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07/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

"Gold Prices Slip as US Dollar Strengthens, Investors Await Fed Chairman's Speech"

Here is a summary based on the provided information:

· As of 0116 Greenwich Mean Time, spot gold dipped 0.1% to $1,975.35 per ounce, while US gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,982.10 per ounce.
· The US dollar, which had touched a six-week low in the previous trading day, rose 0.1%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.6327%.
· Investors are closely watching whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will maintain the dovish stance adopted after last week's policy meeting during his speeches scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.
· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook expressed her desire for the current target interest rate to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.
· Meanwhile, Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari suggested that the Fed may have more work to do in controlling inflation.
· It is expected that the overnight lending rate will remain above 5% by June next year.
· Higher interest rates have reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold, although it is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation.
· The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund reported a 0.50% increase in holdings from 863.24 tonnes on Friday to 867.57 tonnes on Monday.
· In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned the possibility of a "tactical small pause" in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate aid delivery or hostage evacuation.
· Spot silver fell 0.3% to $22.95 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.1% to $904.34 per ounce, and palladium declined 0.3% to $1,103.16 per ounce.

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency...
07/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

"Gold Prices Hit Near Two-Week Low Amid Stronger Dollar and Waning Safe-Haven Appeal, All Eyes on Fed's Jerome Powell"

Gold prices fell to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday due to a strengthening US dollar and reduced safe-haven demand. Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, to gain further clarity on interest rate prospects.
As of 0717 Greenwich Mean Time, spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,968.30 per ounce, the lowest level since October 25. US gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,974.20 per ounce.
The US dollar rose 0.3% after touching a six-week low in the previous trading day, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Financial market analyst Kyle Rodda stated that the current situation still revolves around geopolitical risks, and the risk appetite for gold seems to have diminished, with prices reflecting this sentiment.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned that Israel would consider a "tactical small pause" in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate aid delivery or hostage evacuation. However, Israel has once again rejected calls for a comprehensive ceasefire despite increasing international pressure.
Meanwhile, following weak US nonfarm payroll data for October last week, investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to complete interest rate hikes has strengthened.
However, Federal Reserve Governor Neel Kashkari suggested that the central bank may have more work to do to control inflation.
Kyle Rodda noted, "What could cause volatility is Powell's speech. In addition, the upcoming government bond auctions over the next few days, if we see somewhat lackluster demand... that might put upward pressure on yields again and bring some downward pressure on gold."
Investors are now eagerly awaiting the speeches scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday to see if Chairman Powell maintains the dovish tone he expressed following last week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund reported an increase in holdings on Monday, rising by 0.50% to 867.57 tonnes.
Spot silver fell 1.1% to $22.77 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.6% to $899.50 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.6% to $1,100.38 per ounce.

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency...
07/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

Nigeria Introduces New Crude Oil Grade 'Nembe' to Boost Production Amid Challenges

Nigeria's state-owned oil company, NNPC Ltd, has introduced a new crude oil grade called Nembe as part of its efforts to boost oil production. This comes as Nigeria has faced challenges such as crude oil theft, attacks on pipelines in the Niger Delta, and lack of investment, resulting in declining production and reduced government revenues. The production of Nembe crude had previously been added to the Bonny Light stream over three years ago until the Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL) incident affected production. Now, Nigeria has successfully revived Nembe as a separate grade.
NNPC has already sold the first batches of Nembe crude, with two shipments totaling 950,000 barrels going to France and the Netherlands. The crude is similar to other high-value Nigerian grades like Forcados, Bonga, and Egina, with a lower sulfur content. The price for low-sulfur crude is higher than the global Brent crude benchmark and competes well with other crude grades from Brazil and Azerbaijan.
Nembe's current production is approximately 50,000 barrels per day, with NNPC aiming to increase it to 80,000 barrels per day by the first quarter of next year and to 150,000 barrels per day by early 2025. In October, a survey by Cloud Bridge indicated that Nigeria's oil production was around 1.5 million barrels per day, up from 1.39 million barrels per day in September.
Nigeria is highly dependent on imported refined fuels due to inadequate domestic refining capacity and poor maintenance. The country is pinning its hopes on the Dangote Refinery, owned by Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, which is currently under construction and has a planned daily production capacity of 650,000 barrels. The refinery is expected to use crude oil with an API gravity between 29 and 34 degrees, with Nembe having an API gravity of 29.

