07/11/2023
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Cloud Bridge columnist :"Steady Saudi Decisions Indicate Rising Concerns Over Crude Oil Demand"
Saudi Arabia has made two recent decisions that, on the surface, suggest stability in the oil market, but may indicate growing concerns about demand conditions.
The world's largest oil exporter has announced that it will keep the benchmark crude oil prices stable for its Asian customers' December shipments and declared that it will maintain voluntary production cuts until the year's end.
State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) stated on Monday that it will keep the official selling price (OSP) of major Arab light-grade cargoes loaded by Asian refineries in December unchanged, at a premium of $4 per barrel. This ends five consecutive price increases for this grade, which, in turn, has led to lower profit margins for Asian refineries as they face higher crude oil costs they can't fully pass on through higher product prices.
Given weak recent refining profits, the market expected the OSP for Asian Arab light crude to remain unchanged. The per-barrel profit for a typical Singapore refinery ended Monday at $4.04, up from a recent low of $1.45 on October 17. However, it remains well below the 2023 peak of $15.40 on August 28.
In an environment of economic uncertainty, soft demand for refined products in Asia may also have played a role in Saudi Aramco's decision to maintain the Arab light OSP.
Although concerns about supply have increased due to the long-standing bloody conflict between Israel and Gaza's Hamas, the situation has eased in recent days as there have been no actual interruptions in oil shipments from the Middle East.
It's worth noting that Saudi Aramco did raise the OSP for its Arab Extra Light crude, which has similar qualities to global benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude. The December OSP for the cargo carries a premium of $4.05 per barrel over Oman/Dubai, higher than the $3.35 per barrel for November shipments.
The increase in Arab Extra Light crude prices reflects the recent strength in prices for light high-sulfur crude.
However, it also suggests that Asian refineries might seek cheaper cargoes from the Atlantic Basin, particularly as the premium of Brent crude over Dubai has trended narrower in recent weeks, falling to around 47 cents per barrel in early Tuesday trading, below the recent peak of $4.15 on September 28.
Production Cuts Saudi Arabia announced on November 5 that it will extend the voluntary 1 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut for an additional month in December.
In addition to the cuts agreed upon as part of the broader OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia began additional production cuts in July, ostensibly to stabilize the crude oil market, although most observers believed the cuts were aimed at boosting prices.
The extension of the additional 1 million bpd daily cut might suggest that crude oil demand isn't as robust as OPEC expected.
It's worth noting that oil produced and exported in December won't reach Asian refineries for several weeks, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may not be anticipating a surge in crude oil demand in the first quarter of 2024.
Data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed that Asian crude oil imports in October exhibited some resilience, rising from 26.60 million bpd in September to 27.36 million bpd.
However, in terms of daily barrels, the total imports for October were only the sixth-highest monthly total for 2023, indicating that the largest importing region had lost some crude oil demand in the second half of this year.
China, the world's largest importer, took in 11.9 million bpd in October, up from 11.18 million bpd in September, but both months were below August's 12.49 million bpd.
August was supposed to be the last month of purchasing crude oil before further production cuts by Saudi Arabia resulted in a strong price rise in early July.
Brent crude futures rose from a low of $71.57 per barrel on June 28 to a high of $97.69 per barrel on September 28, as Saudi Arabia, the second-largest oil exporter in the world after Russia, tightened supply with Russia's help, cutting output by 300,000 bpd.
On Tuesday, Asian morning trading saw Brent crude prices fall to around $84.79 per barrel.
However, given the time lag between cargo schedules and actual deliveries, the high prices in August and September may become evident in November and December imports.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author, a columnist for Cloud Bridge.