Dubai Investment Inc, Level 18, BurJuman Business Tower, Mankhool (2026)

30/10/2020

国际金价似乎存在止跌迹象，但反弹力度仍相当薄弱。美欧新冠疫情病例再度飙升以及美国总统大选前景存在的不确定性令市场忧心忡忡，美元似乎易涨难跌。  

现货黄金上涨0.20%至1871.23美元/盎司；美元指数下滑0.07%至93.871。金价上日录得9月28日以来低点至1860.07美元/盎司，美元指数上日升至9月30日以来新高94.105。  

过去几周，多数西方国家单日新增病例创出纪录。许多国家政府开始实施更严格的措施，以遏制疫情蔓延。目前为止，全球已有超过4500万人染疫，近119万人病亡。  

欧洲重新成为全球疫情大爆发的中心，德国和法国已重新颁布封锁措施，几乎与3月和4月危机第一阶段的封锁措施一样严格，关闭了酒吧和餐馆，限制人员流动。  

美国周四(10月29日)单日新增病患创纪录新高。白宫病毒特别工作组就美国西部的疫情持续和广泛扩散发出警告，其成员敦促采取积极举措抑制感染病例增长。  

工作组成员兼美国国家过敏暨传染病研究所所长福奇称：“我们处于一条十分艰难的道路上。我们的方向错了。如果不做出改变，如果他们延续当前的路径，那么在新增病例、入院人数和死亡人数方面，美国都将承受很大痛苦。”   

美国总统大选定于11月3日举行。民意调查显示，民主党候选人拜登在全国范围内领先现任总统特朗普，但是在对最终结果起决定性作用的战场州中，领先优势则不明显。

30/10/2020

美元指数刷新近一个月高点至94.10，新冠病例激增继续刺激避险需求；欧元兑美元创两个月来最大单日跌幅，跌至9月以来最低，欧洲央行行长拉加德称欧洲央行12月“几乎无疑”会加码刺激政策。加元跑赢其它货币，而挪威克朗和瑞典克朗跌幅最大。

美元指数收涨0.50%至93.92；数据显示美国第三季经济成长创下纪录，且初请失业金人数趋势改善，这些数据提振风险意愿并提振股市，盘初这些数据损及作为避险工具的美元，但分析师表示，长期而言正面的经济数据应会扶助美元。

“尽管数据看起来很健康，但应该持保留态度，”他举例说，美国新冠病例的增加可能意味着更多的限制措施，这可能会破坏经济复苏。

不过，市场关注的焦点是欧洲央行，因为欧洲正在努力应对新冠病例激增的局面，这迫使德国和法国实施了全国范围的封锁，西班牙也实施了地区封锁。

欧元兑美元下跌0.61%至1.1674，稍早曾跌至四周低点1.1650；因欧洲央行行长拉加德描绘了欧洲经济复苏的严峻前景，并为未来几个月的进一步刺激打开了大门。拉加德表示，因新冠疫情与再度实施封锁可能导致经济二次衰退，“几乎无疑”会在12月就新的货币刺激方案达成共识，并将评估所有工具。欧元可能是本月月末持仓再平衡的“主要受益者”

欧洲央行周四维持利率稳定，但承诺将采取新的行动，遏制第二波疫情带来的日益严重的影响。该行表示，将在12月的会议上增强其应对措施。

欧洲央行行长拉加德在新闻发布会上表示，“我们所有人都同意，有必要在下次管理委员会会议上采取行动，从而调整我们的工具。”

纽约梅隆大学John Velis表示，提到评估所有工具“是一个变化--几乎可以保证12月份会采取一些行动，考虑到新的封锁措施，这是有道理的”。

道明证券策略师发布报告称，展望未来，我们认为欧洲央行10月份政策会议结果不会对欧元兑美元走势产生长久影响。短期风险仍然存在，但我们认为投资者将把注意力迅速转移到其他地方。

富国银行利率策略师Erik Nelson指出，如果你看看利率市场的价格走势，我们看到一些远期利率预期进一步下调。因此市场将欧洲央行的言论视为暗示将进一步降息。你还会看到欧洲整体上受到挑战的情况，这意味着更多的关停和更多的限制，比美国更严重。所以在这一点上这是一场令欧元承压的完美风暴。

美元兑日元上涨0.328至104.61；日本央行维持政策不变后在欧洲早盘跌至104.03，为近五周低点。美元兑瑞郎涨0.52%，至0.9152，稍早触及三周高位0.9172。

29/10/2020

亚洲时段，日本央行决定维持政策不变，反映出随着生产和出口改善，日本经济从创纪录的收缩中持续出现复苏迹象，不过日本央行再次表示，如果需要，准备采取进一步行动。随着新冠感染人数再度激增，经济悲观情绪正在迅速蔓延，外界呼吁欧洲央行暗示向欧洲经济提供更大、更长期支持。这让即将于今晚21:30召开发布会的欧洲央行行长拉加德面临压力。美国大选结果出炉之前黄金多头料难有所起色，但下破1850依然需要较大的外力推动。   