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency...
07/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

"Oil Prices Hit 2.5-Month Low Amid China Data and Extended Production Cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia"

Oil prices touched a 2.5-month low on Tuesday as mixed economic data from China offset the impact of extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
As of 1242 GMT, Brent crude futures fell $1.45 to $83.73 per barrel, a 1.7% drop, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.24 at $79.58 per barrel, a 1.53% drop. Both reached their lowest levels since late August.
The relative near-month Brent crude contract's premium over the contract for loading six months later was also at a 2.5-month low, indicating that market participants are less concerned about current supply shortages.
Although China's crude oil imports in October showed strong year-on-year and month-on-month growth, the rate of export contraction was faster than expected.
Expectations of reduced crude oil production by Chinese refineries in November and December could limit oil demand and exacerbate price declines.
As investor enthusiasm for a global interest rate peak waned, global equities, which often trade in tandem with oil, lost momentum on Tuesday. In addition, the U.S. dollar has risen from recent lows, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
On the supply side, in addition to the broader agreement among the OPEC+ production countries group, the market is watching whether Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to voluntarily control production after the end of this year.
Commerzbank said, "Looking ahead to 2024, Saudi Arabia could find it difficult to withdraw production cuts at the end of this year, after all, any expansion of Saudi oil production would face the risk of oversupply in the first half of next year." in a note.
API industry data on U.S. crude inventories is expected to be released after 2000 GMT.

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency...
07/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

Cloud Bridge columnist :"Steady Saudi Decisions Indicate Rising Concerns Over Crude Oil Demand"

Saudi Arabia has made two recent decisions that, on the surface, suggest stability in the oil market, but may indicate growing concerns about demand conditions.
The world's largest oil exporter has announced that it will keep the benchmark crude oil prices stable for its Asian customers' December shipments and declared that it will maintain voluntary production cuts until the year's end.
State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) stated on Monday that it will keep the official selling price (OSP) of major Arab light-grade cargoes loaded by Asian refineries in December unchanged, at a premium of $4 per barrel. This ends five consecutive price increases for this grade, which, in turn, has led to lower profit margins for Asian refineries as they face higher crude oil costs they can't fully pass on through higher product prices.
Given weak recent refining profits, the market expected the OSP for Asian Arab light crude to remain unchanged. The per-barrel profit for a typical Singapore refinery ended Monday at $4.04, up from a recent low of $1.45 on October 17. However, it remains well below the 2023 peak of $15.40 on August 28.
In an environment of economic uncertainty, soft demand for refined products in Asia may also have played a role in Saudi Aramco's decision to maintain the Arab light OSP.
Although concerns about supply have increased due to the long-standing bloody conflict between Israel and Gaza's Hamas, the situation has eased in recent days as there have been no actual interruptions in oil shipments from the Middle East.
It's worth noting that Saudi Aramco did raise the OSP for its Arab Extra Light crude, which has similar qualities to global benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude. The December OSP for the cargo carries a premium of $4.05 per barrel over Oman/Dubai, higher than the $3.35 per barrel for November shipments.
The increase in Arab Extra Light crude prices reflects the recent strength in prices for light high-sulfur crude.
However, it also suggests that Asian refineries might seek cheaper cargoes from the Atlantic Basin, particularly as the premium of Brent crude over Dubai has trended narrower in recent weeks, falling to around 47 cents per barrel in early Tuesday trading, below the recent peak of $4.15 on September 28.
Production Cuts Saudi Arabia announced on November 5 that it will extend the voluntary 1 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut for an additional month in December.
In addition to the cuts agreed upon as part of the broader OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia began additional production cuts in July, ostensibly to stabilize the crude oil market, although most observers believed the cuts were aimed at boosting prices.
The extension of the additional 1 million bpd daily cut might suggest that crude oil demand isn't as robust as OPEC expected.
It's worth noting that oil produced and exported in December won't reach Asian refineries for several weeks, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may not be anticipating a surge in crude oil demand in the first quarter of 2024.
Data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed that Asian crude oil imports in October exhibited some resilience, rising from 26.60 million bpd in September to 27.36 million bpd.
However, in terms of daily barrels, the total imports for October were only the sixth-highest monthly total for 2023, indicating that the largest importing region had lost some crude oil demand in the second half of this year.
China, the world's largest importer, took in 11.9 million bpd in October, up from 11.18 million bpd in September, but both months were below August's 12.49 million bpd.
August was supposed to be the last month of purchasing crude oil before further production cuts by Saudi Arabia resulted in a strong price rise in early July.
Brent crude futures rose from a low of $71.57 per barrel on June 28 to a high of $97.69 per barrel on September 28, as Saudi Arabia, the second-largest oil exporter in the world after Russia, tightened supply with Russia's help, cutting output by 300,000 bpd.
On Tuesday, Asian morning trading saw Brent crude prices fall to around $84.79 per barrel.
However, given the time lag between cargo schedules and actual deliveries, the high prices in August and September may become evident in November and December imports.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author, a columnist for Cloud Bridge.

