22/08/2026
Six national downturns in twenty years.
The longest ran 18 months.
2004 to 2008: nine months, down 4.1%.
2008 to 2011: twelve months, down 3.6%.
2011 to 2016: three months, down 0.3%.
2016 to 2019: eighteen months, down 8.5%.
2019 to 2020: three months, down 1.7%.
2020 to 2023: twelve months, down 4.7%.
Average across the six, about nine and a half months. Three of them were over inside a quarter.
Where we are now: the national index peaked in March 2026, and values fell 0.4 % in June, the largest monthly fall since December 2022.
Here is the part we will not pretend about. None of this tells you when this one ends, how deep it goes, or what happens in your suburb and your price band. Anyone using this data to say the bottom is near is guessing, and so is anyone using it to say wait.
What the history does suggest is that corrections tend to be shorter than the conversation about them. By the time one is confirmed in the data, a short one is often already half over.
So if you are trying to read your own market rather than the national headline, three things turn before medians do. Days on market in your suburb and price band. Vendor discounting, the gap between asking and sale price. And auction clearance rates, taken as a trend over a month or two rather than week to week.
None of them call the bottom. They tell you which way the market you are actually buying in is moving, which is a more useful question.
Sources: historical cycles, Domain Price Cycle, July 2026. Current market, Cotality Home Value Index, reported 1 July 2026. Average of the six cycles is our own calculation from Domain’s published figures.
General information only. Not financial, credit, legal or tax advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular property. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Property values can fall. Consider your own circumstances and obtain independent advice.