亚洲时段行情回顾:
亚盘时段，美元兑日元小幅走高，汇价现报104.42，涨幅0.1%；日本央行决定维持政策不变，反映出随着生产和出口改善，日本经济从创纪录的收缩中持续出现复苏迹象，不过日本央行再次表示，如果需要，准备采取进一步行动。资产购买的增加帮助保持了市场相对稳定，而约1万亿美元的贷款计划确保了陷入困境的企业能够获得信贷，而不是走向破产。

亚盘时段，欧元兑美元震荡，汇价现报1.1751，涨幅0.04%；随着新冠感染人数再度激增，经济悲观情绪正在迅速蔓延，外界呼吁欧洲央行暗示向欧洲经济提供更大、更长期支持。这让即将于今晚21:30召开发布会的欧洲央行行长拉加德面临压力，她一方面必须暗示欧洲央行致力于保持超宽松的融资环境，另一方面又不能过于抬高市场的期望值，以免在12月即便推出大规模刺激措施，仍会令市场感到失望。丹斯克银行分析师Piet Haines Christiansen表示，“拉加德必须小心行事，要有采取更多行动的开放心态，无需预先承诺，但我认为市场略为失望的风险较大，而不是出现鸽派的意外。”

亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于1880附近，现报1881.34美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%；疫情升级将再度阶段性放慢欧美复工节奏并拖累部分需求，进而拖累资产价格的相对表现和汇率，也推升美元指数。不过日内美元指数未能进一步走高，大选结果出炉之前黄金多头料难有所起色，但下破1850依然需要较大的外力推动。

亚盘时段，国际油价弱势交投，美油现报37.52美元/桶，涨幅0.35%；布伦特原油现报39.7美元/桶，涨幅0.15%；EIA原油库存增幅超预期，但汽油和精炼油有所下降，库存信号多空不一。美国和欧洲的新冠病例数激增促使政府重新实施停摆措施，并加剧了燃料需求将遭遇新一轮下降的预期。此外，美国原油产量上周也大幅增加，不过可能在明年也徘徊在1100万桶/日左右，难以继续复苏。

29/10/2020

现货黄金温和反弹，对隔夜跌势进行调整，目前交投于1878.38美元/盎司附近；隔夜黄金迎来一波大幅下跌，跌幅达1.61%，因没有迹象显示美国即将出台任何财政刺激措施来缓解新冠疫情对经济的冲击，投资者纷纷买入美元，美元指数创11个交易日来最大涨幅，拖累金价下跌。另外，美国大选由于特朗普支持率有所上升导致美元有所看涨，黄金暂时处于守势。  

疫情方面，欧洲两大核心国德国与法国28日纷纷宣布全境封城，欧洲股市全线下跌，拖累欧元下跌，支撑美元，美国道指和标普500指数同样录得6月以来最大跌幅。  

日内数据出炉较多，包括美国第三季度GDP与核心PCE物价指数、德国10月失业率与CPI等。央行方面，关注日本央行与欧洲央行公布的利率决议与两位央行行长的发言。  

刺激计划遥遥无期，金价创11个交易日最大跌幅昨日特朗普亲口承认，美国两党关于刺激法案的出台在大选前已经几无可能，致使此前一直受此支撑的金价大幅下跌，为近11个交易日以来的最大跌幅。 RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示，"目前金属对更多刺激措施的依赖程度非常高，现在看跌阵营完全掌控了局面。"

美国大选双方支持率差距缩小，不确定性使做空美元的头寸削减
调查显示，民主党总统候选人拜登在全国范围的支持率领先共和党总统特朗普10个百分点。不过，有迹象表明特朗普的支持率正在逐步攀升，大选结果存在高度不确定性，就像2016年大选一样，特朗普有可能存在再度爆冷当选的可能性。

从民调来看，拜登一直大幅领先，拜登如果上台，市场预计民主党将推出大规模刺激计划使得美元走弱，市场因此对美元普遍看空。随着大选逼近，形势有所变化，导致部分投资人开始削减做空头寸，美元有所走强，28日美元上涨0.45%，黄金偏空运行。

欧洲疫情恶化德法双双封国，欧美股市全线大跌
欧洲二次疫情爆发呈现失控状态，股市下滑加之经济疲软，欧元兑美元此前连续三日下跌，投资者纷纷转向美元以避险，这增加了黄金空头的信心。