"OPEC Secretary-General Optimistic About Global Economic Growth Despite Challenges"OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Gha...
07/11/2023

"OPEC Secretary-General Optimistic About Global Economic Growth Despite Challenges"

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais expressed optimism about global economic growth and its impact on fuel demand despite macro challenges such as high inflation and interest rates. Speaking at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, he mentioned that the United States is performing well, while Europe is facing difficulties. Even though China's reopening has been slower than expected, he forecasted economic growth to reach 4.5% to 5%, surpassing that of Europe.
Al Ghais stated, "When we talk about demand and our outlook, maybe in the short to medium term, despite all the challenges and pressures, we still see healthy global economic growth."
Official data on Tuesday indicated that China's crude oil imports in October increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the pace of export contraction was faster than expected.
Expectations of reduced crude oil production by Chinese refineries in November and December could limit oil demand and exacerbate price declines.
However, Al Ghais highlighted the optimistic outlook for demand growth in India and other Asian regions, with the global aviation industry expected to continue driving fuel demand. He said, "There is still room for improvement in the aviation sector, so we are quite optimistic about demand."
OPEC's forecast of demand growth exceeding 2 million barrels per day in 2024 contrasts with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of 880,000 barrels per day.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia (known as "OPEC+"), will convene later this month to formulate policies.
Al Ghais emphasized that OPEC+ has been proactive and taken preventive actions to ensure stability in the crude oil market.
When asked about his perspective on changes in global oil trade flows due to Europe avoiding Russian fuels since the Ukraine conflict began, Al Ghais stated that changes were already in progress before the conflict started in February last year and were determined by market dynamics.
He said, "Ultimately, oil flows to where the best demand centers and the best prices are."

"Crude Oil Prices Face Strong Resistance in Ongoing Downtrend, Bullish Reversal Uncertain"BCOUSD (Crude Oil/US Dollar) i...
07/11/2023

"Crude Oil Prices Face Strong Resistance in Ongoing Downtrend, Bullish Reversal Uncertain"

BCOUSD (Crude Oil/US Dollar) is undergoing a sustained bearish push in the daily (D1) time frame, as it aims to retest and potentially break below the last higher low (HL), marking a continuation of the downtrend. The market structure remains in a downtrend, with various imbalance candles and static liquidity forming as the bearish momentum continues. However, breaking below the last HL is proving challenging due to the strong support zone.
In the four-hour (H4) time frame, the dominant trend is also bearish, with limited opportunities for bullish moves. The bearish retest is ongoing, creating imbalance candles and liquidity as it aims to reach the last HL of the D1 chart. The bearish pressure is constant, but a shift to bullish dominance could occur if the bearish momentum wanes.
On the entry time frame (M15), the downtrend market structure continues to dominate, with a focus on retesting the last HL of the D1 chart. Despite the bearish push, the constant bullish reversal pressure has not resulted in a Break of Structure (BOS) so far.
Overall, the market trend remains in an uptrend, but a shift to a downtrend market structure will only occur if the ongoing bearish retest breaks below the last support zone of the D1 chart.
Trade Advice: Traders should use appropriate lot sizes based on their account sizes and monitor their short positions. Buying opportunities are not advisable unless a BOS occurs during the ongoing bearish retest.

