will initially focus on the interim 55-day SMA at 1.3119. A breakout above this area could bring the 2024 peak of 1.3434 (September 26) back into focus," Pablo concluded.

Gold goes out of favor as capital piles into the US Dollar, Bitcoin and Stocks. Donald Trump is now expected almost cert...
11/06/2024

Gold goes out of favor as capital piles into the US Dollar, Bitcoin and Stocks.
Donald Trump is now expected almost certainly to be the next US President.
Technically, XAU/USD extends its short-term downtrend to key support.

A break below the range and the daily low at $2,701 would confirm a lower low and further weakness. Such a move would probably fall to the next support level at $2,687, the September 26 swing high.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling in line with price, suggesting bearish pressure accompanies the downward trend.

That said, the precious metal remains in an uptrend on a medium and long-term basis, and a material risk remains that it could reverse course and begin rising in line with these broader up cycles. However, there are no technical signs of this happening yet.

A break above the all-time high of $2,790 would re-confirm the medium-term uptrend and probably lead to a move up to resistance at $2,800 (whole number and psychological number), followed by $2,850.

GBP/USD plunged against the US dollar after Trump won the US presidential election.Trump's victory could severely weaken...
11/06/2024

GBP/USD plunged against the US dollar after Trump won the US presidential election.
Trump's victory could severely weaken the UK's economic growth.
Investors expect the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
GBP/USD fell to an 11-week low near 1.2850, in line with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The GBP/USD pair faced significant selling after mean reversion to around the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around 1.3000.

GBP also saw an ascending channel breakout on the daily timeframe, suggesting that a bearish reversal has been triggered.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell back below 40.00, suggesting that bearish momentum has resumed.

On the downside, the round-number support of 1.2800 will act as a major buffer for GBP bulls; on the upside, GBP will face resistance near the psychological level of 1.3000.

Gold prices remain sideways. XAU/USD fluctuated between $2,730 and $2,748 during the trading day, with no factors causin...
11/05/2024

Gold prices remain sideways. XAU/USD fluctuated between $2,730 and $2,748 during the trading day, with no factors causing it to move outside of this range.

The relative strength index (RSI) shows that momentum remains bullish, but buyers seem to have lost a step as the RSI moves lower in the bullish zone.

Gold buyers need to recapture the psychological barrier of $2,750 to continue the bullish trend. Once broken, the next stop would be the record high of $2,790. Conversely, if XAU/USD closes below $2,750 on a daily basis, further weakness lies ahead.

The first support level is the October 23 low of $2,708. Once broken, the next stop would be $2,700, followed by the September 26 swing high, which became support at $2,685, and then the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,628.

From a technical perspective, last week’s break below the top boundary of the ascending channel that has been in place s...
11/05/2024

From a technical perspective, last week’s break below the top boundary of the ascending channel that has been in place since late July and the subsequent pullback from the all-time high can be seen as a sign of exhaustion in bullish sentiment. However, mixed oscillators on the daily chart call for caution before further declines. Therefore, any further decline is more likely to find some support around the $2,720-2,715 horizontal zone, below which the price could challenge the trend channel support, which currently stands around $2,690. Some follow-up selling would signal a bearish breakout and pave the way for some meaningful corrective declines in the near term.

On the other hand, the $2,748-2,750 zone now appears to be an immediate hurdle ahead of the $2,790 zone, the all-time high set last Thursday. This is followed by the $2,800 round number mark and the ascending channel resistance around $2,820. A sustained break above the latter would be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the price to continue its recently established uptrend.

Gold prices attracted bargain hunters after hitting a one-week low on Tuesday and were supported by a variety of factors...
11/05/2024

Gold prices attracted bargain hunters after hitting a one-week low on Tuesday and were supported by a variety of factors.

Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, falling US bond yields and weak demand for the US dollar continued to boost the precious metal.

Middle East tensions further benefited the safe-haven currency XAU/USD and pushed it to a slight intraday recovery.

EUR/USD is struggling to break through the current resistance at 1.0900, which also coincides with the 200-day exponenti...
11/05/2024

EUR/USD is struggling to break through the current resistance at 1.0900, which also coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair rebounded sharply in late October and found its footing near the upward sloping trendline around 1.0750, which was drawn from the April 16 low of around 1.0600.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to around 50.00, suggesting some signs of a bullish reversal. However, this will only be confirmed if the RSI (14) climbs decisively above 60.0.

On the upside, if the pair breaks above the 200-day EMA near 1.0900, it could rise to the September 11 low near 1.1000. On the downside, the October 23 low of 1.0760 will act as a key support area for euro bulls.

EUR/USD fluctuates around 1.0900 ahead of the US presidential election, which will affect market sentiment.Investors exp...
11/05/2024

EUR/USD fluctuates around 1.0900 ahead of the US presidential election, which will affect market sentiment.

Investors expect a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.

Election betting markets narrow: Trump vs Trump-Harris is too closeOn November 4th - just one day until Election Day in ...
11/04/2024

Election betting markets narrow: Trump vs Trump-Harris is too close
On November 4th - just one day until Election Day in the United States - betting markets show that the tight race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is heating up.
The battle for Congress and the White House: betting markets show surprising odds

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated to 60 after rising above 70 earlier this week, ...
11/04/2024

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated to 60 after rising above 70 earlier this week, indicating that the bullish bias remains after gold corrected overbought conditions. Moreover, XAU/USD remains within the ascending regression channel since June.

Looking south, the first support level may be at $2,700, the midpoint of the ascending channel, followed by $2,675 (20-day simple moving average) and $2,635 (lower limit of the ascending channel).

On the upside, temporary resistance seems to have formed at $2,750, followed by $2,770 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and $2,800 (round number levels).

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