德国总理默克尔周三表示，德国将实施为期一个月的紧急封锁措施，包括关闭餐厅、健身房和剧院，以扭转新增病例数激增的局面，这一波感染有可能让医院不堪重负。默克尔表示，“我们现在需要采取行动”，最近感染人数急剧上升已推动了足够的政治和公众支持，以采取新的强硬措施来减少接触并控制疫情。

欧洲股市周三全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌4.4%，法国CAC40指数跌4.25%，英国富时100指数跌3.02%，欧洲股市所有板块均大幅下跌，德股因紧急封锁措施一度骤降5%录得6月以来最差表现。

美国股市周三同样大跌，道琼斯工业指数收在7月底以来最低，抛售在收盘前最后几分钟加速，道指和标普500指数均录得6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。

“很明显，疫情已经失控，病例数正在飙升，情况很糟，病毒会消失的概念只是一个错误的假设。”

28/10/2020

The GBP/USD pair rallied around 55-60 pips from daily swing lows and shot to fresh daily tops, near the 1.3060 region in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter.

The pair continued attracting some dip-buying near the key 1.3000 psychological mark, or 200-day SMA support and was being supported by a mildly softer tone surrounding the US dollar. Despite negative news surrounding the second wave of coronavirus infections, the greenback struggled to gain any meaningful traction on the back of growing wariness about the US presidential election.

The incoming polls have been indicating a solid lead for the Democrat candidate Joe Biden over the incumbent President Donald Trump. However, a narrow gap in certain key swing states fueled uncertainty about the actual outcome. This, in turn, held the USD bulls on the defensive and was seen as a key factor that assisted the GBP/USD pair to snap three consecutive days of the losing streak.

Apart from this, a modest rebound in the equity markets further undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status. However, the slow progress in the US stimulus talks, along with worries about the potential economic impact of fresh coronavirus-induced lockdown measures might keep a lid on the optimism. This should continue to benefit the USD's status as the global reserve currency.

The USD remained depressed through the early North American session and seemed rather unimpressed by Tuesday's release of stronger-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data. In fact, the headline orders expanded by 1.9% MoM in September while orders excluding transportation increased by 0.8% as against consensus estimates pointing to a growth of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the upside for the GBP/USD pair is more likely to remain limited as investors await for updates from extended Brexit talks before placing fresh directional bets. It is worth recalling that he EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier has extended his stay in London until Wednesday. The development was seen as a positive sign raised hopes for a last-minute Brexit trade deal.

Investors, however, remain sceptic about a deal amid differences over the key sticking point of fisheries. This, eventually, kept a lid on any strong gains for the GBP/USD pair, which has now retreated around 25-30 pips from daily tops and was last seen trading with only modest gains, around the 1.3030 region.

28/10/2020

EUR/USD has bounced from a fresh weekly low of 1.1795 but remains within familiar levels as dull trading across the FX board continues. The pair is neutral in the near-term and needs to advance beyond 1.1870 to gain strength.

“The greenback gained some ground on the usual market concerns, related to the latest coronavirus outbreak in Europe, which, according to the WHO has become the new epicentre. Also, speculative interest has finally realized that a week ahead of the US presidential election, a stimulus bill will stay away from the table until after the event.”

“The US has just published September Durable Goods Orders, which came in much better than anticipated. The monthly figure printed at 1.9% against the 0.5% expected, while the core reading, Nondefense Capital Orders ex Aircraft, resulted in 1% against expectations of 0.5%. August reading was upwardly revised to 2.1%. The good news did little for markets, as no relevant move was seen in dollar crosses or in US indexes.”

“The short-term picture is neutral, according to the 4-hour chart, as the EUR/USD pair remains unable to surpass a mildly bearish 20 SMA, now struggling around it. The longer moving averages remain below the current level, with limited directional strength. Technical indicators, in the meantime, are stuck to their midlines.”

27/10/2020

The EUR/USD pair is at risk of falling further as equities fall on risk-aversion providing support to the greenback. Poor US and German data are fueling the negative sentiment. 

“European equities trade in the red, led by the German DAX which losses roughly 2.5%. The IFO survey showed that the Business Climate in the country contracted to 92.7 in October from 93.2, missing expectations. The assessment of the current situation surged to 90.3, but expectations over the future also fell coming in at 95.”

“Wall Street is set to open in the red, further weighed by poor US data. The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from 1.11 in August to 0.27. The country will publish September New Home sales and the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in the upcoming session.”

“The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, although above the 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have limited directional strength, but hold within negative territory.”

“The EUR/USD pair has an immediate support level at 1.1770, the level to break to put the pair in the bearish path.”

27/10/2020

Gold has made its way back above the $1,900 level, attempting to recover. Earlier, it dropped as Democrats and Republicans blamed each other for "moving the goal posts" on fiscal stimulus talks. The precious metal continues having a robust correlation with speculation about a multi-trillion relief package from Washington.

Election uncertainty is also weighing on markets, but having a more muted impact on XAU/USD.