"Gold Prices Hit 2023 Low as Dollar Gains, Investors Eye Federal Reserve Signals"As of 10:50 Greenwich Mean Time, spot g...
07/11/2023

"Gold Prices Hit 2023 Low as Dollar Gains, Investors Eye Federal Reserve Signals"

As of 10:50 Greenwich Mean Time, spot gold has fallen by 0.5% to $1,967.09 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since October 25. U.S. gold futures also dropped by 0.8% to $1,973.50 per ounce. This decline is attributed to the 0.4% rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, making gold more expensive for international buyers.
Market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa suggests that the gold market is awaiting further dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve before it can continue to rise. He also notes that gold prices are consolidating after slipping into overbought territory.
The recent uptick in gold prices in October, rising over 7%, was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tensions in the Middle East.
Investors are currently awaiting a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week, with a particular focus on Chairman Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.
Investors anticipate a 90% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the December meeting, with an almost 80% probability of a rate cut as early as June next year. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari has indicated that the central bank may have more work to do to control inflation.
Financial market analyst Kyle Rodda suggests that if demand in this week's government bond auctions is lukewarm, it could exert upward pressure on yields and create downward pressure on gold prices.
In addition to gold, other precious metals have also seen declines: spot silver fell by 1.6% to $22.66 per ounce, platinum dropped by 0.7% to $899.10 per ounce, and palladium fell by 1.3% to $1,092.22 per ounce, marking a 39% decline for the year.
UBS noted in a report that the shift from palladium to platinum as an alternative and increased electric vehicle sales may lead to structural surpluses in these metals next year, with a price target of $1,050 per ounce expected in the latter half of 2024.

"Gold Prices: Bearish Momentum Continues, Transitioning from Uptrend to Downtrend"XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar) is experiencin...
07/11/2023

"Gold Prices: Bearish Momentum Continues, Transitioning from Uptrend to Downtrend"

XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar) is experiencing a continued bearish push in the daily (D1) time frame, aiming to break below the last higher low (HL) and transition the market from an uptrend to a downtrend. The current bearish momentum is strong, with various imbalance candles forming as the downtrend retest continues.
In the four-hour (H4) time frame, the overall trend is also bearish, with limited bullish opportunities. The market is capturing liquidity along the way as it approaches the last HL of the H4 chart at around $1969. Unless the bearish momentum decreases, the dominant trend will remain bearish.
On the entry time frame (M15), the bearish trend is prominent as well, with a focus on breaking below the last support zone of the D1 time frame. Traders should exercise caution and consider locking in profits on short positions. New traders should choose lot sizes suitable for their accounts and exercise patience when seeking buying opportunities, only going long if a Break of Structure (BOS) occurs during the ongoing bearish retest towards the last HL of the daily time frame chart.

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency...
01/11/2023

User Contribution Instructions: This article is a user contribution, edited and proofread to ensure accuracy and fluency.

Investors await Fed statement on 2% rise in oil prices

Oil prices rose by approximately 2% on Wednesday amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies and in anticipation of clues about future interest rates in the statement to be released by the Federal Reserve.
As of 10:50 AM Eastern Time (1450 Greenwich Mean Time), Brent crude futures for January delivery rose by $1.63, or 1.9%, to $86.65 per barrel. However, the January contract is still below the settlement price of the December contract from Tuesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by $1.64, or 2.0%, to $82.66 per barrel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that for the week ending October 24, energy companies added 700,000 barrels to crude oil inventories, which was lower than the analysts' forecast of a 1.3 million barrel increase and the American Petroleum Institute's (API) reported increase of 1.3 million barrels the day before.
Analyst Phil Flynn told Cloud Bridge, "Nothing really exceeded expectations. This isn't enough to drive it. The increase in crude stockpiles is not as large as the market expected."
"The market will continue to be dominated by headlines from the Middle East, with concerns that the conflict could spread, leading to supply disruptions either by preventing Iranian oil from entering the market or Iran taking action to restrict the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz," he said. Andrew Lipow
Reports from sources and Egyptian media indicate that in Gaza, the first batch of wounded individuals has been evacuated to Egypt, and the Israeli military is intensifying its fighting with Hamas militants.
Official media reports say that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called on Muslim countries to stop exporting oil and food to Israel and demanded that Israel stop bombing the Gaza Strip.
According to U.S. energy data, Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with a crude oil production of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in 2022.
Commodity Director Callum Macpherson said, "If the war doesn't threaten production, and without the support of OPEC+, oil prices may have a hard time maintaining prices near recent highs until 2024, making the meeting later this month crucial."
Interest Rates It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain stable interest rates at the end of the policy meeting.
In Europe, a flash reading from the European Union's statistics office showed that the euro area's inflation rate in October reached the lowest level in two years, leading to the view that the European Central Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates soon. The Bank of England is expected to hold a meeting on Thursday.
Raising interest rates to combat inflation may slow economic growth and suppress oil demand.
A private survey showed that factory activity in China, the world's largest oil-importing country, unexpectedly contracted in October, exacerbating the previous day's pessimistic official data.

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