23/04/2026
Good Intentions, Tough Outcomes: The First‑Home Buyer Scheme Effect
Stronger price growth below the cap: Since the scheme’s expansion in October, homes priced below the deposit guarantee caps rose 6.7% over six months, compared with 3.6% growth for homes above the caps. 📈🏠
Market fragmentation: This divergence shows the housing market is increasingly split between lower‑priced, entry‑level homes and higher‑value properties, with demand concentrating strongly in the former. 🔀🏘️
Drivers of competition:
* Demand “brought forward” as buyers rushed in ahead of the scheme’s rollout ⏩👥
* Serviceability constraints from higher interest rates pushing buyers towards cheaper properties 💸📉
* Rising investor activity, with investors making up around 40% of mortgage demand in Q4, adding to competition faced by first‑home buyers 🏦⚔️
Regional impacts: The trend is evident across almost all capital cities and regions except Regional WA & NT, with Sydney showing the largest gap as under‑cap homes rose while above‑cap homes declined. 🗺️📊
Shrinking affordable supply: As prices rise, the proportion of suburbs with median values below the price caps has fallen sharply, reducing choice for first‑home buyers. 🔍⬇️
Outlook: The scheme’s stimulatory impact is expected to fade as more properties exceed the caps and buyers face tighter borrowing constraints, with demand shifting toward outer‑city, regional areas and more affordable units. 🔮🏘️
Source: https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/first-home-buyer-scheme-fuels-competitive-tensions-at-the-lower-priced-end-of-housing-market