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that XAU/USD is capped under $1.909, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle. As the graphic below shows, it is the most robust level.

Looking up, the next target is $1,923, which is a juncture of lines including the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2, the 50-day Simple Moving Average, and the PP one-week R1.

Some support awaits at $1,891, which is the confluence of the BB 4h-Lower and the PP one-day S1.

Further down, gold has further support at $1,883, which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 23.6 and the one-month, the PP one-day S2.

26/10/2020

Cable needs to break above 1.3120 to allow for the continuation of the upside pressure.

24-hour view:
“We highlighted last Friday that GBP ‘could drift lower but any weakness is unlikely to extend much below 1.3030’. We added, ‘the next support at 1.2990 is unlikely to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong as GBP dipped to a low of 1.3017 before recovering slightly. The underlying tone has weakened somewhat and from here, GBP could drift lower but is unlikely to break the strong support at 1.2990 (1.3020 is already quite a strong level). Resistance is at 1.3085 followed by 1.3120.”

Next 1-3 weeks:
“After GBP surged to a high of 1.3135, we indicated last Thursday (22 Oct, spot at 1.3135) that ‘there is room for further GBP strength towards 1.3250 but it is left to be seen if GBP can maintain a foothold above this level’. Since then, GBP has not been able to make much headway on the upside. Upward momentum is beginning to ease but only a break of 1.2990 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upside risk has dissipated. Meanwhile, in order to rejuvenate the current flagging momentum, GBP has to move and stay above 1.3120 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further GBP strength would diminish quickly.”

26/10/2020

The American dollar remained under selling pressure at the end of the week, amid political jitters in the US. Republicans and Democrats have continued to discuss a coronavirus stimulus aid package, reporting progress in discussions and indicating that they were “almost there” on an agreement. At the same time, however, politicians said that chances of a bill being approved before the presidential election are quite slim.

The EUR/USD pair settled at the upper end of its latest range, around 1.1860. Speculative interest ignored coronavirus-related news coming from the EU, as several countries reported record numbers of new cases while the health systems are showing their first signs of stress.

Governments have refused to impose full lockdowns, but are clearly moving in such direction, which will mean a further delay in a possible economic recovery. Things in the US, however, are no better, as the country a record high of 82,668 cases on Saturday. The world reported roughly 490K new contagions on Friday.

GBP/USD finished the week above 1.3000, with limited bullish potential. Investors are cautiously optimistic about Brexit talks after French President Emmanuel Macron has said to the local fishing industry to brace for impact, somehow indicated that a deal is closer.

Commodity-linked currencies held within familiar levels throughout the week, trapped between the broad US dollar’s weakness and lower gold and oil prices. Gold settled around $1,900 a troy ounce while WTI finished the week below $40.00 a barrel.

The US presidential campaign heated up after the final debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. As of today, Biden is still leading national polls, although Trump seems to be cutting off the distance as the date approaches.

25/10/2020

The euro’s bearish correction seen earlier during the early North American session has been contained at 1.1825 and the pair bounced up again to test intraday highs at 1.1860.

Euro resumes its uptrend as risk aversion eases
The common currency has shrugged off the sluggish eurozone data and the increase of COVID-19 infections in the continent and remains positive against the US dollar. The greenback has been on the back foot most of the week amid the uncertainty about the outcome of the US Presidential elections and the lack of progress on the coronavirus stimulus negotiations.

The macroeconomic calendar, however, has not been supportive of the euro as the preliminary Eurozone business activity has shown mixed figures. Despite the larger than expected increase in the manufacturing index, services sector activity has contracted further, with Germany and France showing weaker than expected prints, which suggests that the second COVID-19 wave might be affecting the incipient economic recovery.

24/10/2020

The GBP/USD broke below 1.3050 and tumbled to 1.3017, hitting a fresh two day low. The move lower took place amid a recovery of the US dollar across the board. The retreat in equity markets also hit the pound that dropped to fresh lows.

The greenback gained momentum as equity prices in Wall Street move lower. The Dow Jones is now in red, falling 0.10% and the Nasdaq drops 0.18%. The greenback strengthened during the American session. Expectations about a new round of fiscal stimulus are diminishing. US economic data showed activity continued to recover in October.

The pound is under pressure ahead of the weekend. EUR/GBP rose to 0.9089, reaching the highest level in two days and turned positive for the week. The Brexit saga continues to be a key driver in GBP.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD intraday's outlook continues to point to the downside. Below 1.3020, a test of 1.3000 seems likely. A recovery to 1.3075 would alleviate the pressure and a consolidation above 1.3100 would change the bias.

The weekly chart shows the pound is about to post the highest close since late August, but far from the top, suggesting difficulties in extending the upside.

Dubai Investment Inc

30/10/2020

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